2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Bad guess!

There's no 500mb map on this site, but 700mb will be close enough at this point.

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

[LakePaste25]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

It's a 3 month average and Cfs2 is showing on the monthly forecasts that December's a dumpster fire and February looks workable to great. So you're going to get goofy 3 month averages. 

[EasternLI]

CPC MJO update from today confirming the mid month constructive interference that was targeted and verified. Culminating in the current WWB activity. Also the difficulty in identifying the MJO due to the strong Nino. The propagation though the western hemisphere was making me think a recurving typhoon was possible as a consequence of that. But that looks like a failed idea on most recent guidance. So still waiting on that. A selection of the bullet points from the update below:

 

• The strong El Niño continues to be the major influence on anomalous rainfall and tropical cyclone (TC) development throughout the global tropics.

• During mid-August, the MJO began to constructively interfere with the strong El Niño similar to what occurred in July.

• The MJO is expected to propagate eastward over the Western Hemisphere during late August and then shift back to the Indian Ocean by early September.

• The strong El Niño and a favorable MJO are likely to result in multiple TCs developing over the East Pacific through the end of August. However, a robust monsoon response in the Desert Southwest of the U.S. is not expected.

• High shear, associated with El Niño, will continue to inhibit TC formation in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

• A wave-1 pattern persisted in the global upper-level velocity potential fields predominantly tied to the strong El Niño.

• Although the strong El Niño is the main influence on the velocity potential anomalies, the MJO recently shifted east across the Pacific which led to the largest anomalous upper-level divergence in the past six months. 

• As the enhanced phase of MJO constructively interfered with the El Niño base state during early to mid-August, the RMM index exited the unit circle in Phase 6.  

• This behavior of the RMM based signal is very similar to the path taken earlier this summer. 

• Positive SST anomalies continue over the central and eastern Pacific, with anomalies now at 1.8°C across NINO 3.4.  NINO 4 has gradually cooled during the past several weeks, associated with increased cloudiness over the region.  

• Remarkably strong positive subsurface temperature anomalies (> 2.5°C) persist across the Eastern Pacific.

• Negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded eastward to near the Date Line.

• A majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members depict the RMM index remaining over phases 6 and 7 due to the strong El Niño. It is difficult to discern the MJO evolution during the next month. 

[Terpeast]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That’s going to be too warm for “all snow” storms along i-95. If we could get that GOA low a bit west, the NA ridge a bit north or east, it’ll make room for a stronger and better placed trough over the SE with a pathway for cold enough air. It’s close to something good, but not quite what we need

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That ridge is going to lift towards Greenland on the heels of the latter January/eary February reflection event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw. 

Not in the seasonal mean, no.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December and most of January, sure....that is a DJF mean. I don't necessarily agree for February.

Now there it is, that’s what we want. I hope the bad look is more confined to December. We’ve lost too many februaries in the last several years

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

It worked in 09-10 but that’s because there was a TPV anchored near James Bay that could phase with these pacific systems. Without that, we’re just relying on dynamic cooling which tends to only favor snow for the mountains. Pacific jet is also usually too strong to allow a TPV to anchor up there. 

PNA was positive every month in 09-10. That is not showing +pna. PNA was +1.25 in Jan 10 and +2 in March 10. 

[JACKASS]

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What’s your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

[JACKASS]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.

Maybe it’s just me, but a warmer and wetter winter, just has me on edge for freezing rain.

Which I despise for obvious reasons.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

@40/70 Benchmark and the rest of you with a clear head.

What are your thoughts on ice storms this winter?

Memorable one? Same odds as a HECS....gonna be about timing things right when the pattern is more conducive in the back half. EPO is likely + in the seasonal mean, so need to score on a window.

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic getting repeated rainstorm cycles in August?

Everything with the Record Nino is right on track.

This, is gonnabe good!

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, Jebman said:

Well, I now live in a rather dry part of the country, near Austin, TX. I have been down here since Aug 26, 2018. It's been 8 years. I am REALLY looking forward to any extra rain that the record Nino can give us, and I KNOW that the Southeastern US is gonna get waterworlded BAD by this enso event. DMV Region, too.

I think that there will be a few times this winter when extreme moisture in the DC region will meet up with Arctic air and they could see some new snow records get set.

You live in the DC area, might want to stock up on food, beer, hundreds of your favorite IPA's, salt, shovels and snowblowers.

Just in case.....

Good luck to you Jeb! Hopefully you get your rain and maybe a sneaky snow.

I live in the Detroit area, not DC. Im always prepared for winter. I usually get a new shovel every 2 years but keep the snowblower haha. 

DC should definitely have noreaster potential this year though.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/14/2026 at 6:40 PM, EasternLI said:

These are big claims, don't see why not though TBH.

 

 

 

How could there possibly have been a 4 year el nino in the late 1700s? That has to be fiction. What we did have back then was a gigantic volcanic eruption in Iceland called Toba and that altered our climate in a big way for years to come.

[LibertyBell]

On 8/15/2026 at 8:43 AM, LakePaste25 said:

Definitely true for temperature records too. There’s no possible way that Phoenixville, PA hit 111 in the early 1900s. Many of these should be tossed IMO. 

I thought so too but there were some amazing and widespread heat waves back then that haven't been matched since. Early July 1911 is a case in point. Mount Pocono was 98, 99 and 103 for three straight days and has never been higher than 95 since then. I thought this had to be an instrument error but then I saw Boston all time high of 104 is from the same period and even the mountains of northern New England were over 100 degrees. That was some mega heat dome and for reference a 103 degree reading at Mount Pocono is a sea level adjusted temperature of 114 degrees!