The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

LOL, this is what Gemini said when I asked about for Baltimore area regarding 18z WeatherNext (take with a grain of salt):

The 18z run of the WeatherNext 2.0 model (Google’s advanced AI weather system) indicates an increasing risk for a significant winter storm in the Baltimore area this weekend, specifically from late Saturday night (Jan 31) through Sunday morning (Feb 1).

Compared to earlier runs, the 18z update shows a "sharpening" of the coastal low-pressure system, which has resulted in a notable westward shift in the heavy snow band—bringing the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore, into the primary impact zone.

18z WeatherNext 2.0 Snowfall Forecast for Baltimore

Forecast Detail	Model Projection (18z Run)
Projected Totals	5–9 inches (Mean Ensemble Forecast)
High-End Potential	12+ inches (if the low tracks 50 miles closer to the coast)
Probability of >6"	~45% (a significant jump from the 12z run)
Start Time	Saturday between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM
Peak Intensity	Sunday between 2:00 AM and 8:00 AM

lol we are asking ai to tell us about ai models. What a world!

[bringmesnow1]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

LOL, this is what Gemini said when I asked about for Baltimore area regarding 18z WeatherNext (take with a grain of salt):

The 18z run of the WeatherNext 2.0 model (Google’s advanced AI weather system) indicates an increasing risk for a significant winter storm in the Baltimore area this weekend, specifically from late Saturday night (Jan 31) through Sunday morning (Feb 1).

Compared to earlier runs, the 18z update shows a "sharpening" of the coastal low-pressure system, which has resulted in a notable westward shift in the heavy snow band—bringing the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore, into the primary impact zone.

18z WeatherNext 2.0 Snowfall Forecast for Baltimore

Forecast Detail	Model Projection (18z Run)
Projected Totals	5–9 inches (Mean Ensemble Forecast)
High-End Potential	12+ inches (if the low tracks 50 miles closer to the coast)
Probability of >6"	~45% (a significant jump from the 12z run)
Start Time	Saturday between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM
Peak Intensity	Sunday between 2:00 AM and 8:00 AM

Model hallucination much?

[Ji]

Looks good, but tempering my excitement based on what [mention=10922]high risk[/mention] said about it lagging behind

Well the midday runs sucked ass

[IronTy]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

lol we are asking ai to tell us about ai models. What a world!

This is a dangerous slippery slope for weather weenies.  

[LordBaltimore]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I believe thats what Euro AIFS and AIGFS do, no? Use AI to adjust raw model outputs?

I don't believe so. AIFS takes Euro analysis members and uses them as input to an ensemble of AI models. AIFS and AIGFS aren't bad really since they're run by met centers. It's the "observation driven" models where you see the most shady verification practices. 

 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Please stop clogging the thread with this shit.

The AI models have been excellent. 

[DDweatherman]

Welp this will be settled fellow weeniers when the maps come out, which who knows when that’ll be. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Well the midday runs sucked ass

But the happy hour runs were a lot better

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, bringmesnow1 said:

Model hallucination much?

It was just for the giggles lol. 

[Jason Es]

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

Really good read from @40/70 Benchmark. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/major-follow-up-potential-looms-next.html

I swear I feel dumber every time I read his writing 

[Climate175]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Please stop clogging the thread with this shit.

I didn't know someone crowned you the poster police lol.

[Maestrobjwa]

55 minutes ago, bncho said:

Perhaps the NW shifts are due to the new data ingested for the 18z suite!

Well then dropsonde away 

[overcautionisbad]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

lol we are asking ai to tell us about ai models. What a world!

Idk, lol. Helped me figure out an old chocolate eclair cake recipe once, so figured I see what it said. Then compare later

[Climate175]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

Idk, lol. Helped me figure out an old chocolate eclair cake recipe once, so figured I see what it said. Then compare later

It said the 06z WeatherNext 2.0 was OTS and it indeed was. Let's see what the actual map says if someone is able to post it later.

[MDstorm]

Seeing the models evolve over the last 24 hours has me haunted by the Boxing  Day storm of 2010.  I was a bit younger then and don’t remember all of the details, but I do remember a snow shield essentially bypassing MD west of the bay as it hit VA, swung east around MD and then swung back to hit areas to the northeast.  Someone please tell me that this is not going to happen with this storm. 

[bncho]

Just now, Climate175 said:

It said the 06z WeatherNext 2.0 was OTS and it indeed was. Let's see what the actual map says if someone is able to post it later.

Give me ~20 minutes. Waiting for somebody in SouthernWX to post it, then I'll share it here.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z HRRR 7 pm Th.compared to 18Z EURO and GFS

 

 

 

[Nomz]

00z NAM is off and running

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

44 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

There is some pretty interesting discussion in the New England forum about this.  I’ve been reading Mets in there since the models lost this yesterday explaining why it would come back.  They seem pretty confident it’s not done trending. 

They have some special pull up there.  Biggest vacuum on the planet.

[WesternFringe]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z NBM

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County?  100:1 ratios?  Lol 

[snowfan]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County?  100:1 ratios?  Lol 

Champagne powder baby.

[psuhoffman]

I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow.  

One observation before tonight's runs....

Need a north trend = good shape

Need a west trend = next

This is because of typical model bias errors.  Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features.  That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours.  So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time.  

Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations.  If anything it's the opposite.  Miller b storms trend east more often than west.  So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours.  

Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow 

[Climate175]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow.  

One observation before tonight's runs....

Need a north trend = good shape

Need a west trend = next

This is because of typical model bias errors.  Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features.  That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours.  So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time.  

Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations.  If anything it's the opposite.  Miller b storms trend east more often than west.  So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours.  

Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow 

Great analysis.

[Nomz]

NAM at h30 looks better than the AIFS (i don't have pivotal+) and UK, and worse than GFS and ICON.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Question that im unclear about:  does the low closing-off tilt the trough negative or vice-versa?

[bncho]

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

"Everything I don't like is an outlier" not great analysis imo

[NorthArlington101]

NAM at h30 looks better than the AIFS (i don't have pivotal+) and UK, and worse than GFS and ICON.

All due respect - what features are you looking at @ hr30 to get you to that conclusion? Seems a bit early.

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am not throwing in the towel until tomorrow.  

One observation before tonight's runs....

Need a north trend = good shape

Need a west trend = next

This is because of typical model bias errors.  Models very commonly are too far south in the medium range with northern stream mid and upper level features.  That H5 low is likely to adjust north some in the final 48 hours.  So if things start to trend towards a solution closer to the GFS, again not necessarily that extreme, but with a miss somewhat to our SOUTH not EAST... we are in the game going into the final 48 because I expect the same bleed north we see 75% of the time.  

Models do NOT, however, have a bias of usually amplifying too slowly in phase situations.  If anything it's the opposite.  Miller b storms trend east more often than west.  So if the guidance converges on the more east idea with a more positively tilted upper low that doesn't close off until 6-12 hours later and we need a west trend... this is dead going into the final 48 hours.  

Again, I will reserve judgement until tomorrow 

Thanks for chiming in.. Was missing your wisdom and insights today