Is we back? February discussion thread

[mahk_webstah]

If we back? Is we? Good, cuz I wants ta know.  
thank you Glozelle for these inspiring questions which I know we all have.

We have been Uber-focused on our big regionwide storm, which we all knew would come to Papa, and the latest threat, which is mostly dead to some of us, but very alive for others.

But we have other business to do in this first couple of weeks of February. A storm in the February 4-7 period? SSW late month?  
Welcome to Climo primetime people!

Let’s get to it.

[mahk_webstah]

Seems there will be some energy coming into the center of the country and heading east around February 4. Not sure how this evolves once it gets from the Midwest towards us. 
I would think that the coastal threats might be over for a couple of weeks, but they aren’t our bread and butter, anyhow

[kdxken]

One thing that seems settled. No relief from the cold. Might try ice fishing for stripers and flounder. 

[mahk_webstah]

Given the breath and depth of the snowpack here it would really take a pattern change in the pacific. I would think in order for us to get warm. No signs of that that I’ve seen and I think the Weekley’s keep us cold straight through February. The storm chances will come.

[mreaves]

33 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Given the breath and depth of the snowpack here it would really take a pattern change in the pacific. I would think in order for us to get warm. No signs of that that I’ve seen and I think the Weekley’s keep us cold straight through February. The storm chances will come.

Up here at least, the snow is so dry it could go poof pretty quickly. There is nothing to suggest that is likely but it would take days of 50s to do it. 

[EastonSN+]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Working on this in tandem with January wrap today.

[dendrite]

Looks like a pick’em on ending winter next week

[ORH_wxman]

I remember when he saw no shadow in 2013…I think we had like 75” of snow after that point. 
 

The smart pick though is for him to see his shadow. He sees it most years. 

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember when he saw no shadow in 2013…I think we had like 75” of snow after that point. 
 

The smart pick though is for him to see his shadow. He sees it most years. 

 

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember when he saw no shadow in 2013…I think we had like 75” of snow after that point. 
 

The smart pick though is for him to see his shadow. He sees it most years. 

Get your picks in

https://www.draftkings.com/samueladams

[mahk_webstah]

Looked at euro aifs whole run.  It has been good so…

Feb 5 thought looks like front with low to north 

Feb 11 moist storm perhaps swfe with track thru cne

maybe clipper or 2 in between.  

[MJO812]

Weeklies continue with this cold and stormy pattern until March.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like switching from positive PNAP to more of an overrunning risk spectrum  

[40/70 Benchmark]

January forecast did very well, although it was slightly colder than expected due to the unexpected late month -NAO.

There is also a preview of what may be an active February included.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/.../remarkably...

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like switching from positive PNAP to more of an overrunning risk spectrum  

ABSOLUTELY AGREED.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like switching from positive PNAP to more of an overrunning risk spectrum  

Bring it on, if we can stay a bit BN with Feb temps, overrunning events will rock the interior.  

[ineedsnow]

-10 here some -12s showing up now wasn't expecting it to be this cold this morning 

[MJO812]

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Per the Euro we are still below freezing through the 14th lol

[mahk_webstah]

My wunderground shows nothing for the next 10 days. Could be right, but I imagine we’ll sneak in a clipper or two

[Kitz Craver]

Cold, but looks pretty dry for the next 10

[Go Kart Mozart]

Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that.  A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice.

Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?

 

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Bring it on, if we can stay a bit BN with Feb temps, overrunning events will rock the interior.  

With the projected temps all of NE should prosper.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wish the trough was further west. Cold and dry look. Clippers?

[Heisy]

Cold, but looks pretty dry for the next 10

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

[Heisy]

With the ridge out west and confluence laid over SE Canada the main shortwave has no choice but to slowly dig

[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Respectfully disagree, the Feb 6th period is gaining a lot of traction over night. Euro Ai, ensemble, etc etc, shortwave gets trapped between ridge out west and some leftover confluence. Reminds me of Feb 4-5 95 for some reason

Super Bowl Pete RePete same teams with a snowstorm lurking

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Both AIs show a possible nor'easter later next week, but look really good for an SWFE pattern after that.  A repeat of 1/25...even at 2/3scale that would be nice.

Perhaps the transition away from PNAP is the moment for a good coastal?

 

Phase change HA storm?

[CoastalWx]

May have to watch late next week.