2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

 

[snowman19]

“Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making

Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event.

According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History

Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below-

1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c.
This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events)

2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months”

[snowman19]

And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….

[bluewave]

On 6/14/2026 at 8:12 AM, snowman19 said:

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: 

“We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect.

I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

[snowman19]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. 

Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4.

1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

June 10th

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3

07JUN2023     26.1 2.6     28.0 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.5 0.7

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

11JUN1997     26.1 2.8     27.8 1.1     28.4 0.7     28.9 0.1
 

At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties

29NOV2023     24.2 2.1     27.2 2.0     28.7 2.0     30.3 1.7 

18NOV2015     23.8 2.0     28.0 2.9     29.8 3.0     30.3 1.7

26NOV1997     25.8 3.7     28.4 3.3     28.9 2.2     29.3 0.7
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.2 3.1     28.8 2.1     29.2 0.6

 

 

IMO, this one is headed for the history books. I think it ends up as the strongest El Nino event on record

[Typhoon Tip]

Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Moving a little more exponential the last few days

Subsurface looks really healthy right now

Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July