2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[bncho]

47 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Lol I was going to make a similar post but tried to stay positive for bunchos sake. Lots of posts for some gentle showers

It's fine. I know the drill. You guys are going to sacrifice me now. 

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I gotta admire the HRRR absolutely insisting that we are going to pop into the mid-50s today in the face of every other piece of guidance keeping us locked into the low 40s.  Going down with the ship is stupid, but honorable.

44 up here currently 

[wxdude64]

Currently 35.1/34.0 with light rain. A couple times this morning I've went to a rain/snow mix when intensity picked up. Least I saw some mangled flakes. lol. I'd say above 2500-3000 it is likely all (or mostly) snow. 

[WxUSAF]

Desperately need a free car wash

[TSSN+]

Just hit 50. Hrrr kudos 

[Terpeast]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Just hit 50. Hrrr kudos 

Not that it means anything, but I’m holding at 44. Like WxUSAF said I need that free car wash. Bring that half inch qpf on. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Not that it means anything, but I’m holding at 44. Like WxUSAF said I need that free car wash. Bring that half inch qpf on. 

First time seeing rain in feels like forever lol 

[Kay]

Just hit 40.

Awaiting carwashocalypse.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Oh look, it's dry here.  I'm shocked.

[stormtracker]

I’m in nyc. Can’t wait to get home and build rainmen

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m in nyc. Can’t wait to get home and build rainmen

Rainmen??

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just hit 50. Hrrr kudos 

Only 38.6 here 

[ravensrule]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m in nyc. Can’t wait to get home and build rainmen

The hundred dollar donator dude is paying for your umbrella if we get .5”. Enjoy it. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Desperately need a free car wash

It's coming . Hope it rains hard , I need my car washed too 

[aldie 22]

Light rain 45

[87storms]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

It's fine. I know the drill. You guys are going to sacrifice me now. 

The biggest issue with this storm is that it's not cold.  I'm just messing with you...I don't actually mind a storm thread (rain or snow) and, quite frankly, I don't even want it to snow.  I want to get these snowcrete mounds down and maybe we can get a normal, freshly packed snowstorm before the season is out.

[RevWarReenactor]

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

Check the last 2 runs. It would get credit for nailing fuck all. You are literally the worst poster here. Please stop.

Just more high and mighty arrogant garbage from you. Once again you are no better than me. Half you posts are literally repeat basic facts. 

[Bob Chill]

Low vis mod rain all morning. Just a wonderful cold rain piling up in ditches, potholes, and mud depressions. Y'all jelly don't lie now. 

Planning doing a jebdrive to knock off a few layers of dirt salt here shortly. I'll take pics

[SnowenOutThere]

According to the cameras it’s snowing up at snowshoe! Glad to get some verification of this thread

[psuhoffman]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models. 

This is my sounding Chuck. 
 

STF up about the PNA because with the pna it’s going to be 33-35 during the rain. And it’s warmed 2f since 1970.  This would have been a 3-4” snow event 50 years ago. The PNA isn’t the problem the problem is the boundary has warmed 2 degrees and right now it’s 2 degrees too warm!   That has nothing to do with the pna. This ended up being a perfect example for my book. A storm we lost due to warming.  

[nj2va]

39/rain at DCL. 

[wxdude64]

Still 37.7/36.9 at 12:45 pm with light rain and fog. About 1/3" has fallen since 7 am CoCoRaHS report. 

[bncho]

DRIZZLE!

[Terpeast]

Rain at 45. Not even close to “33 and rain”

[Wxtrix]

light rain. welcome and much needed still.

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is my sounding Chuck. 
 

STF up about the PNA because with the pna it’s going to be 33-35 during the rain. And it’s warmed 2f since 1970.  This would have been a 3-4” snow event 50 years ago. The PNA isn’t the problem the problem is the boundary has warmed 2 degrees and right now it’s 2 degrees too warm!   That has nothing to do with the pna. This ended up being a perfect example for my book. A storm we lost due to warming.  

Two things can be true at the same time. Not debating the 2 degree warming, but each synoptic setup, although similar, will have some details that are different but important. I'm just not sure this 2 degree difference can be applied across the board. Seems like an oversimplification that doesnt account for the nuances.  The current setup may or may not have had a different(more favorable) outcome in the 1970s. Devil in the details- that hasn't changed. The current airmass is almost entirely Pacific in origin with a significantly negative PNA, while the AO is positive and the NAO is neutral. The only decent cold is to our NE, and no real mechanism to involve it in the storm as it stands. Need better than that to somewhat negate the unfavorable Pacific imo. We needed a stronger low with a better track as we saw in several model cycles a few days ago, and dynamic cooling got the lower levels just cold enough for a paste bomb.

 

[Mrs.J]

41 and drizzle. I am not minding the rain to flush the dirty snow piles away. 

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Rain at 45. Not even close to “33 and rain”

The sounding is from 6pm. This would have always had to start as rain with the boundary temps. But places NW of the fall line in MD definitely would have had 2-3” of snow if it was 50 years ago. Up here I might eke out 1” maybe and it could have been 3-4” if it was 2f colder. 

[GreyHat]

51F

55 RH

Cloudy

No rain

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The sounding is from 6pm. This would have always had to start as rain with the boundary temps. But places NW of the fall line in MD definitely would have had 2-3” of snow if it was 50 years ago. Up here I might eke out 1” maybe and it could have been 3-4” if it was 2f colder. 

Had you shared a chart as to the timeline starting from where it was 50 years ago to 1f warmer then 2f warmer? (I wouldn't even know where to start looking for that)