Is we back? February discussion thread

[WinterWolf]

Next week looks active…hoping something can break right.  Meanwhile we have some soft snow falling. 

[kdxken]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Who was it yesterday you posted that said it’s gonna be warm…was it them?  

Yeah it was him but he was talking more about the Ohio valley and Midwest

[alex]

Nice overperformer this morning 

[SouthCoastMA]

2/11-12 does look more interesting per the AI guidance.

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

2/11-12 does look more interesting per the AI guidance.

1-3"?

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

1-3"?

interesting, as in, seems like its been trending better. We'll see if it continues to trend more amplified, closer to the coast. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

AI Euro has a nice event next weekend... although I guess it startes earlier than that as SouthCoast said

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

interesting, as in, seems like its been trending better. We'll see if it continues to trend more amplified, closer to the coast. 

seems the ai gfs/euro are 1-3"/2-4 with a little redevelopment of that clipper, but not much support from the gefs at 0z anyway

[weatherwiz]

@40/70 Benchmark

Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This must be in response to CPC finally replacing the archaic and outdated ONI, which I have been virtually ignoring in my intensity assessments for a few years now.

Yup.

Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now. 

[weatherwiz]

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

@40/70 Benchmark

Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Nice overperformer this morning 

 

Yeah suns out now but grabbed 4” of total fluff at the Mtn as that cold front came through.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

Same...I was incorporating everything...I would follow the ONI as long as the RONI and MEI weren't inordinately different....if they were, I would defer to them and maybe use ONI as a tie-breaker. I probably still will.

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah suns out now but grabbed 4” of total fluff at the Mtn as that cold front came through.

OMG. Love mornings like this on a mountain. Perfect snow for a lazy glide down the hill.

[SouthCoastMA]

cc @Torch Tiger

12z AIGFS isn't quite 1-3" anymore for 2/11

[CoastalWx]

Blocking seems slow to go which is a good thing. Usually what happens to strong persistent blocks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blocking seems slow to go which is a good thing. Usually what happens to strong persistent blocks.

Yea, that is our only shot with VD Day IMO...you can see the OP Euro erodes it faster, which is why it has had an inland runner a la Feb 2023, whereas the OP GFS keeps it more stout and we go a more Jan 2011 route.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is our only shot with VD Day IMO...you can see the OP Euro erodes it faster, which is why it has had an inland runner a la Feb 2023, whereas the OP GFS keeps it more stout and we go a more Jan 2011 route.

12z just shreds it lol.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blocking seems slow to go which is a good thing. Usually what happens to strong persistent blocks.

Yep

Models are starting to lose the warmth 

[CoastalWx]

We should watch the 11-12 too.

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Blocking seems slow to go which is a good thing. Usually what happens to strong persistent blocks.

We knew 

[ORH_wxman]

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. 
 

Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z just shreds it lol.

GEFS probably won't.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GEFS probably won't.

Hope not. All set wasting weeks of peak climo.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... 

Oh it's not helping, sure.   But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles...

That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters...  it's identical. 

This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW...   just like there are those thinking similarly now.  But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event.

This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle...  The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def colder look mid-month….on both GFS and Canadian suites. Always be weary of the big torch look when you get blocking like that in the Atlantic…esp when there’s been a lot of recent cold with deep snow pack over a large area. 
 

Hopefully we can score one of these. Usually we can if historical -PNA/-NAO is any guide. Usually our bigger concern is ptype and not suppression. 

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. 

Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... 

Oh it's not helping, sure.   But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles...

That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters...  it's identical

Yeah that’s later on post-Ides. I have no idea what’s going to happen during that late Feb/early Mar period. If you keep the Atlantic blocking during that period and then try and insert a -EPO, then we could get something exotic. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's not the Atlantic that you gotta worry about as a spring/early warm enthusiast... 

Oh it's not helping, sure.   But the biggest player is what everyone is either ignoring, or just haven't seen yet because it's bursting onto the ens means ( all three - ) over just the last 6 or so cycles...

That's more than eerily similar to the -WPO/-EPO hybrid pattern that locked out late Nov to after Xmas and utterly dictated matters...  it's identical. 

This is also coupled to the ridge showing up in the 100 hPa level in the Strat/Trop monitoring, which also did the same thing back whence and a lot of folks were fooled into believing it was an early season SSW...   just like there are those thinking similarly now.  But it's not clear to me because it is not, frankly, a true up--> down intrusion/propagating event.

This is just a hemispheric shuffle... or re-shuffle...  The ideas of a warm post mid month ( as I warned yesterday...) might be in trouble as these patterns repeat over longer periods.

Not ignoring that, but didn’t clearly state it. I posted a few times that there’s signs of shuffling….meaning the Pacific getting better. As we get later in the season I just want to see money in the bank….aka a good airmass in Canada to tap into. If blocking persists that’s even better but not sure what to think about that.