The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Snowman92]

Fair Lawn NJ now under Blizzard warning, about 30 miles NW of manhattan

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

im from albany, and my whole family is from syracuse. although its 2 hours and 17 mins to my parents house from my apartment in white plains. winters down here are light work compared to upstate, cant fathom maine

maine is not as bad as syracuse. no way. syracuse area is the snowiest in the country. but maine is probably colder. 

[EastonSN+]

Ball is back in the GFS/NAM court. 

Lets watch it hold serve!!

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

Not sure why EURO is so low on the amounts, don't think that will verify.

In a few hours we can begin nowcasting against prior runs for location of low and especially paying attention to the shorter range models tonight.

The Euro has largely been too dry on QPF all winter nationwide it seems.  I have seen it miss amounts by several inches, even in storms where only like 5-8 inches fell

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8
UKMET: 1/2  / 12.9
Euro : 1.0 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.6

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8
UKMET: 1/2  / 12.9
Euro : 1.0 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.6

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mean / Average (All Models Included)

 

Total QPF (NYC): 1.64 inches

10:1 Snowfall (NYC): 16.8 inches

[jlauderdal]

maine is not as bad as syracuse. no way. syracuse area is the snowiest in the country. but maine is probably colder. 

The Sierra's would like a word about the snowiest

[BoulderWX]

FINAL CALL 

MMU: 8-14 - area of highest uncertainty 

NYC: 12- 16 (locally 20) 

central/E LI: 16-20 (locally 2ft)

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro has largely been too dry on QPF all winter nationwide it seems.  I have seen it miss amounts by several inches, even in storms where only like 5-8 inches fell

Nam was overdone with yesterday's rain. Different situation of course but always smart to take 1/3 off what nam shows. 

[MJO812]

Sref is going to show ridiculous amounts 

[jm1220]

I’d go 18-24” for Nassau/Suffolk and coastal NJ, 12-18” everywhere else. It looks completely primed for possibly a historic event. Someone where banding can pivot overhead might get 30”. 

[Stormlover74]

[sussexcountyobs]

13 minutes ago, Snowman92 said:

Fair Lawn NJ now under Blizzard warning, about 30 miles NW of manhattan

Yes. Blizzard Warning for Bergen county NJ.

But. Fairlawn is not 30 miles NW of Manhattan. Straight line distance is 14.3 miles.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

2 camps there. The L is in the left camp. Wonder if the spread increased from last run.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

2 camps there. The L is in the left camp. Wonder if the spread increased from last run.

The rigjt camp is more in line with the EURO the left camp the GFS.

[EastonSN+]

Also a big difference north vs. South.

[EW9616]

Upton increased amounts to 15-20 for NYC area.

They also pushed back timing about 6-8 hours of warning


.

[GregRups21]

I think Bergen county does well with this one. I could even see a bullseye in this area. Ratios should be a little bit better than along coast and nyc.


.

[SACRUS]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref is going to show ridiculous amounts 

How much espresso have you drank today?  

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yes. Blizzard Warning for Bergen county NJ.

But. Fairlawn is not 30 miles NW of Manhattan. Straight line distance is 14.3 miles.

lol yup, Morristown is 30 miles West.

[Snowman92]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yes. Blizzard Warning for Bergen county NJ.

But. Fairlawn is not 30 miles NW of Manhattan. Straight line distance is 14.3 miles.

I stand corrected, 33 miles from my parents house in brooklyn. Im 17 miles from manhattan. At the northern edge of fair lawn

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

maine is not as bad as syracuse. no way. syracuse area is the snowiest in the country. but maine is probably colder. 

The Sierra's would like a word about the snowiest

snowiest city. 

[EastonSN+]

WOW eps!!

[Snowlover11]

Better sleep tonight, no sleep for possibly the biggest storm in years tomorrow night.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

This sucker is going to be a wild ride..

Overnight Monday morning is going to be absolutely insane. 

[BxEngine]

On 2/20/2026 at 7:08 AM, BxEngine said:

Which euro you wanna go with?

 

 

29 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is locked in for 8 to 12

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS is like 100 miles west

From MA forum a bit of a move west lol.

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Overnight Monday morning is going to be absolutely insane. 

What an absolutely incredible turn of events 

[Nibor]

[deathstar9]

The 15z Sref is insane, parks the low about 75 miles south of LI for 12 straight hrs.  Allows 30-35 mph sustained winds to get way inland.

Truly a solution that gets close to Feb 78 (not quite of course).

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Better sleep tonight, no sleep for possibly the biggest storm in years tomorrow night.

Should sleep all day tomorrow while we have white rain falling and people panicking