2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Cobalt]

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

[WinterWolf]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D winter outlook

 

https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2026/10/30/winter-forecast-2026-27/

I like his “high potential” of what can go wrong on the cold side ….that’d be pretty cool. 

[GaWx]

Recent 10 day mean CFS runs have warmed for Feb:

10 days ago:

 

Today:

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

[snowman19]

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO

[qg_omega]

54 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

Their methodology has a pretty good track record. This does not seem too far fetched

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

What weather enthusiast wouldnt marvel about how warm it is in Phoenix when theres a blizzard in his own backyard? 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 

Even some in the NE US.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

You predict that every year.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Cosgrove’s just released Nov forecast disagrees just slightly :

 I think that CWG will verify much more closely based on the Euro Weeklies.

Bamwx likes a cool November 

[snowman19]

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 
Even some in the NE US.

Ok

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bamwx likes a cool November 

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The first half of November will definitely be warmer than avg. November (at least here) is the most rapidly changing month of the entire year from first day to last. So with the natural transition from Fall to winter alone, I would expect the second half to be solidly colder than the first, but in the end, highly confident anyone in the north finishes the month on the cool side of normal is an ill-advised call.

In these parts, November snow is rarer than March snow so temps are pretty meaningless. I'd rather save the oil for when it counts anyway.  Lol

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like warmest CONUS November, December ever 

Not gonna lie if winter is gonna be like its been the last 2 weeks then sign me up. 

Yes it's dull as dirt, San Diego style weather,  but it feels great. 

I know we'll pay for it next spring/summer though. Summer 2027 will be a complete global disaster. 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Lol. Only if you honestly want it warm it is.

You are a funny guy. The reason that I point out how much warmer things have become is due to the fact that I grew up in a much colder 1970s and 1980s. This is literally a new climate paradigm. Not because I like such a warmer planet.

But most people off this forum like a warmer climate since a large portion of the population has been moving to the Sunbelt from the colder regions. But there has been some small shift to this long term trend in the last few years.

 

9 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Huh? Why does something need to be more impressive than something else? It's all impressive. I'm just not all that surprised by that. That's what super el nino does. 

Since we live here near the surface and not up in the stratosphere. Numerous posts on how the stratosphere might change the eventual outcome vs the super El Niño. Not meant to single you out since I understand that you were only posting the data. But the super El Niño is a much greater climate driver in comparison. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Jesus, Chris....we get it. There's no hope.

"My beach umbrella is bigger than your snow shovel"

We pretty much knew where this was headed with the record WWBs last spring and the early model shift to a stronger and stronger east based El Niño. So no hopes are going to get dashed since expectations were lowered in accordance to how extreme an east based event this has become. 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There was literally a generational blizzard ongoing last February, and he was posting images illustrating how the magnitude of that the anomaly paled in comparison to the warmth in the southwest....love-ya-mean-it, Chris...but wow-

The national and global climate system is much bigger than our local backyards. Last winter was our first both cold and snowy winter in 11 years. The limited area of the cold against the background of the 2nd warmest CONUS winter on record explains what has happened.

The cold since the 2015-2016 super El Niño baseline shift has become extremely limited. So the chances of any one winter being both colder and snowier than average is becoming less likely.

The geographic footprint of the cold when it does occur is more limited. So this new pattern made it possible for us to go this long before experiencing a colder winter.

In the old days it was possible to get coast to coast widespread cold. So our chances for a colder winter in any given location were greater.

These days we can’t get a colder winter winter in a portion of the CONUS without a much more impressive warm winter somewhere else.

We were discussing snowfall before last winter and during previous winters. I was very happy to get the benchmark storm track back for the first time since 21-22. But it highlights how important the benchmark track is for our snow especially since the mid-90s.

In the colder climate prior to the mid-90s, we could nickel and dime our way to normal snowfall especially around NYC Metro. It was possible during the colder era to have an average snowfall season with just small or moderate events. But for the last 30 years getting a KU benchmark storm has become a prerequisite. 

This has lead to the snowfall for places around NYC to become an all or nothing proposition with hardly any more seasons near the mid-20s average.

I also said in earlier years that it would be a struggle to get another 50” snowfall season in NYC with how warm the winters have become. Since NYC proper needs a winter close to 32° in order to pull this off. The colder temperatures are necessary but not always sufficient like we found out last winter.

Areas like Islip to the east and Newark to the west don’t fall into this category which I also pointed out years ago. 

So it’s more of a NYC and surrounding stations like LGA and JFK requirement. 
 

 

[snowman19]

Massive WWB coming for early-mid next month. This will cause even more warming in regions 1+2, 3 and 3.4, setting the stage for the December peak. This super El Niño has secured and guaranteed its rightful place as the strongest and most east-based in history….

[LakePaste25]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Very strong signal for a warm November IMO
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The trade off here is that we probably avoid a December 2015-like outcome and instead see something closer to December 1997. 

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yet, the Euro-AIFS shows decent snow in southern Canada the 1st 15 days of November. I'd show further north, but Pivotal doesn't offer that map. 

Even some in the NE US.

Literally shows nothing across almost all of southern Canada

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Literally shows nothing across almost all of southern Canada

We disagree on geographic labels.

[GaWx]

 After a mild DJ, Cosgrove has a frigid Feb:

With the rapid decline of the El Nino and evidence for high-latitude ridging and cross-polar flow, I went in a colder direction for February to the right of the Continental Divide. The southern branch jet stream looks depressed into the Deep South and up off of the Eastern Seaboard, which would seem to favor more cold air and frozen precipitation. While I do not think that we will have a 2009 or 2015 type outcome, I lean toward a colder look than what official and major vendor sources are showing for February.

 

[snowman19]

@LakePaste25 Speaking of 1997-98, which I firmly believe is the best analog for this winter despite this El Niño being much stronger (and more east-based)

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After a mild DJ, Cosgrove has a frigid Feb:

With the rapid decline of the El Nino and evidence for high-latitude ridging and cross-polar flow, I went in a colder direction for February to the right of the Continental Divide. The southern branch jet stream looks depressed into the Deep South and up off of the Eastern Seaboard, which would seem to favor more cold air and frozen precipitation. While I do not think that we will have a 2009 or 2015 type outcome, I lean toward a colder look than what official and major vendor sources are showing for February.

 

I'm impressed and excited. Look at that potential record breaking heat in the west. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Literally shows nothing across almost all of southern Canada

Exactly, not having snow cover in Churchill/mooseonee this time of year is far far from normal. They have polar bears there


.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

In these parts, November snow is rarer than March snow so temps are pretty meaningless. I'd rather save the oil for when it counts anyway.  Lol

We have actually had very warm Novembers (1902, 1975, 2015) give nice early snowstorms after the 20th of the month. We've also had cold Novembers produce an inch or less of snow. It's the very beginning of winter so anything can and will happen. 

[chris21]

The trade off here is that we probably avoid a December 2015-like outcome and instead see something closer to December 1997. 

Dec 1997 was snowy month in the southern Appalachians. Had thirty inches of snow on the way to a nearly 100 inch season at my location. Will be interesting to see how a similar pattern will play out in a warming climate.


.

[LakePaste25]

 

womp womp

[jaxjagman]

CFS has been doing a shitty job with the MJO as of late,its showing the MJO going MC,in reality this is just a strong EKW which its even showing causing destructive interferece with that actual MJO signal

[EasternLI]

1877-1878.... There's that year coming up again. I'm not sure how accurate reanalysis is, but let's say it's reasonable. I had dug into it a little bit. That is actually an exceptionally intriguing year, especially in light of the early season progression we're seeing now. Look at the month by month from that year. Different timing, much earlier this year. However, watch how it evolves for November and December vs what we've already seen so far.

Nov 1877- Big cyclonic anomaly near Iceland to start off. We've already done that this year, and they had a record storm in Iceland out of it. Also some blocking, near the Urals.

Dec-1877- Big cyclonic anomaly amplified that Ural blocking. Eerily similar to the way we achieved the monster Ural block this year. I'd put my money on there having been a disturbance in the stratosphere that year too. Something like what we've been keeping track of happening now. It's almost like it's all connected to the el nino, stratosphere included 

 

One mainstay feature of that entire season, was a big ridge near Hudson Bay in Canada. Ensembles sure are advertising plenty of that to come currently.

 

Is this the playbook we're following? I don't know, but that early sequence has some striking similarities to ours. Check out the stubborn ridging east of Japan that year as well...

 

My expectations for the winter are in the basement. They have been all along. I couldn't possibly bury them any deeper than where they started. There is only one thing that I personally expect we will achieve this season, a record Pacific Jet. I am, however, also willing to remain open minded for surprises at the same time. This event is interesting as hell to me though, regardless of whatever winter does.

 

Here's that whole season, November -> March 1877-1878:

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The ridge across the CONUS In October 2026 has been much stronger than 1997. So we didn’t get the Southeast trough this month that 1997 had.

It’s why this was one of the warmest Octobers on record across the CONUS vs the much cooler 1997.

The North Pacific low was also focused further south near Southern California snd the Baja.

Also note the flip of the North Pacific pattern associated with the record warm pool from Japan to North of Hawaii. So this lead to the reversal of the WPO to positive this month rather than more negative in 1997.

The strongest ridge axis in the Upper Midwest is making an earlier appearance. We usually have to wait until the winter for this El Niño ridge to emerge. 

 

 

How similar is this to October 2024 Chris and does this set off alarm bells for you that a drier outcome is possible? This is why I bring up 2001-02 as a non nino analog. October 2001 was also similar to this.

 

 

22 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Including 1997 as an analog isn't intellectually lazy in and of itself....it's in my composite with ample data to support it. 

You can identify MC forcing by looking at where the velocity potential, highest precipitation rate and OLR are focused....if it's in the MC, then it's MC forcing. This year it is not....2023 it was, 2015 it was somewhat....I don't see this year being dry given the intensity of El Niño and absence of MC forcing. 

Ray I was more referring to how NOAA broadbrushes their long range outlooks based on ENSO they very typically use 1997-1998 as their main analog for every strong el nino event.

The reason I am going drier is because it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks this is very similar to October 2024 in that respect. Although selfishly if it isn't going to snow this is the perfect weather, warm and sunny

 

 

 

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The surface warming across the Northern Hemisphere going into November with this historic El Niño is more impressive than what is happening in the stratosphere. 

 

It's non nino like Chris this actually reminds me of October 2024 in terms of both widespread warmth and dryness.  I love it lol.

 

12 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Huh? Why does something need to be more impressive than something else? It's all impressive. I'm just not all that surprised by that. That's what super el nino does. 

ENSO is responsible for only 30% of the outcome.

 

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I love a lot of his data, but the instinct to compulsively extinguish any potential hope for winter is uncanny....it's like Robo Cop or Terminator...whereas you don't even have to explicitly express optimism, but if his sensors flag data he perceives as something that could theoretically engender even a modicum of hope, he pounces.

It reminds me of Doctor No coming out right after the GFS lol.

 

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hate to tell you ... his/her doing so, mm isn't just a about a bias to see thru a CC lens ( assuming that's the gripe?)

He may do that - truth be told ...don't know who we're really talking about haha. Just caught my eye   Seriously, the poster may have that bias, but were right to have brought up that empirically true and important comparison. 

It lacks tact.  Yup.  During the d-drip of cryo-dystopia that's finally coursing through the veins of the weather-related psychotropic addict ...that's definitely going to come off as a NARCANian insult.    LOL

However, the truth of his/her aspect is of more importance when taking the longer view ... Probably even saying 'ethical' view is apropos.  I sense some times we're preoccupied in social media, for seeking the possibility for big entertaining events, and not really thinking enough about what's going on behind the curtains. - just don't interrupt the show? 

I don't mean say anyone's immoral but, I'm just taking a stab at denialism straw-man there.  The empirical data, and the fucking physical changes being existentially observed around the planet don't allow sanity and denial to exist in the same realm, any longer.  But I digress.

 

I think they are just saying that weather and climate are two separate things.  Also John I love how you write  But I digress at the tail end of a long post lol.

 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that it's true, but given the rarity of blizzards of that magnitude, it just seems tone-deaf.  I'm not angry...I just don't get it....sure, the anomaly with respect to the warmth is more impressive statistically speaking, but anyone with a pulse is more compelled by the anomaly that is magnificently impacting their sensible weather in the short-term. Focusing on the blizzard that is dropping 30" in your drive way and understanding that CC is real are not mutually exclusive...why is their this tacit mindset that you're in denial unless you're strutting around nude on main street with a banner touting your ever-expanding Hadley Cell. Shit, strap on a loin-cloth and enjoy the fruits of ma-nature; smoke 'em if ya got 'em, as fleeting as they may be.

I mean, I got married, had 4 kids, launched a career and purchased a home..."geez, look at that guy, he's in denial about his own mortality"...

"Why bother, he's just going to die anyway, idiot"-

This is the same reason I get incensed with the sabr people who turned baseball into a boring comatose sport. Having the Brewers and the Rays in the Wotld Series was a nice global FU and middle finger to those fools. 

 

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why celebrate your kid's 1st grade graduation, or take pride in dropping 30lbs....the rate of warming in the arctic is more impressive. I mean, if someone is in fact using a single storm or arctic outbreak as evidence against CC, then by all means....start the firing squad, but simply enjoying it for what it is? The fact that CC is in fact real warrants that we savor it even more TBH.

Yes this is also why I savor late season snowstorms especially in April. You know it's going to be the last one for a long time. Also they aren't a pain to clean up.

 

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just curious ...what did you actually get in that Feb event up your way?

Over here - which I consider the western limb of the same sort of "Met district" - we got kind of left out... It was pedestrian here - somewhere around 10" I wanna say. 

Which is relativistic, haha.  I mean, 10" in 1985 would have been a ER visit for a non-terminating orgasm 

The January HECS was bigger here, I was on Long Island for last winter where the February event was bigger but both were HECS.

 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got like 10"...I went to sleep very early on because I knew it wasn't my storm...just like in the Jan 2022 event. The lead-up is exhausting, so if I don't think it will produce to a level commensurate to hope/expectations, then I check out.

How did you do in the January event? That was a big one over here.

 

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The benchmark track though has truly been absent now for years.  Its much like the January 87 track has been gone now for seemingly 30 years or so.  We rarely if ever see that coastal runner type deal anymore since we went to the +PDO dominant phase around 95.  I think its harder long term to lose the BM track as you have the Gulf Stream playing a role but many have pointed out the last 8 years or so how insanely consistent the inland or way suppressed track has been.

Didn't we have a hugger track with the January KU event?

 

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Some people have different agendas than others. 

Bias and agenda aren't the same thing. 

 

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The system that dropped a 40_spot on PVD was just outside....

There was also an HECS in January that was bigger out this way. But it changed to ice right at the peak of the storm otherwise NYC and the local airports would have all had two 20 inch snowstorms and 50 plus inches for the season. That first storm was an 93-94 kind of storm.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Not gonna lie if winter is gonna be like its been the last 2 weeks then sign me up. 

Yes it's dull as dirt, San Diego style weather,  but it feels great. 

I know we'll pay for it next spring/summer though. Summer 2027 will be a complete global disaster. 

A global disaster? Most people love hot and dry summers. I welcome a 1966, 1983 and 2010 repeat.

 

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are a funny guy. The reason that I point out how much warmer things have become is due to the fact that I grew up in a much colder 1970s and 1980s. This is literally a new climate paradigm. Not because I like such a warmer planet.

But most people off this forum like a warmer climate since a large portion of the population has been moving to the Sunbelt from the colder regions. But there has been some small shift to this long term trend in the last few years.

 

Since we live here near the surface and not up in the stratosphere. Numerous posts on how the stratosphere might change the eventual outcome vs the super El Niño. Not meant to single you out since I understand that you were only posting the data. But the super El Niño is a much greater climate driver in comparison. 

We pretty much knew where this was headed with the record WWBs last spring and the early model shift to a stronger and stronger east based El Niño. So no hopes are going to get dashed since expectations were lowered in accordance to how extreme an east based event this has become. 

The national and global climate system is much bigger than our local backyards. Last winter was our first both cold and snowy winter in 11 years. The limited area of the cold against the background of the 2nd warmest CONUS winter on record explains what has happened.

The cold since the 2015-2016 super El Niño baseline shift has become extremely limited. So the chances of any one winter being both colder and snowier than average is becoming less likely.

The geographic footprint of the cold when it does occur is more limited. So this new pattern made it possible for us to go this long before experiencing a colder winter.

In the old days it was possible to get coast to coast widespread cold. So our chances for a colder winter in any given location were greater.

These days we can’t get a colder winter winter in a portion of the CONUS without a much more impressive warm winter somewhere else.

We were discussing snowfall before last winter and during previous winters. I was very happy to get the benchmark storm track back for the first time since 21-22. But it highlights how important the benchmark track is for our snow especially since the mid-90s.

In the colder climate prior to the mid-90s, we could nickel and dime our way to normal snowfall especially around NYC Metro. It was possible during the colder era to have an average snowfall season with just small or moderate events. But for the last 30 years getting a KU benchmark storm has become a prerequisite. 

This has lead to the snowfall for places around NYC to become an all or nothing proposition with hardly any more seasons near the mid-20s average.

I also said in earlier years that it would be a struggle to get another 50” snowfall season in NYC with how warm the winters have become. Since NYC proper needs a winter close to 32° in order to pull this off. The colder temperatures are necessary but not always sufficient like we found out last winter.

Areas like Islip to the east and Newark to the west don’t fall into this category which I also pointed out years ago. 

So it’s more of a NYC and surrounding stations like LGA and JFK requirement. 
 

 

Yes I distinctly remember you said there were 3 different future outcomes. Nowhere did you say a KU event could not happen without a big volcanic eruption.

I also grew up in the 80s and while they were much colder in the winter anyway we also got less snow. The only HECS we got in the 80s during the winter was during a super El nino. The other one was in April the previous year. 

While I love the warmer falls what I really hate is the longer pollen season. My allergies are much worse than what we had back then. And I feel like our May weather has gotten colder and wetter. My ideal spring weather happened in 1991 that spring was much warmer than any we've had this decade. For summer I'd take a combination of 1991 and 1993 we dont see summers as hot as that anymore.  For Fall I'd take 1983 for the same reason.

 

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

The trade off here is that we probably avoid a December 2015-like outcome and instead see something closer to December 1997. 

Either way it's no snow so warmer and sunnier would be far preferable. 

 

[LakePaste25]

30 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

1877-1878.... There's that year coming up again. I'm not sure how accurate reanalysis is, but let's say it's reasonable. I had dug into it a little bit. That is actually an exceptionally intriguing year, especially in light of the early season progression we're seeing now. Look at the month by month from that year. Different timing, much earlier this year. However, watch how it evolves for November and December vs what we've already seen so far.

Nov 1877- Big cyclonic anomaly near Iceland to start off. We've already done that this year, and they had a record storm in Iceland out of it. Also some blocking, near the Urals.

Dec-1877- Big cyclonic anomaly amplified that Ural blocking. Eerily similar to the way we achieved the monster Ural block this year. I'd put my money on there having been a disturbance in the stratosphere that year too. Something like what we've been keeping track of happening now. It's almost like it's all connected to the el nino, stratosphere included 

 

One mainstay feature of that entire season, was a big ridge near Hudson Bay in Canada. Ensembles sure are advertising plenty of that to come currently.

 

Is this the playbook we're following? I don't know, but that early sequence has some striking similarities to ours. Check out the stubborn ridging east of Japan that year as well...

 

My expectations for the winter are in the basement. They have been all along. I couldn't possibly bury them any deeper than where they started. There is only one thing that I personally expect we will achieve this season, a record Pacific Jet. I am, however, also willing to remain open minded for surprises at the same time. This event is interesting as hell to me though, regardless of whatever winter does.

 

Here's that whole season, November -> March 1877-1878:

 

The persistent GOA low and Hudson Bay ridge is basically -TNH. Basically the inverse of 2013-2014.