Is we back? February discussion thread

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No arguments of a bit of a mild up but I’m not buying 50’s/60’s like that 

It depends...

Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60?  We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other.   Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now.  Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. 

It will correct very fast if given a reason.

Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through.  Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...  

 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely going to warm up in some form for a few days after V day weekend. This cold can't last forever. EPS also has a low to our NW at the same time.

Oh For sure. Nobody said it would last forever.  As Don said though, and this has been the take away for this winter so far, the warmth has been pushed at range by models, and it slowly but surely washes out, as we approach said timeframe. But January it did thaw out..no doubt. Other than that, it hasn’t.  A few days would be a relief though.  

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends...

Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60?  We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other.   Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now.  Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. 

It will correct very fast if given a reason.

Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through.  Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...  

 

In New England with a -NAO and frigid ocean temps .. I will sell high on any sustained torch . It will do everything in its power to thwart that given the antecedent elements this year 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In New England with a -NAO and frigid ocean temps .. I will sell high on any sustained torch . It will do everything in its power to thwart that given the antecedent elements this year 

That's the other thing ... people are referring to the times as -NAO ?

Not sure that applies to next week so much.  The fact of the matter is, the -NAO is rising pretty rapidly from now through that period and beyond.  

Oh wait ...when are you guys talking about ?

[WxWatcher007]

I don’t see 4-7 days as anything particularly enduring anyway. 40 or 60 it doesn’t really matter to me. Both would feel like spring. If I were to hazard a guess it’d be between 45-55 for highs for 4-7 days in CT followed by slightly BN temps thereafter with fewer Arctic intrusions as the hemispheric pattern moderates. SSW the wildcard in March. 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I absolutely do not. Not with all the snowpack in the Eastern US and Lakes and the -NAO / blocking. No way it’s that long or that warm 

Say bye to snow

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Say bye to snow

Wanna make a wager?

[TheClimateChanger]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends...

Not sure why people can't "imagine" soaring to 60?  We've pulled that off at this time of year virtually every time spanning the last 8 of 'em at one point or the other.   Just because we've been colder this year - okay... there's value in recognizing trend, but along the entire time we've not had models with red thickness contours as far N as we're seeing in guidance now.  Meanwhile, the background tendency to go above normal at least excuse imaginable, relative to leading indicators, hasn't gone anywhere just because we had a couple of cool months. 

It will correct very fast if given a reason.

Snow pack would offset some - but it's not clear how much if a warm front were to ever pass through.  Probably a lot of low fog over rapid melt, then the next day it goes up...  

 

I don't think this snow will be any match for the strong February sun angle.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Say bye to snow

Say bye to any early spring too…gonna go the duration this year. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wanna make a wager?

Its still going to be a cold pattern

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Numb nuts, we’re talking after the 15th.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its still going to be a cold pattern

Gonna have to wait until later in month. Should warm up after 15th for a few days anyways.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Please don't tell me all this warm talk is based on one operational run of a legacy model.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Their 8-14 day I’m sure has us in orange. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Please don't tell me all this warm talk based on one operational run of a legacy model?  

No I used the NAM as well. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

No I used the NAM as well. 

Phew.  At least there is some strong scientific backing.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh For sure. Nobody said it would last forever.  As Don said though, and this has been the take away for this winter so far, the warmth has been pushed at range by models, and it slowly but surely washes out, as we approach said timeframe. But January it did thaw out..no doubt. Other than that, it hasn’t.  A few days would be a relief though.  

Of the winter.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely looks like it’s trying to reload in Canada at the end of the EPS.

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Skynet is a joke about Euro and GFS AI. The saying comes from the movie Terminator when Skynet was the agency that controlled the machines

Lol... Thanks Scott; I thought it was some special run of the AI... When I saw Will use the term, I though it must be legit...  I'm familiar with Terminator, but did not make the connection...

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely looks like it’s trying to reload in Canada at the end of the EPS.

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern going into early March....not that they have been great this winter. 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies have a decent gradient pattern going into early March....not that they have been great this winter. 

 

I’d like to get the blocking back. Hopefully it’s comes back by March.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to get the blocking back. Hopefully it’s comes back by March.

Weeklies have been on and off with the blocking in march. This run was still pretty cold but didn't have much Atlantic blocking. But previous runs have had it. It's the hardest form of blocking to predict though, so can't take much stock in that part of it. 

 

You can see the trailing 5-day mean here for Mar 10-15 (similar for the several days around it).....basically a +TNH pattern....but if we throw a bit more ATL blocking on top if guidance is struggling with that, then you could imagine it could get pretty fun...but even this pattern could do some things

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

Obligatory 240 snowmap GFS off hour:

 

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Obligatory 240 snowmap GFS off hour:

 

Says 24h @ 150?