2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Here are CPC numbers for all 4 Enso areas for 6/10/15 & 6/10/26:

10JUN2015     25.5 2.0     27.8 1.2     28.7 0.9     29.8 0.9

10JUN2026     26.1 2.7     28.3 1.6     29.2 1.5     30.1 1.3ⁿ

If you divide Enso 1.2 anomaly into the other 3 areas' anomalies for both years, you get respectively  60%, 45% and 45% in 2015 and 59.25%, 55.55% and 48.15% this year. Comparing the 2 years, Enso 3 is nearly identical for both years and 3.4 and 4 are a hair warmer this year than 2015.

Obviously, there may be other ways to figure it, but I'd have to say that they are very similar with a slight edge to 2015 as being more east based under this method.

P.s. @GaWx will surely check my math! Lol

 Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course.

 Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982:

                            1+2         3         3.4         4

09JUN1982        -0.2        0.8        1.0       1.1 

11JUN1997         3.0        1.3        0.8        0.2

12JUN2002        -0.3        0.6        0.8        0.7

10JUN2015         1.8        0.8        0.6        0.7

10JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.9        0.7

 

 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based:

1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015

 

[snowman19]

“Potentially Historic #ElNino in Making

Just Days After the American Weather Agency NOAA Declared the Arrival of El Nino, Today the Australian Weather Agency BOM has Declared the Event.

According to BOM, Almost Half of the Models now indicate that this Event would be among the Strongest Ever in the Recorded History

Some Notable Record Already Smashed by the Present Evolving El Nino are mentioned below-

1) The Traditional Nino 3.4 Index (Primary El Nino Monitoring Region) is now at +1.45c.
This is the Highest Ever Temperature Achieved at this Stage of an Evolving El Nino and Beats all Previous Super El Nino Events)

2) This is Fastest Ever Flip from a Mature La Nina State Early in the Year to Almost a High End Moderate El Nino within a Span of just 6 Months”

[snowman19]

And the new WWB generated DWKW has begun to make its trek eastward with more warming to follow….