“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs better than 12z but still may need to be tossed. 

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

Yup. Good job buddy.  Go hit the showers. 

[Typhoon Tip]

MAUL popping up on some recent guidance tools.  Will and I were anticipating this a couple days ago.  It's interesting that it seemed almost less evident yesterday but is here now.   

[Spanks45]

4 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It will def be snowing but I don't expect more than an additional coating to an inch by 3pm though 

I was impressed how much snow you had down there, close to an inch...while we had just a few wet snowflakes

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It did so well…now going back on a bender. Oh well…it had the right idea on the big storm coming…commendable. 

My take is that it did it's job sniffing out the larger scale synoptic landscape that will allow this historic impact around here.....but it's passed the baton at this point because it's not designed to handle the shorter-term nuances and mesoscale features of cyclogenesis, banding etc.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Right out of the Kocin playbook

oh you guys beat me to it

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MAUL popping up on some recent guidance tools.  Will and I were anticipating this a couple days ago.  It's interesting that it seemed almost less evident yesterday but is here now.   

Can you explain this to me? Never really understood what that is...

[codfishsnowman]

53 minutes ago, Wonkis said:

Travel ban and state of emergency in Rhode Island.

State and local response to recent storms has been a bit...lax (cough)...to this point in the season.

 

RI definitely should have one and so as should Massachusetts from Worcester S/E and at least central and eastern Long Island 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can you explain this to me? Never really understood what that is...

MAUL means “Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer”….it is usually an area of steep lapse rates aloft that can enhance upward lift (like in a thunderstorm)….its why Scooter was joking about an EML getting advected in aloft. When you see that, it increases the chances of thundersnow and very heavy rates. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

Ha, hadn't seen this...exactly.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

Nice analog hope its better than your Red Sox one lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

MAUL means “Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer”….it is usually an area of steep lapse rates aloft that can enhance upward lift (like in a thunderstorm)….its why Scooter was joking about an EML getting advected in aloft. When you see that, it increases the chances of thundersnow and very heavy rates. 

I figured it meant T-snow...hahah Thanks.

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

Goofus normally gets yanked by the 3rd giving up a bunch of runs and leaving RISP when the pitching change happens... Good on it to get a solid quality start

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[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured it meant T-snow...hahah Thanks.

We MAULED in 11 13 15 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MAUL popping up on some recent guidance tools.  Will and I were anticipating this a couple days ago.  It's interesting that it seemed almost less evident yesterday but is here now.   

Yeah.  You two honed in on it

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

RI definitely should have one and so as should Massachusetts from Worcester S/E and at least central and eastern Long Island 

Fuck it.  I’m gonna send it

[tavwtby]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

MAUL means “Moist Absolutely Unstable Layer”….it is usually an area of steep lapse rates aloft that can enhance upward lift (like in a thunderstorm)….its why Scooter was joking about an EML getting advected in aloft. When you see that, it increases the chances of thundersnow and very heavy rates. 

sort of like CAPE value? I've wondered myself the difference. TIA

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured it meant T-snow...hahah Thanks.

Look for environmental lapse rates higher (steeper) than the moist adiabats on soundings

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS did its job. Gave us 7 great innings, but it’s gassed now. Bullpen (mesos) can bring this one home. 

Mariano on the mound now. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I figured it meant T-snow...hahah Thanks.

Here's a good visual and this is probably one of the more impressive MAULs you usually see

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can you explain this to me? Never really understood what that is...

It stands for Moist or maybe it's mixed .. Absolute Unstable Layer.  It's basically where the WCB splits near the occlusion triple point - the eastern split rides up the warm frontal glide and discipates into the entrance jet regions.  The western split is the goodies!  It peels back west on the N side of the cyclone cylinder..., rising over the cold wedge that is on the N and NW side of the occluded formation, where it is made to be exceptionally unstable in an elevated layer.  This is where it services us with lightning and thunder snow rates, particularly if there is a 300 mb entrance jet fan on the N side of occluded boundary.   That gives it a difluence assist and the lift can be insane where MAUL is delivering warm moist air ( into the snow growth region in cold cyclone models).    I'll try and draw a picture of this... 

[tavwtby]

CT SOE in effect now as well in case anyone didn't know, cause I didn't until I got the notification...

[dan11295]

18z Models seems to be honing in on low track just outside the BM. 

[codfishsnowman]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It did so well…now going back on a bender. Oh well…it had the right idea on the big storm coming…commendable. 

I'm telling ya the GFS hasn't worked so hard in a dog's age and the NAM is going to need a break as well

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mariano on the mound now. 

G7 2001?

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mariano on the mound now. 

With Big Papi coming to bat.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, tavwtby said:

CT SOE in effect now as well in case anyone didn't know, cause I didn't until I got the notification...

EMAWX warned of this Friday night while shoveling , posting, making arrow maps, refreshing models , texting group pics of snowbanks and leaving small children indoors alone at 1:40 AM

[Lava Rock]

I’ve been naked and free before, but never quite this naked or this free

Electric Blue is hiring

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[tavwtby]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Electric Blue is hiring

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it's going to be an entertaining 24 hours huh

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

I don't blame him. He's been on the outside looking in many times even when the heavier amounts are towards the coast. I hope him and runaway and Seymour get 30 inches

You're a good sport. Hope you get nailed too.