“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Masswx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter and Jr both sleeping naked tonight?

Potentially 

[dryslot]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Is there any legitimacy to the 18z runs not being as accurate? 

No, But some think there is, Every run gets current data, I commented earlier about the Euro having it at 18z seeing its the last global out in that timeframe.

[MJO812]

Omg eps

Im naked

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the AIFS doing what it did gives more confidence that the euro shift is legit but we will obv want to see it hold at 00z

I suspect it's real. @dryslotmade a great point about the data ingest. Hey, I will fully admit if I missed the boat here and try to learn from it.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

975 mb chugging way north of 12z still on the southern Side of models but the best run of the euro for This storm in days

And you gave up last night. This could trend into what we were seeing on some models five or six days ago.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I suspect it's real. @dryslotmade a great point about the data ingest. Hey, I will fully admit if I missed the boat here and try to learn from it.

this is sick

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Potentially 

Kick mom out of bed and replace with the KU book.

[1985 Polar Bear]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Nailed it.

Enjoy!

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

What else is new

[vortex95]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy shit AIFS!!!

So what is going on here?  The ECMWF AI has consistently been more impressive than its op run, esp. at 500 w/ the intensity of the 500 low cut-off when it moves off the E Coast.  Now it is even more aggressive at 18z w/ an intense symmetric closed 500 low not far S of ACK at 96 hr, and a SNE crushing.  So given the short history of AI versions vs. its own op, which one usually "wins?"

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter and Jr both sleeping naked tonight?

Damn man, you should probably keep your fantasies hidden from the rest of us.

[CCHurricane]

3 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

It did, not all the way but a huge shift. 

00z runs will be TENSE...

[HoarfrostHubb]

I didn’t mean to imply that this could be a burp run just because it was 18z. 
Like Jeff said, more, newer data.   I want to see at least one additional run of all the majors before I feel confident. 

[dryslot]

0z should tell the tale if this 18z run burped or not but i think its on to some changes.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

It did, not all the way but a huge shift. 

First run to ingest recon data and voila 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I may have to stay up late and do a preemptive social media post in advance of a first call tomorrow.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may have to stay up late and do a preemptive social media post in advance of a first call tomorrow.

We up late. High and quite possibly…naked. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 1985 Polar Bear said:

Enjoy!

My weekly watering hole

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

As is the prisoner in back seat 

[brooklynwx99]

[JACKASS]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

With the prisoner in back seat 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

0z should tell the tale if this 18z run burped or not but i think its on to some changes.

Agreed. 00z has been my target to take this seriously as we are getting into that 72-84hr timeframe.

[SnoSki14]

Man this "hobby" sucks lol

It's like gambling, you get so excited with a win only to likely lose it all next hand. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

So what is going on here?  The ECMWF AI has consistently been more impressive than its op run, esp. at 500 w/ the intensity of the 500 low cut-off when it moves off the E Coast.  Now it is even more aggressive at 18z w/ an intense symmetric closed 500 low not far S of ACK at 96 hr, and a SNE crushing.  So given the short history of AI versions vs. its own op, which one usually "wins?"

The AI EURO has been a bit more waffly the last 3-4 events beyond like 60 hours.  I felt through February it never moved once on anything inside like 108.  The systems this month its definitely bit more bouncy

[Baroclinic Zone]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Omg eps

Im naked

Just bend that antifa prisoner over and unload.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

lol this just got real

[78Blizzard]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

From MA forum.

That includes snow from tomorrow's system.

[Cyclone-68]

Wankum basically dismissing the Monday storm has me more excited

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

Imma Wank it basically now until Monday when the storm hits. This has me super excited

That’s a long time and a lot of recovery in between. Good luck!