Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[BristowWx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Consult the chart 

 

Seems like every one of those solutions results in no snow...that right?  

[psuhoffman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Seems like every one of those solutions results in no snow...that right?  

no snow for you...you come back one year 

[Terpeast]

EPS mean stronger vort than previous run. Too soon to tell for qpf, mslp, but I don’t think its a giant step back. 

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Honestly, the euro has been windshield wipering between no storm and storm. I don’t care about run to run shifts on op models at this lead time. Ensembles only until 84-96 hours

This is probably the more rational approach. I recall someone saying we’d probably be happier not having access to op runs beyond day 5 lol.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI ensembles look more juiced through 120, let’s see if that translates for us. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

EPS mean stronger vort than previous run. Too soon to tell for qpf, mslp, but I don’t think its a giant step back. 

I mean if stronger would think its better but let’s see 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI ensembles look better to me, better MSLP with more west leaning members. 

[Ji]

no snow for you...you come back one year 

How often does euro go from Light rain to hecs in a 4-5 day window ?

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

How often does euro go from Light rain to hecs in a 4-5 day window ?

How often does it go from a hecs to nothing in same period. If it’s wrong it’s wrong. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Can. Ensembles are solid.

[Nomz]

Why is the max file size so low on this thread? I can't even copy and paste frames from PW anymore.

[stormy]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

March 58

To be exact, March 10, 1958.   12.5 inches at Staunton.

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Why is the max file size so low on this thread? I can't even copy and paste frames from PW anymore.

If you have a ton of previous attachments that you've done then it starts to limit your attachment file size.  You have to go into your account settings and delete old attachments and it will increase your attachment size limits.  

[midatlanticweather]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Why is the max file size so low on this thread? I can't even copy and paste frames from PW anymore.

Go into your profile and past image posts and delete them! Eventually, you hit your limit on space from your posts. You hit that limit

[NorthArlington101]

Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.

I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" (converge) towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).

 

[Nomz]

Euro AI ensemble. Some winners, some losers.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).

 

Speak of the AIFS ens devil

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Speak of the AIFS ens devil

Yeah, it doubled down. But remember it's not as dispersive as it should be at this range. The only reason we're giving it credibility is that its 500mb verification scores are excellent.

[NorthArlington101]

A median storm on the EPS is about nada - which is a bright red flag here, unfortunately.

Even a 75th percentile storm is really meh. We desperately need the best ens and it's OP to be wrong. Good luck to us

[NorthArlington101]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Even a 75th percentile storm is really meh. We desperately need the best ens and it's OP to be wrong. Good luck to us

Just realized the GEFS also sucks. Starting to wonder what we're doing here. 

[stormy]

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro sucks.  Worse than 6z.  Progressive POS

Comparing to 6z is what I mean.  There's some light shit, but it's def a step back.  Sorry yall

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm.  It's still looking.

This is very early at nearly 5 days out.  It might still find it.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Just realized the GEFS also sucks. Starting wonder what we're doing here. 

Euro on its on of course its members going to follow to an extent. All the other models are fine. Still days out. Just keep tracking and see where it goes. 

[wasnow215]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm.  It's still looking.

This is very early at nearly 5 days out.  It might still find it.

Or everything else is "finding" a storm that isn't there… We shall see

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

How often does euro go from Light rain to hecs in a 4-5 day window ?

FWIW the evening before the Feb 9 2010 storm the Euro was showing about .65 qpf total for me.  I got 32" of snow.  

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro on its on of course its members going to follow to an extent. All the other models are fine. Still days out. Just keep tracking and see where it goes. 

Idk. I'll join @SnowenOutThere in the panic room. Hope it pans out!

[TSSN+]

Euro is not always right as we found out plenty of times. If it had some support from like anything I’d be more worried but attm it and it’s ens to an extent are by itself, it’s AI partner not even on board with it. 

[TSSN+]

I know it’s just the JMA, but it’s another piece of guidance not on the euro op camp

 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW the evening before the Feb 9 2010 storm the Euro was showing about .65 qpf total for me.  I got 32" of snow.  

I remember that. Was up in Lancaster for that event and the Euro blew chunks on that storm. The 00z Euro on 2/9/10 only had us around 0.5" QPF (I was the lead forecaster for campus weather service that night). Everyone rightfully saw that as a red flag for the event, but the UKMET, GFS, Canadian, and NAM were all in lock step. We ended up with 18" - 22" in Lancaster from that. The night before, the NWS had us at 6" - 12".

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

FWIW the evening before the Feb 9 2010 storm the Euro was showing about .65 qpf total for me.  I got 32" of snow.  

Your ratios must have been bigly! lol