jlewis1111 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Turnaround Thursday tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 18 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Welp, might as well keep tracking this for Hampton Roads Given the trend they'll probably lose it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowFuturesTrading Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said: Ok, everyone throw in the towel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol And the hits keep comin’ …time for a break I guess. Weekend could have been epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And the hits keep comin’ …time for a break I guess. Weekend could have been epic. Yeah, the GFS has gone from worse to dreadful. Whatever you see is just a mirage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Last 4 gfs runs. Keep an eye on the system north of the Dakotas and how the closer it gets, the further east our storm goes Jv model. 24 hours behind even the icon and rgem lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 16 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol 18z GFS was predicting nearly an inch of snow for DCA tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 33 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It has the highest verification scores at H5. That is a fact, and it is no one’s imagination. Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS............... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, stormy said: Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS............... LOL - you continue to have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good. It was neither "wrong about the predominant precipitation type" nor was it "wrong about the total qpf." It was actually, all things considered, one of the best performing models with last weekend's system. That doesn't mean it's always right or perfect - no model is - but the criteria you are using to claim a poor performance is simply absurd. Did it get every detail correct? Most assuredly not. But it was "more right" and for longer, with less wavering, than basically any other model I can think of. The only way it performed poorly is if you look at it through the lens of someone looking at Kuchera snow maps and amateur snow weenie eyes and say "Y d1Dnt i GeT mY l6 incherz1?!!?" Like the other globals, it was a little slow on the changeover because mid-level thermals aren't really the wheelhouse of those models. But if you could have only picked one model leasing up to the last storm (which, to be clear, you shouldn't do) the Euro was clearly the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I rate the likelihood of a storm by how many new pages to a thread get posted here after a suite of model runs. I don’t have science behind it but it’s the most accurate read of the situation. . 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I think it's time to unpin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I think it's time to unpin. How dare you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said: How dare you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: CMC looked pretty good for Newark DE…you discounting that? LOL, it does look great. We should honestly be glad this storm isn't happening for mostly anyone, if it was, someone was going to smoke cirrus while 30 miles away was getting 6-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: LOL, it does look great. We should honestly be glad this storm isn't happening for mostly anyone, if it was, someone was going to smoke cirrus while 30 miles away was getting 6-12 inches. Yeah it’s hard to see how this turns around. They don’t all come north unless it’s gonna be rain. Then it’s a lock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 lol, Euro slightly better 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, Euro slightly better By which you mean the Eastern shore is missed by 29 miles instead of 30 miles? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 12z18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 low on the coast..before, it was off. We still miss, but it's closer 18z 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 we still don't get much, but kinda funny that it got closer 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: we still don't get much, but kinda funny that it got closer Baby steps- tomorrow is moving day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wants to keep teasing us some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW.... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW.... Not out quite yet, I will be in the Raleigh area beginning Friday evening until Monday. Gonna head out Friday instead of Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Why can't the models be more consistent in the ways that they screw us? seems to be what people are wondering here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 What the fuck 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW.... I feel like it’s been a good good while since we’ve had a storm where any little positive shift could have us go from like 2-4 to 4-8 like nothing down this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steckstacks Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Maybe this is a preview for a bigger 0z jump by the Euro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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