“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

Love it and these are my boys. 

That was a scary succession of posts… lol

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is a slight tick se with QPF on the 12z GFS.

Yet the AI version has the best look yet....definitely a good study at the end of the season with regards to the AI vs OG OP runs

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

 

 

Love it and these are my boys. 

It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That was a scary succession of posts… lol

Its a subtle cut back over the interior.

[ineedsnow]

CMC way better compared to 0z

[Damage In Tolland]

It actually shows rain on the Cape for a portion 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was just going on what I was told.....

I know just having fun. I think more than a Messenger shuffle we as Tipper suggest tick NW and as you suggest no LBSW. I wish I lived on the EM coast for this one.  Gusts to 70

I still have JUNO vibes 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise?

It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a subtle cut back over the interior.

You gotta love that run for YBY

[CT Valley Snowman]

GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow.  Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography.  I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind.  

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its a subtle cut back over the interior.

Don’t worry there will be 2 or 3 20 burgers for you on the charts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 

I don’t believe for a second the Euro is done coming NW

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Feels like we’re maxing west trends currently. I’d fully expect a jog east.

i think the Jan 22 references are legit. This obviously isn’t as potent of a system. However, that slowly faded SE over the last couple days.

It was obviously an all time event here because we got in the deformation band, but that was originally modeled way west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 

I liked 06z (right) better.

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

80mb pressure gradient.  This will be unforgettable for many of us.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 

That assumes the Euro is locked in place. Not convinced of that. 

Not saying the shuffle won't happen, which is why we need as hard a NW trend as possible to give us room. 

[MuddyWx]

My guess is GEFS will either be similar or a bit better than 6z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t believe for a second the Euro is done coming NW

Oh it will come nw no doubt but even 70/30 gfs/euro compromise still leaves alot of potential on the table.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF 

[Cyclone-68]

My Cape friend in Falmouth is starting to get nervous a little bit 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF 

Digging in....I see what some are saying, it is a hair N with the SLP....QPF distribution discrepancy is probably noise.

GEFS will likely be better.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

My Cape friend in Falmouth is starting to get nervous a little bit 

About? 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow.  Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography.  I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind.  

I saw that earlier but didn't want to say anything.. I know all to well about that.. it still gives me nightmares thinking about how much that use to suck lol

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It actually shows rain on the Cape for a portion 

which model? I couldn't find it

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would be very surprising if it doesnt tick se and compromise with euro. 

What if the Euro comes NW and comps with the GFS 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow.  Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography.  I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind.  

If we get a deep layer easterly fetch, that will happen....and east slopes of ORH will rival se MA for JP...especially with CJ capability reduced given decreased SST/land lapse.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

About? 

Oh, IDK,,,living on the ocean with an 81mb PG

[mahk_webstah]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was headed that way and it still found a way to curl in…we’ll see. We’re trending nw but would anyone honestly be surprised if the gfs makes the SE tick for a model compromise?

No would t be surprising but seems this might be headed nw.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

What if the Euro comes NW and comps with the GFS 

They will both tick to each other, to some degree, is what I’m thinking. 

[codfishsnowman]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

GFS with the CTRV qpf shadow.  Hopefully it's getting a bit too cute with the topography.  I know it's too early to fret about such things, it's just always in the back of my mind.  

6-8 would still be pretty good considering what's not happening today and didn't happen Wednesday.

 

No one wants to see a deform band of 2-4/hr goodies parked overhead with awesome snow growth more than we do. We just have to pray. I'm sick of these messenger shuffles!!!!!