The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[jlewis1111]

Turnaround Thursday tomorrow

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Welp, might as well keep tracking this for Hampton Roads

Given the trend they'll probably lose it tomorrow.

[EHoffman]

Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol

[SnowFuturesTrading]

7 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Ok, everyone throw in the towel

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol

And the hits keep comin’ …time for a break I guess.  Weekend could have been epic.  

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And the hits keep comin’ …time for a break I guess.  Weekend could have been epic.  

Yeah, the GFS has gone from worse to dreadful. Whatever you see is just a mirage. 

[Chris78]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last 4 gfs runs. Keep an eye on the system north of the Dakotas and how the closer it gets, the further east our storm goes

Jv model. 24 hours behind even the icon and rgem lol

[rjvanals]

16 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Unrelated but NWS removed our chance of snow tonight lol

18z GFS was predicting nearly an inch of snow for DCA tonight 

[stormy]

33 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

It has the highest verification scores at H5.  That is a fact, and it is no one’s imagination.

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules.

The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule.

Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about  total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. 

These are the important factors to rate a model.

 It is not a king.  Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong.

Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast.........  Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

[TowsonWeather]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules.

The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule.

Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about  total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. 

These are the important factors to rate a model.

 It is not a king.  Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong.

Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast.........  Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

LOL - you continue to have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good. 

It was neither "wrong about the predominant precipitation type" nor was it "wrong about the total qpf." It was actually, all things considered, one of the best performing models with last weekend's system. That doesn't mean it's always right or perfect - no model is - but the criteria you are using to claim a poor performance is simply absurd. Did it get every detail correct? Most assuredly not. But it was "more right" and for longer, with less wavering, than basically any other model I can think of. The only way it performed poorly is if you look at it through the lens of someone looking at Kuchera snow maps and amateur snow weenie eyes and say "Y d1Dnt i GeT mY l6 incherz1?!!?"

Like the other globals, it was a little slow on the changeover because mid-level thermals aren't really the wheelhouse of those models. But if you could have only picked one model leasing up to the last storm (which, to be clear, you shouldn't do) the Euro was clearly the best. 

[AdamHLG]

I rate the likelihood of a storm by how many new pages to a thread get posted here after a suite of model runs. I don’t have science behind it but it’s the most accurate read of the situation.


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[JenkinsJinkies]

I think it's time to unpin.

[Benjamn3]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think it's time to unpin.

 How dare you

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said:

 How dare you

 

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

CMC looked pretty good for Newark DE…you discounting that? 

LOL, it does look great. 

We should honestly be glad this storm isn't happening for mostly anyone, if it was, someone was going to smoke cirrus while 30 miles away was getting 6-12 inches.

[BristowWx]

Just now, RevWarReenactor said:

LOL, it does look great. 

We should honestly be glad this storm isn't happening for mostly anyone, if it was, someone was going to smoke cirrus while 30 miles away was getting 6-12 inches.

Yeah it’s hard to see how this turns around.  They don’t all come north unless it’s gonna be rain.  Then it’s a lock.  

[stormtracker]

lol, Euro slightly better

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, Euro slightly better

By which you mean the Eastern shore is missed by 29 miles instead of 30 miles?

[stormtracker]

12z18z

 

[stormtracker]

low on the coast..before, it was off.  We still miss, but it's closer

18z

12z

[stormtracker]

we still don't get much, but kinda funny that it got closer

[Prestige Worldwide]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

we still don't get much, but kinda funny that it got closer

Baby steps- tomorrow is moving day 

[Amped]

Wants to keep teasing us some more.

[Bob Chill]

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

Not out quite yet, I will be in the Raleigh area beginning Friday evening until Monday. Gonna head out Friday instead of Sunday. 

[Roger Smith]

Why can't the models be more consistent in the ways that they screw us? seems to be what people are wondering here. 

[IronTy]

What the fuck 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not sure how much things can shift with the time left but euro AI made a notable jump NW....

I feel like it’s been a good good while since we’ve had a storm where any little positive shift could have us go from like 2-4 to 4-8 like nothing down this way. 

[Steckstacks]

Maybe this is a preview for a bigger 0z jump by the Euro.


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