Friday February 6 FROPA / WINDEX small event

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Some TV mets are mentiong how a small shift in the trough will mean a big difference. 

Yep. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=viswnd_prob_series&sector=ne

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

One of my favorite weather memories, especially because the models were burying us a few days later as well. 

yeah this was a nice one when I was in Waterbury, lost my wedding ring in the snow that night and we'd just gotten married a few months before, but wound up with a good 10" I think, one of many that month. roofs collapsing everywhere 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro still meh for northeastern Ma

[40/70 Benchmark]

Updated my map....this for real Final.

First & Final Call:

 

 

[Massplow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Updated my map....this for real Final.

First & Final Call:

 

 

Gives me more snow so I’ll allow it

[Ginx snewx]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I can't lose...even there, I'd take 2".

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Gives me more snow so I’ll allow it

 Sometimes I fib a bit if I only do one call and the data changes significantly.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't lose...even there, I'd take 2".

Probably 5 or 6 here if ratios are good

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Down in RI at 21z.....GFS sounding....TTs now around 55. 

 

Can't even get TTs like that during the summer

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Gotta find one a little more adiabatic H6-H5 to find that elusive 60 TT 

I’ve only seen those 60+ TTs a small handful of times widespread during a winter/WINDEX type event…Jan 28, 2010 was one of them. I remember a pretty good one in Feb 2013 (wanna say 2/24/13) where some guidance was ramping up the TTs but I don’t think they quite reached 60. 

[Roger Smith]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Imma say this right now. Someone is getting 12-15”. Absolutely 

Where most likely in your opinion? I am thinking there could be 5-6" near ORH and one 4-8" band southeast of BOS maybe Scituate or Plymouth. It will be a general 2-4" further west. I get the higher estimate though, this will take several hours to develop overnight so some place could in theory have nine or ten hours of low density snow. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ve only seen those 60+ TTs a small handful of times widespread during a winter/WINDEX type event…Jan 28, 2010 was one of them. I remember a pretty good one in Feb 2013 (wanna say 2/24/13) where some guidance was ramping up the TTs but I don’t think they quite reached 60. 

The 2010 one was the best WINDEX can recall.   

[8611Blizz]

Have to go with a region wide 2-6. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 Sometimes I fib a bit if I only do one call and the data changes significantly.

I’m kind of surprised you even made one.  Not your favorite type of event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m kind of surprised you even made one.  Not your favorite type of event. 

No, but it now seems too significant to ignore.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro still stubbornly bad here. Hopefully this isn’t the event it decided to kick the glue 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Where most likely in your opinion? I am thinking there could be 5-6" near ORH and one 4-8" band southeast of BOS maybe Scituate or Plymouth. It will be a general 2-4" further west. I get the higher estimate though, this will take several hours to develop overnight so some place could in theory have nine or ten hours of low density snow. 

E CT/ RI up into ORH county seems easy 6-10. E shore MA especially up by Newburyport is probably 12+. similar to the one in Maine earlier this winter with 12+ amounts 

[dendrite]

EC AI still hedging toward the other models.

[SouthCoastMA]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro still stubbornly bad here. Hopefully this isn’t the event it decided to kick the glue 

Doubt it. Seems clueless

[WinterWolf]

If the Euro falls on its face…trash that POS..period. If it wins, it gets a reprieve. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12-14" depth here....average is 13.5"

Down from peak depth of 20-22" (21") two weeks ago.

8" loss to mostly settling, but some melting of late.

[WinterWolf]

Congratulations out east…if we see 1-2” it’ll be nice here.  We’ve had a good run here this year so far, and out did a lot places in December…especially 12/26/25.  So enjoy out east. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12-14" depth here....average is 13.5"

Down from peak depth of 20-22" (21") two weeks ago.

8" loss to mostly settling, but some melting of late.

10 to 13 average  11.5  8 inch loss 

[WinterWolf]

Temps drop all day tomorrow….brutal by afternoon. The real deal with the wind. 

[512high]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12-14" depth here....average is 13.5"

Down from peak depth of 20-22" (21") two weeks ago.

8" loss to mostly settling, but some melting of late.

Ray, Ray, Ray WTF you now have me in the 1-3" ? WMUR mets 3-6" close to their 6"+ line for me, which seems really close? Anyways  good luck on you call, we shall see.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

10 to 13 average  11.5  8 inch loss 

Snowfall forecast please 

[H2Otown_WX]

48 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The 2010 one was the best WINDEX can recall.   

That's the heaviest snow I've ever seen besides maybe Blizz '13 but it was dark during the height of that

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ray, Ray, Ray WTF you now have me in the 1-3" ? WMUR mets 3-6" close to their 6"+ line for me, which seems really close? Anyways  good luck on you call, we shall see.

Phil, be ready to plow 6"+....it's a PIA forecast that will be largely mesoscale dependent. I'm hedging on some subby adjacent to the coastal band. It's also hinted at in some of the guidance.