2/6-7: Clipper Pack Refresher

[jonjon]

2 minutes ago, gunny23 said:

We just decided to bail on coming.  Between the drive out friday evening and miserable (ski) conditions, we will sit this one out!

Good call

There will be better weekends to come ahead

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX... I thought Blizzard Watches didn't exist anymore?

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow
(totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday
morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather
Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and
western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls
and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower
overall snow totals (2-4 inches).

The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull
where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of
snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with
the Arctic front.

The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it
east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday
afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other
ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe
2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the
Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense
activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach
1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr.

Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.

The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton where snow totals
around 6 inches are likely, with significant impacts from
blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.

Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.

A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure
building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure
gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent
upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid-
Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks
in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95
corridor Saturday morning.

Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb,
with a stout inversion located just above that level between
850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the
inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below
that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee
waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix
down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected
right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high
confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper
40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65
mph) possible.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the
Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is
highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to
issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east
to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low
for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be
revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most
likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

You might hit -30 wind chill and -20 seems certain. I would think -25 to -30  is in the historic category 

Sounds like good weather to go camping....

[Jake Wx]

18z HRRR

[WEATHER53]

Just now, IronTy said:

Sounds like good weather to go camping....

I will never forget  your rundown of your tent and family when cabin being built .  What were those inside and outside and wind numbers again please?

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife is making me go see her parents this weekend.  We fly to Tampa Saturday morning...I'm sad I'll be missing the historic wind chill

It appears to me you are developing a fever not conducive to traveling??!!

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I will never forget  your rundown of your tent and family when cabin being built .  What were those inside and outside and wind numbers again please?

I think it was -23F on the air temp and -42F on the wind chill? Interior of the tent was below zero but I can't remember how cold.  

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Afternoon AFD from LWX... I thought Blizzard Watches didn't exist anymore?

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-Blizzard conditions expected in the
Alleghenies late Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Given the high confidence in the intense bursts of snow
(totaling 6-8 inches) over the Alleghenies Friday into Saturday
morning, then Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton. A Winter Weather
Advisory was issued for western Allegany, western Mineral, and
western Highland counties where spillover snow showers/squalls
and blowing snow are expected to be a concern, though with lower
overall snow totals (2-4 inches).

The first round of snow showers reach the Alleghenies late
Friday morning through the evening. Then, there could be a lull
where snow is mostly light, then the a second, stronger burst of
snow showers (possible snow squalls) arrive Friday night with
the Arctic front.

The 12Z high res guidance shows snow showers easily making it
east of the mountains, with a dusting to around an inch Friday
afternoon to evening. The northern Blue Ridge, along with other
ridges in the Potomac Highlands could get close to 1.5 to maybe
2 inches of snow. Snow rates look to be around 1"/hour in the
Alleghenies, possibly up to 2"/hr with the most intense
activity. Even east of the mountains, snow rates could approach
1"/hour, but mostly will be around 0.5"/hr.

Synoptic discussion: A series of mid/upper troughs will
traverse the area Friday into Saturday, bringing several intense
periods of snow to the Alleghenies. The leading shortwave
arrives Friday morning to afternoon, then the main upper trough
and Arctic front cross the area Saturday morning.

The strong trough crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic will
provide ample lift to generate heavy snow showers across the
mountains Friday into Saturday. In addition, increasing
instability through the DGZ Friday evening and very high SLRs
will generate squalls. Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for
Garrett, western Grant, and western Pendleton where snow totals
around 6 inches are likely, with significant impacts from
blowing and drifting snow. Travel disruptions are likely along
I-68/US-40 west of Frostburg, MD, US-219 from the PA/MD line
south to the WV line, US-48 west of Moorefield, WV, US-33/WV-28
west of Franklin, WV, and US-250 west of Monterey, VA.

Strengthening winds will also lead to significant blowing and
drifting snow. The strongest winds on Saturday don`t overlap
with the best lift and instability, so don`t see a need for a
Blizzard Watch. Squalls will likely continue through the day
Saturday given the strength of the low- level flow and high
Froude numbers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Extreme cold and strong winds will result in
dangerous wind chills this weekend.

A deepening low moving offshore, with Arctic high pressure
building in from the west will result in a very tight pressure
gradient over the area Friday night into Saturday. A potent
upper trough will dig into the Appalachians / northern Mid-
Atlantic early Saturday morning. This induces a LLJ that peaks
in strength over the northern Shenandoah Valley toward I-95
corridor Saturday morning.

Model soundings continue to show mixing up to around 925mb,
with a stout inversion located just above that level between
850-900mb. The strongest winds are maximized just above the
inversion, but there is still around 50-60 kt of wind just below
that inversion. The strong synoptic setup (with breaking lee
waves off the Alleghenies) will allow these strong winds to mix
down to the surface. A sudden onset of strong winds is expected
right right as the Arctic front passes through. There is high
confidence for widespread, persistent gusts in the mid to upper
40kt range (50-55 mph), with occasional gusts to 50-55kt (60-65
mph) possible.

A High Wind Watch has been issued for those along/east of the
Allegheny Front, and the Blue Ridge, where confidence is
highest for gusts of 60-65 mph. There was consideration given to
issuing a High Wind Watch for the lower terrain, including east
to the DC and Baltimore Metro areas, but confidence remains low
for an extended period of gusts above 50kt. This will be
revisited with new model data tonight and tomorrow. The most
likely scenario remains a Wind Advisory for gusts of 45-55 mph.

 

Guess they forgot lol 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I think it was -23F on the air temp and -42F on the wind chill? Interior of the tent was below zero but I can't remember how cold.  

Now Mrs Iron took a sabbatical from thee until average daily high was 70 I believe?????????

[CAPE]

High wind watch.. don't see that often here.

Fuck..

Friday Night

A chance of light snow after 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday

A chance of snow showers before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph.

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Now Mrs Iron took a sabbatical from thee until average daily high was 70 I believe?????????

Yeah, it may have been a bridge too far for her and the dog.