Is we back? February discussion thread

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But the warmer pattern means more chances so we’ll roll the dice.

Would def rather roll the dice. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks mixy down there but decent QPF

[ORH_wxman]

GFS trying for next Monday but this run will be wide right. That’s the one to watch. There’s advisory potential on the earlier events but upside is limited. The Monday system would have more upside. 

[qg_omega]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If we want to make a run late month or early March I’d like for this to change. 

March looks warm and then cold in April

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM is focusing most of the stuff on the Saturday/Sunday shortwave…decent little event but again, those prob have limited upside potential of high end advisory or maybe low end warning. 

[ORH_wxman]

The AI guidance has seemed to like the Monday threat more than the others. Though I thought the 06z OP Euro looked pretty threatening at 144h. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not bad out. Snow is taking a beating even with modest temps. Probably lost 6+ inches last 3-4 days 

[MJO812]

Watch the 23rd

[CoastalWx]

It would be nice if one of these weaker systems did work out. Good winters would find a way.

[dmillz25]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

March looks warm and then cold in April

How do you know?

[weathafella]

Well I’m coming back 2 weeks from tomorrow.  Sounds like there’s time to evolve into a snowy and coldish pattern by then.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

55 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

March looks warm and then cold in April

Sounds about right for SNE. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sounds about right for SNE. 

3 months of 45° and rain incoming soon

[ORH_wxman]

Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. 
 

It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. 
 

It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday. 

That timeframe has a signal from all the models. Brief spike in pna ridge ?

[Boston Bulldog]

Seen lots of “tenor” talk this year being used to project colder outcomes. Yes I think there is some credence to this year having a distinct trend of modeled ridging regimes getting muted, we’ve seen some gnarly looking torches (early January for example) get cut down into brief thaws and or mixed events. However, there is an additional “tenor” to this season that will likely lead to some SNE disappointment mid-to-late next week: overmodeled blocking and confluence in the medium range.

We saw this on the 12/26-27 event, in which confluence remained strong but trended rapidly away from complete suppression in the final 36 hours until flakes started. We also saw blocking relax substantially from medium range projections for the mega-SWFE in January. In both of these cases, the majority of this forum’s SNE contingent benefitted.

Even the colder storm during the muted warmup on 1/10-1/11 saw a bit of southerly pushing against confluence. The double barreled low pressure, which was destined to cut without high latitude help, pushed farther north in short range modeling. Despite salvaging the potential cutter 4-5 days out from verification, there was a slight boomeranging that occurred in the final 24-36 hours where confluence relaxed a bit.  Thus substantial mixing was introduced into CNE and NNE regions that were previously supposed to remain frozen.

It’s possible the midrange blocking relaxing slightly into the short range occurs again, the “tenor” of high amplitude blocks seem to be overmodeled this year. Of course, the implications are that warmth lifts farther north. NNE and CNE seem like a much better spot to be in right now for next week, despite some operational models (GFS) keeping them dry on the initial wave.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That timeframe has a signal from all the models. Brief spike in pna ridge ?

Yeah it’s basically a temporary spike producing a good Rockies ridge…not a classic full scale PNA ridge but eastern Rockies ridges have often produced excellent systems.  That allows the shortwave to dig more and produce a coastal. We just don’t know quite yet where it makes the turn north. GFS was wide right. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro skynet is a huge hit for Monday. Let’s hope it has a clue. 
 

It’s actually ok for the Friday system too. CT peeps get a bit on Wednesday. 

Is it colder for the middle and end of week waves? Like snow/ice?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it colder for the middle and end of week waves? Like snow/ice?

Yeah euro skynet is pretty cold for both smaller waves (Wed and Fri)…the Wed event is pretty suppressed on that model. Doesn’t get precip north of pike. 

[MJO812]

Euro is also now on board with a coastal storm on the 23rd.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah euro skynet is pretty cold for both smaller waves (Wed and Fri)…the Wed event is pretty suppressed on that model. Doesn’t get precip north of pike. 

Hopefully Euro follows suit . Need that boundary pressed down to Philly 

[ORH_wxman]

OP run is warmer for Wednesday. More of a CNE deal. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP run is warmer for Wednesday. More of a CNE deal. 

Wednesday is MA border north.. Friday meh and the Monday storm is east 

[radarman]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

the Wed event is pretty suppressed on that model. Doesn’t get precip north of pike. 

 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP run is warmer for Wednesday. More of a CNE deal. 

Well that clears things up

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

Well that clears things up

Compromise works great! 

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, radarman said:

 

Well that clears things up

hoping for something in between 

[ineedsnow]

12z EPS slightly south for Wednesday compared to 6z 

[ORH_wxman]

Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Saturday and Monday are in pretty good spots for 6 and 8 days out respectively. 

lots to like here IMO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

March looks warm and then cold in April

Kind of like January looked -PNA?

Looks can be deceiving.