2026-2027 Super El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

How does area look?

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

How does area look?

I found them  

[bluewave]

Don’t be surprised if the models like the Euro increase the El Niño regions SST forecasts again on August 5th once the effects of this  near record WWB get incorporated into the new model run. 

 

[roardog]

2 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

It looks like it’s staying close to 2012 to date but 2012 wasn’t at record low levels yet on this date in 2012. It fell off a cliff in August. 

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I found them  

Yep, extent is doing worse than area as compared to recent years.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/23/2026 at 11:06 AM, bluewave said:

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, BlizzardWx said:

Recent trends of all the nino regions together. You can really see nino 4 leveling off while the others continue to build. 

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming is and has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, by far IMO



Region 1+2: We are literally neck and neck with 1997

[TheClimateChanger]

On 7/23/2026 at 11:54 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I thought July 2012 broke the record for the warmest month. Or is that still in verification stage?

No, July 2012 came in 0.04F cooler than July 1936, per NCEI. Close but no cigar. For the whole summer (JJA), 2021 is tied with 1936 for the record at 73.98F.

[roardog]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Region 4 is what makes 2015-16 a poor ENSO analog. This one is developing as a pure canonical, east-based/EP El Niño. Region 4 has been leveled off for a long time now and the most recent 15 day SST anomaly charts on cyclonicwx are actually showing region 4 cooling. All the warming has been concentrated in regions 3.4, 3 and 1+2 for months now and it looks to remain that way as far as the eye can see. The best ENSO analog for this event is 1997-98, bay far IMO

If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall. 

[LakePaste25]

Yeah, there is still a 30C isotherm west of Nino 4. So it could spike again sometime between now and in the Fall before we actually start to see some real replacement upwelling in the W pac. This Nino has ways to go before it peaks. I also think some models that show 3.4 peaking in November are peaking it too early. 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

24 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

At least one of those so-called monthly record lows is fraudulent - there's a spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason. Also, strongly disagree with Brian about the upcoming pattern trending away from the record. In fact, this is the hottest stretch of the month starting today. NWS NBM forecast shows several days of 3-5F above normal to close out the month.

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, roardog said:

If region 4 really is done warming then the CFSv2 is way off showing warming continuing there into fall. 

I never said it’s done warming. My post only dealt with what has happened from when this event started up to now, not what is going to happen in the future with region 4. It may very well start warming again in the fall.

@LakePaste25 I agree with you about the peak. I think this event more than likely peaks in December, not November like the EURO is showing

Jeez, it already looks impressive as hell

[snowman19]

Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get:
 
 

 

 

 

In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

spurious 18F reading at YNG reported on 5/24 for some reason.

Data reporting issue that didn’t get removed yet. But they did get close to the all-time February low set in 2015. The cold records in the Southeast were the most noteworthy this February. 

On May 24, 2026, weather monitoring stations in Youngstown, Ohio, experienced a data reporting issue where a spurious (erroneous) low temperature spike was briefly logged. Actual weather records show that May 24, 2026, was actually a mild spring day, with temperatures hovering around a normal low of 54°F and reaching a pleasant high of 66°F. [1]

 

Time Series Summary for Youngstown Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2015	-16	0
-	1934	-16	0
2	1979	-14	0
3	2026	-13	0
4	1963	-11	0
-	1961	-11	0
-	1951	-11	0
5	1973	-10	0

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Once this DWKW treks into the EPAC and reaches the South American coast over the next month, I think it’s a very real possibility that we see +12C subsurface anomalies. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline supports this. This is as east-based of an evolution as you could possibly get:
 
 

 

 

 

In other news, right on time, the +IOD has started to develop….

 

 

 

 

I dont believe the above post is right ATM showing a KW crossing the CPAC,this is a ERW causing this strong WWB,seems right now in the east is from DWKW as it contines into the East Atlantic more or less

 

 

[GaWx]

WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, the Euro has big-time NAO blocking in January....I don't agree with that, but tries to pull a 1966.

[EasternLI]

Looking through the JMA archives of VP anomalies. There's not really many years at all that are comparable in the strength of the Walker cell at this stage of the evolution. It's really only the super nino years that are comparable at all to this year thus far(basing this on the ONI data). The strong el nino years such as 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 91-92, 23-24 don't even hold a candle to the VP obs over the past 30 days of this year. 87-88 also gets included in that group. That one gets a little bit of a shout out being as it's far closer in this regard than any of the others I listed. However that was a 2nd year event so I'm guessing that has something to do with it. That leaves 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 super nino's which I will post below along with this year. These are the 30 day means(!) Of those 15-16 I'd say probably looks the closest match to date although I'd also say that's probably because that's the most recent one. 82-83 not terrible. 97-98 seems to have ramped up a little more slowly than we're seeing now but that one absolutely gets included. Images below are this current year followed by the other 3 in chronological order. Yeah, this one probably ends up unprecedented in strength given all of the other data available. What that would ultimately look like is anyone's guess given an inherently small sample size. Guess we'll all find out.

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Don. It will be interesting to see if 2026 beats 1998’s 100 days!

 As you said, the record of the daily SOs goes back only to 1991. I wonder if there’s any way to find dailies pre-1991. Based on the monthlies, I’d say that 1982-3 would have a 50% or higher chance of having a streak exceeding 100 days if the dailies could be found. Why? These monthlies, especially Nov-Mar:

1982  8   -22.2  1
1982  9   -20.0  1
1982  10  -20.5  1
1982  11  -30.0  1
1982  12  -22.6  1
1983  1   -31.4  1
1983  2   -35.7  1
1983  3   -25.7  1

 
 Another good candidate per the monthlies is 1905, especially Mar-June:

1905  2   -18.5  3
1905  3   -27.7  1
1905  4   -38.2  1
1905  5   -34.3  1
1905  6   -27.7  1
1905  7   -19.8  1

One last good possibility is 1896, especially May-Aug:

1896  5   -38.8  3
1896  6   -27.0  1
1896  7   -19.1  1
1896  8   -21.0  1
1896  9   -18.2  1
1896  10  -19.2  1

I agree. I suspect that 1982-83 likely had at least a comparable streak. Unfortunately, I have found no daily data prior to 1991.

[raindancewx]

If you go by the June -SOI (-22 is very strong for an El Nino historically) you'd expect a cooler than average Great Basin & New England. Not what we have.

Moisture is closer though, its wet / dry in mostly the right areas, although spottier than I'd like.

 

Long-term, -SOI in July is a weak cold West signal for Sept, and then the eastern ~5/6 of the lower 48 is weakly favored cold in October. Dec goes to Cold West, Warm East, Mild Plains favored. December also has the first deeper blue signal for precipitation - strongly favoring the Midwest/Southwest for a wet month. No big signals for January via July SOI. In February, SE is strongly favored cold, NW strongly favored warm. March is then a strong SW / Plains wet signal, weak SW cold signal.

We're in a flash flood warning here - it's been a good monsoon day statewide (finally). So the precip map should move closer to the correlation map for New Mexico after today.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

If you go by the June -SOI (-22 is very strong for an El Nino historically) you'd expect a cooler than average Great Basin & New England. Not what we have.

Moisture is closer though, its wet / dry in mostly the right areas, although spottier than I'd like.

 

Long-term, -SOI in July is a weak cold West signal for Sept, and then the eastern ~5/6 of the lower 48 is weakly favored cold in October. Dec goes to Cold West, Warm East, Mild Plains favored. December also has the first deeper blue signal for precipitation - strongly favoring the Midwest/Southwest for a wet month. No big signals for January via July SOI. In February, SE is strongly favored cold, NW strongly favored warm. March is then a strong SW / Plains wet signal, weak SW cold signal.

We're in a flash flood warning here - it's been a good monsoon day statewide (finally). So the precip map should move closer to the correlation map for New Mexico after today.

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

[Jebman]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

I love your thinking, snowman! I want tons of rain! I want transport of moisture from the deep tropics, too! This is a monster Nino! I want monster rains this autumn and winter and in Spring 2027!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

That Andrej Flis guy from severe weenie EU is full of shit again....only valid piece of analysis on that post is the El Niño favoring SSW over La Niña and the EURO blocking signal. I go in depth on his selective pruning of information at the end of my blog...should post tomorrow night. 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm east this December….El Niño/+QBO has been a slam dunk for that since 1979. And I would be shocked if the southwest isn’t wet this winter given the super Nino/++PMM combo that really juices the STJ

Warm how? Am I going to need an air conditioner?

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Looking through the JMA archives of VP anomalies. There's not really many years at all that are comparable in the strength of the Walker cell at this stage of the evolution. It's really only the super nino years that are comparable at all to this year thus far(basing this on the ONI data). The strong el nino years such as 57-58, 65-66, 72-73, 91-92, 23-24 don't even hold a candle to the VP obs over the past 30 days of this year. 87-88 also gets included in that group. That one gets a little bit of a shout out being as it's far closer in this regard than any of the others I listed. However that was a 2nd year event so I'm guessing that has something to do with it. That leaves 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 super nino's which I will post below along with this year. These are the 30 day means(!) Of those 15-16 I'd say probably looks the closest match to date although I'd also say that's probably because that's the most recent one. 82-83 not terrible. 97-98 seems to have ramped up a little more slowly than we're seeing now but that one absolutely gets included. Images below are this current year followed by the other 3 in chronological order. Yeah, this one probably ends up unprecedented in strength given all of the other data available. What that would ultimately look like is anyone's guess given an inherently small sample size. Guess we'll all find out.
 

 

 

 

Rapid warming in the western IOD region and cooling in the eastern IOD region around Indonesia/Australia. The +IOD is coming on fast. Once it gets established, it’s going to project onto (constructively interfere) that huge El Niño standing wave signal you showed and it’s going to increase the Bjerknes feedback even more

@LakePaste25

@40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx

@csnavywx @donsutherland1

[Terpeast]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

WCS PDO is still dropping and is now down to -1.81, lowest since early Oct:

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

[EasternLI]

Yeah, this sure is a -PDO. Fairly textbook looking actually in the North Pacific.

 

 

Here's what makes that feature really interesting to me, especially in the face of this burgeoning super nino. Battle of heavyweights here. The interplay between these 2 should be fascinating. A deeply entrenched -PDO state vs potentially a record breaking el nino. When the PDO is out of phase with enso there is evidence it can act against it. Whether that is el nino or la nina. To the point of cancelling it out completely in the extratropics. Now, I am not sitting here thinking this event will be cancelled out by the PDO. That's not the point of this post. Nor do I think that will be the case. I do think there will be some sort of modulation though and think it will be interesting to watch how that goes and evolves. Additionally, could this be the event finally signaling a longer term change for the north pacific? I feel like that could be plausible given the magnitude and timing of it but who knows. Sometimes I see people dismissive of the PDO, however research suggests it's probably not a great idea to do that.

 

Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/18/jcli-d-19-0087.1.xml

 

Quote

b. Sensitivity of tropospheric ENSO teleconnections to the PDO phase
Figure 6 shows the composite precipitation and 200-hPa geopotential height responses to ENSO with the PDO modulations from the CMIP5 MME. El Niño warm SST anomalies in the middle and eastern tropical Pacific enhance convection and lead to more rainfall (Figs. 6a,b). As the composite ENSO intensity shows little difference between El/P and El/N winters, the tropical precipitation and height responses are also similar. In the extratropics, however, the PNA response is stronger in El/P winters than in El/N winters, and the anomalous Aleutian low is much stronger in Fig. 6a than in Fig. 6b. The different extratropical height anomalies over the North Pacific are mainly modulated by the local SST anomalies associated with the PDO

 

Similarly, the negative PNA response and its positive height lobe over the North Pacific only appear in La/N winters, and no significant height anomalies form over the North Pacific in La/P winters (Figs. 6d,e). The different height anomalies over the North Pacific between La/P and La/N winters are also mainly caused by the local PDO SST anomalies. An anomalous low, albeit nonsignificant, appears in the North Pacific in La/P winters (Fig. 6d), which is mainly forced by the North Pacific cold SST anomalies. The La Niña teleconnection during the negative PDO is mostly symmetric to the El Niño teleconnection during the positive PDO, especially in the Pacific sector (Figs. 6a,e). After the tropical La Niña SST forcing is filtered out, the atmospheric response to the positive PDO in Fig. 6f resembles a positive PNA-like pattern (e.g., Hurwitz et al. 2012; Mills and Walsh 2013; Woo et al. 2015; Kren et al. 2016). Therefore, the North Pacific SSTs associated with the PDO and the tropical Pacific ENSO SSTs are equally important for the excitation of the PNA. When the PDO and ENSO are in phase, the strong PNA response appears in the extratropics, whereas when the PDO and ENSO are out of phase the extratropical response to ENSO is destructed and even cancelled by the North Pacific SST forcing.

 

[LakePaste25]

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it. 

[EasternLI]

10 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it. 

 

There's probably going to be an incredibly powerful sub tropical jet this season too. A byproduct of the WQBO is further enhancement to that jet.

 

QBO and ENSO Effects on the Mean Meridional Circulation, Polar Vortex, Subtropical Westerly Jets, and Wave Patterns During Boreal Winter

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022JD036691

Quote

During El Niño and QBO W, the strongest STJs occur, and a warm pole/wave two pattern is found.