2/6-7: Clipper Pack Refresher

[jonjon]

2 minutes ago, gunny23 said:

We just decided to bail on coming.  Between the drive out friday evening and miserable (ski) conditions, we will sit this one out!

Good call

There will be better weekends to come ahead

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX... I thought Blizzard Watches didn't exist anymore?

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow
(totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday
morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather
Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and
western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls
and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower
overall snow totals (2-4 inches).

The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull
where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of
snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with
the Arctic front.

The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it
east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday
afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other
ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe
2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the
Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense
activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach
1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr.

Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.

The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton where snow totals
around 6 inches are likely, with significant impacts from
blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.

Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.

A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure
building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure
gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent
upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid-
Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks
in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95
corridor Saturday morning.

Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb,
with a stout inversion located just above that level between
850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the
inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below
that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee
waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix
down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected
right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high
confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper
40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65
mph) possible.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the
Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is
highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to
issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east
to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low
for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be
revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most
likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

You might hit -30 wind chill and -20 seems certain. I would think -25 to -30  is in the historic category 

Sounds like good weather to go camping....

[Jake Wx]

18z HRRR

[WEATHER53]

Just now, IronTy said:

Sounds like good weather to go camping....

I will never forget  your rundown of your tent and family when cabin being built .  What were those inside and outside and wind numbers again please?

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife is making me go see her parents this weekend.  We fly to Tampa Saturday morning...I'm sad I'll be missing the historic wind chill

It appears to me you are developing a fever not conducive to traveling??!!

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I will never forget  your rundown of your tent and family when cabin being built .  What were those inside and outside and wind numbers again please?

I think it was -23F on the air temp and -42F on the wind chill? Interior of the tent was below zero but I can't remember how cold.  

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Afternoon AFD from LWX... I thought Blizzard Watches didn't exist anymore?

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow
(totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday
morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather
Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and
western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls
and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower
overall snow totals (2-4 inches).

The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull
where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of
snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with
the Arctic front.

The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it
east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday
afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other
ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe
2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the
Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense
activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach
1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr.

Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.

The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton where snow totals
around 6 inches are likely, with significant impacts from
blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.

Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.

A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure
building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure
gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent
upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid-
Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks
in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95
corridor Saturday morning.

Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb,
with a stout inversion located just above that level between
850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the
inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below
that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee
waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix
down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected
right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high
confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper
40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65
mph) possible.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the
Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is
highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to
issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east
to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low
for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be
revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most
likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.

 

Guess they forgot lol 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think it was -23F on the air temp and -42F on the wind chill? Interior of the tent was below zero but I can't remember how cold.  

Now Mrs Iron took a sabbatical from thee until average daily high was 70 I believe?????????

[CAPE]

High wind watch.. don't see that often here.

Fuck..

Friday Night

A chance of light snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

A chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Now Mrs Iron took a sabbatical from thee until average daily high was 70 I believe?????????

Yeah, it may have been a bridge too far for her and the dog.  

[katabatic]

5 hours ago, jonjon said:

I personally believe we'll outperform based on the models, the trajectory of the storm and high ratios will be our friend on this one.

However, the projected high temp of 2 degrees and winds pushing 50mph on Saturday is gonna make it a stay inside type of weekend . . .

I like the way you think! Pretty sure we'll at least try to get to Davis tomorrow afternoon. Don't have a death wish, so we'll see but there is nothing like a solo drive on 90 getting to Thomas in the snow from Oakland. I think that ~13 mile stretch might be my favorite drive around here. Had a nice visit to Stumptown a few weeks ago and if we're in the hood, we'll stop by again. 

[katabatic]

4 hours ago, IronTy said:

Sounds like good weather to go camping....

Hell yeah! I absolutely LIVE FOR THIS! I must say tho my offer to go tubing at Canaan Saturday night hasn't had many takers, unfortunately. I've promised the hubby a puppy if he'd go but given he's been outside 10 hours a day for weeks on end at Wisp, even the promise of a lil muffin isn't moving the needle. If anyone is around, lemme know and I'll pay for the ticket lol. 

[IronTy]

34 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Hell yeah! I absolutely LIVE FOR THIS! I must say tho my offer to go tubing at Canaan Saturday night hasn't had many takers, unfortunately. I've promised the hubby a puppy if he'd go but given he's been outside 10 hours a day for weeks on end at Wisp, even the promise of a lil muffin isn't moving the needle. If anyone is around, lemme know and I'll pay for the ticket lol. 

Unfortunately I'm going to miss out on it as I will be down here in Calvert.  I hope they don't lose power up there and all my pipes freeze, that would suck.  During that epic campout in the middle of the night my wife had to go to the bathroom and somehow the dog escaped the tent and I thought for sure he was a goner in the storm and froze to death.  Found him shivering next to the truck.  Was a stressful ten minutes for sure.  

[snowfan]

[GreyHat]

Delmarva 

134 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY...

...EXTREME COLD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST

SUNDAY...

 

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph

  with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Extreme Cold Warning,

  dangerously cold wind chills as low as 14 below expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of Delaware, northeast Maryland, and southern New

  Jersey.

 

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 8 AM to 9 PM EST Saturday.

  For the Extreme Cold Warning, from 3 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST

  Sunday.

[LeesburgWx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-504-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-527-061530-
/O.CON.KLWX.HW.W.0001.260207T0900Z-260208T0000Z/
/O.CON.KLWX.CW.Y.0011.260207T0900Z-260208T1500Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St.
Marys-Calvert-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and
Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
219 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...
...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10
AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, northwest winds 20 to 30 mph
  with gusts up to 60 mph expected. For the Cold Weather Advisory,
  very cold wind chills as low as 13 below expected.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central and southern Maryland, and
  northern Virginia.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.
  For the Cold Weather Advisory, from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST
  Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills as low
  as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are
  not taken.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will remain at or below zero
  during the day on Saturday due to windy conditions and cold
  temperatures.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and
avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution
if you must drive.

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and
unfrozen water.

&&

$$

[TSSN+]

Hope don’t lose power tomorrow seesh 

IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles. The cold wind chills as low
  as 15 below zero could result in hypothermia or frostbite if
  precautions are not taken.

 

[poolz1]

Already some snow showers moving into the western areas.  Temp at the house is 16 and cloudy.  Should be no problem with road stickage

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Already some snow showers moving into the western areas.  Temp at the house is 16 and cloudy.  Should be no problem with road stickage

Where are our western posters? Curious if there is any ground truth there. Looks earlier than I'd've expected.

[BlizzardNole]

16 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Already some snow showers moving into the western areas.  Temp at the house is 16 and cloudy.  Should be no problem with road stickage

You're in a good spot up there - South Mtn just to your east should help squeeze more out!  Cloudy and 20 here

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Where are our western posters? Curious if there is any ground truth there. Looks earlier than I'd've expected.

22 degrees and clouding out here in Swoope (Augusta County).  Still waiting on snow to start.

[Solution Man]

 

Reflectivity 

 

[LeesburgWx]

12z NAM is better for us in NOVA. 

I can't help but laugh at this forecast:

Today

Scattered snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tonight

Scattered snow showers, mainly before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a light and variable wind becoming northwest 19 to 24 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 17. Wind chill values as low as -11. Windy, with a northwest wind 29 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 17 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Reflectivity 

 

All virga.

[SnowenOutThere]

Yeah I didn’t see anything on my walk/run to class 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Yeah I'm not seeing the current snow showers on the radar on any of the short range guidance, interesting to see if it hits the ground.  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah I didn’t see anything on my walk/run to class 

Plan to hike Shenandoah on my way home to nova around midday. Hopefully have some luck at 3000 ft

[paxpatriot]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

Reflectivity 

 

This post made me look closely out the window here in Hagerstown. I've seen a few mangled flakes, but this air is super dry this morning so it looks like mostly virga. Maybe those slightly better returns out west of me are doing a little better?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

How good are HRRR surface temps?  It barely has DC getting above 10 tomorrow.