“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah GGEM is basically a whiff. Some light snows for eastern areas but nothing of significance. 

This is what I think happens...it won't be sunny, but we'll end up with some sort of regurgitation of dynamics...throw a bib on mother nature, and then smear the content onto SNE.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Major climatological hedge against DC/Delmarva getting 2+ feet with a scrape for the northeast coast. I'm sure it's happened, but the extreme rarity convinces me this isn't close to the final iteration of this storm.

It's not extremely rare.   Many massive events clipped shy of getting this far N.  Just being fair

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I think happens...it won't be sunny, but we'll end up with some sort of regurgitation of dynamics...throw a bib on mother nature, and then smear the content onto SNE.

Gagagoogoo…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gagagoogoo…

Two in diapers now, don't need to change mother nature this weekend.

[Typhoon Tip]

The last 3 consecutive runs of the CMC were progressively less

[George001]

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I think happens...it won't be sunny, but we'll end up with some sort of regurgitation of dynamics...throw a bib on mother nature, and then smear the content onto SNE.

Agree on OP GFS being too amplified, but I would expect the precip shield to be more expansive with such a strong low. I’ve given up on the widespread blizzard idea, but still keeping an eye out for the possibility we get into some outer banding.

[Ginx snewx]

It would be an epic DC fail inside 69 hrs 

[George001]

This reminds me of a storm in Feb 2013. Not the huge blizzard, it was after that. The meat of the storm was offshore, but got about half a foot because we got clipped by a few outer bands. It was a coastal scraper setup like this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't see it. Hope he's right.

What ?

[Zeus]

Here to check on my favorite lads -- how's it going in there?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna guess the 12z EURO will be east of 06z, but west of 00z, but east of 18z, but west of 12z.....and not result in much snow here.

[Kitz Craver]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say south/central CT has sneaky bullseye potential because sometimes they have a bit more access to the parent southern moisture flow that gets entrained into these things...Feb 2013 is a classic example. I never see that kind of banding.

[RDRY]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not extremely rare.   Many massive events clipped shy of getting this far N.  Just being fair

DC's second-biggest snowfall is 17.8 inches. I'm really just referencing the ridiculous amounts on the GFS for DC. Not happening.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's an interesting time-dependent bust study.

Relative to the 96-108 hour, if the Euro is right vs the GFS.   

For us that difference probably doesn't survive modern attention span's failing myelination and memory fixing ( LOL ), but down in the MA... talking the difference between a mere snow day vs regional halting of all civil modes.  

So for a D4.5 window, one of these models could bust impressively badly. heh.   A compromise (mid way) impactor probably is sensible, but like I was describing earlier... this whole situation has a greater than normal short term adjustment potential to it.  Whether that happens, remains to be seen, but the reason for that is notable differences, small yet crucial, are creating massive variance down stream - talking about the handling and identification/physical processing thereafter, with the ejection out of the Pacific/general W. 

[CCHurricane]

GEFS looks to be doubling down on OP run.

[CoastalWx]

It’s tough for me to buy the gfs. Just feels like another blue baller. Winter of blue balls.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

DC will reach close to my seasonal total from this storm, and I’ll be watching cirrus float by.

This winter has positively sucked outside of 1 great event. Cold and constant misses, the worst 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s tough for me to buy the gfs. Just feels like another blue baller. Winter of blue balls.

It has no support. It’s wrong. We all know it’s wrong.

[MegaMike]

At this point, regardless of trends, I'm leaning towards the ECMWF/UKMET and their ensembles (graze/OTS)... Especially since they're both near misses at the moment and the CMC backtracked a little bit.

No matter what I analyze in terms of evaluations (fields, isobaric surface, space, and time), the GFS performs comparably to the CMC and JMA. 

The ECMWF and UKMET are 1 and 2, respectively.

Maybe the UKMET went to rehab over the past few decades and became an accomplished businessman? 

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

The GFS needs some better support outside of it's own ensemble suite.  I'm inclined to lean against it without that support.  

[Hazey]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The last 3 consecutive runs of the CMC were progressively less

Attenuation. Heard that word a lot this season.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just out of hernia surgery. 12z suxxx, sans GFS

Maybe I won't have to shovel though

 

[Torch Tiger]

what a winter out on the Cape and esp. ACK.  congrats

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Just out of hernia surgery. 12z suxxx, sans GFS

Maybe I won't have to shovel though

 

This is following, quite literally, the same progression we’ve seen from all these systems this year. 
 

some mid range waffling, but ultimately, there was never real support. Just enough to waste everyone’s time for 3-4 days, before it finally slowly vanishes under 100 hours 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

DC will reach close to my seasonal total from this storm, and I’ll be watching cirrus float by.

This winter has positively sucked outside of 1 great event. Cold and constant misses, the worst 

Relax. DC may not even get near that if gfs is off. I would not say sucked, but definitely frustrating moments. Plenty of snow and snowpack so far. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Should be quite a deformation band way west with this. Congrats Southbury 

[CoastalWx]

Ukie looks like my ass after the General Gau’s dinner special. Gfs is on crack. 

[CCHurricane]

FWIW: while still VERY far away from GFS solution, UKMET 12z vs. 00z changed upper level look quite a bit.

Having said that, end result could still be the same with as we've seen time and time again this winter re: vort messing with track well off the coast...

[Kitz Craver]

GFS probably hittin the meth

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie looks like my ass after the General Gau’s dinner special. Gfs is on crack. 

Significantly better at 500 though..