“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Don’t speak

What 

[Baroclinic Zone]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon tucks the low a little more. Still an absolute mauling for eastern areas, definitely somewhat of a haircut west. But almost noise 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What 

 

[wxsniss]

18 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well I pulled the trigger.  Will be arriving 1:09AM tomorrow overnight.   Returning to RSW Tuesday with a 6:45 PM departure which will likely be delayed.  I’m in no way missing this.

Legendary move by a legendary OG poster for what looks to be a legendary storm.

A few key synoptic variables in flux to determine place in history is timing of maturation... yesterday trended later / better for SNE vs. today trended a bit earlier / better for Philly/NYC/LI... could be in flux through Sunday. And obviously track... today maybe trended better tucking more NW on mesos.

19z NBM output... along with the winds, this is shaping up to be historic:

[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I didn’t realize the differential between the pressures was so high. To me that would suggest winds gusting well past 70.

One thing to keep in mind overall though.  There have been a number of coastal storms since the Bliz of 78 w/ high-low pressure differences greater, and they were *not* anything like the  Bliz of 78 for total snowfall or max wind gusts, so pressure difference alone does not tell the entire story.

Still though, this will be a high-end event and I would not be surprised to see gusts 80-90 mph on the coast from the Delmarva to BOS.

[vortex95]

And how about this?  Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook.  How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard????  I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU!  But if anyone knows something similar, please post!
 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie still meager relatively speaking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

dead nuts even at day 6, impressive

 

 

Other models waffling....JMA, sitn' back smiln'...

[dendrite]

Well I may have to eat my words. Those more conservative 3k nam and hrrr gust products are probably the highest I’ve seen them in a coastal. I’d definitely be tempted to slap a BW across the entire CWA after seeing those. I haven’t looked at much wind wise beyond there…just finished clearing snow.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie still meager relatively speaking. 

nice band Berks to Northern NJ

[ineedsnow]

we snow!! dusting so far

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

One thing to keep in mind overall though.  There have been a number of coastal storms since the Bliz of 78 w/ high-low pressure differences greater, and they were *not* anything like the  Bliz of 78 for total snowfall or max wind gusts, so pressure difference alone does not tell the entire story.

Still though, this will be a high-end event and I would not be surprised to see gusts 80-90 mph on the coast from the Delmarva to BOS.

Absolutely with this signature taking place now.

[Prismshine Productions]

Albany went 4-10", watches up

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

In what way

I hear you....always leery when all of the jeering is coming from guys well south of you...you do't know whether to laugh or cry-

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we snow!! dusting so far

It's the wonder of nature, baby!

[Henry's Weather]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Those estimated ratios are crazy… given QPF, probably want to shave off roughly 15% of forecasted totals

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

And how about this?  Look at the DY2 SPC tstm outlook.  How often do you see such a large area of general tstms outlooked on the COLD side coastal storm, never mind a full-fledged blizzard????  I can't recall such a large general tstm area for a KU!  But if anyone knows something similar, please post!
 

18z NAM bufkit for Groton, CT

check out that lapse rate from 700-500

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well I may have to eat my words. Those more conservative 3k nam and hrrr gust products are probably the highest I’ve seen them in a coastal. I’d definitely be tempted to slap a BW across the entire CWA after seeing those. I haven’t looked at much wind wise beyond there…just finished clearing snow.

[512high]

Just got in from snowblowing my own property, WMUR TV has Nashua 8-12" did this dive more south since early am?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That would probably be 6-10” here to CON

I had you 5-10" and KCON right near the line of 5-10"/10-15".

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowing here 

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, kdxken said:

1048 vs 984

1049 vs 967 

Same distance 

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well I may have to eat my words. Those more conservative 3k nam and hrrr gust products are probably the highest I’ve seen them in a coastal. I’d definitely be tempted to slap a BW across the entire CWA after seeing those. I haven’t looked at much wind wise beyond there…just finished clearing snow.

Im Honestly surprised they don’t have it all the way back to at least ORH county and most of CT E of the river at minimum. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Im Honestly surprised they don’t have it all the way back to at least ORH county and most of CT E of the river at minimum. 

Yeah though they had watches until noon. Seems like everyone is a bit hesitant to ramp up because of how this looked 36 hours ago.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah though they had watches until noon. Seems like everyone is a bit hesitant to ramp up because of how this looked 36 hours ago.

Reminds me of the hesitancy prior to October 2011 storm. That one ramped up close too and it had the added stigma of being so early which caused a lot of procrastination on the warnings. 
 

This is nuts on the models…people should be warned for this one. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Oh hell yeah!

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah though they had watches until noon. Seems like everyone is a bit hesitant to ramp up because of how this looked 36 hours ago.

Blizzard watches are still a thing?

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LBSW. 12z was better 

Often guidance never really catches up to the later maturation.

[MegaMike]

Shameless bump. I ran an analysis simulation w/WRF for the 78' blizzard that evaluated well