Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: AI model? I don't trust it then. It is the cause of the ram prices Meanwhile, I will glaze euro aifs till I die edit: can we also get a storm banter thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Really good read from @40/70 Benchmark. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/major-follow-up-potential-looms-next.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I would have titled this thread Blizzard of 1899 With Automobiles Added 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: What the hell is this wxnext model?? Google Deepmind AI's latest model. WeatherNext 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Don’t tell @mitchnick but the SREFs look good at the end of the run 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, overcautionisbad said: AI model? I don't trust it then. It is the cause of the ram prices Good idea to not trust it. The verification process for many of these models (especially anything not fed analysis data as input) is extremely suspect almost to the point of being an outright scam, although most cases I think are just incompetence. A lot of their claimed advantage is just removing representation error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, LordBaltimore said: Good idea to not trust it. The verification process for many of these models (especially anything not fed analysis data as input) is extremely suspect almost to the point of being an outright scam, although most cases I think are just incompetence. A lot of their claimed advantage is just removing representation error NAM at 84 hours > AI models. Got it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 https://deepmind.google/science/weathernext/ brought to you by the non-chemists who won the a Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 2024 for using Deep Mind to solve the protein folding problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 After this past storm and with the GFS taking the euro out to the back shed today, we might need to update this photo… 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Not saying it will happen this time, but when is the last time the GFS outperformed most others for a complex winter event? Feb 2013 is the most similar to this one, perhaps (although far from exact obviously). I think late Jan 2022 it was ahead of Euro that we (correctly) would NOT get anything down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Don’t forget every time this winter we make a step forward we take three back 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 WB 0Z NBM 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaleCityDave Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Ji said: Don’t forget every time this winter we make a step forward we take three back There’s the Ji we all know and love. After all the positivity with the last storm I wasn’t sure what to expect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I asked Gemini about the 18z Weathernext 2.0 run. It claimed it has 8-12 for Richmond and 10-14 for DC Saturday night into Sunday morning Claimed a 12 inches to 1 ratio Who knows if that's true lol 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z NBM Wait. 4.3 of snow on 0.10 liquid??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Don’t forget every time this winter we make a step forward we take three back The 18z suite was literally 3 steps forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, overcautionisbad said: I asked Gemini about the 18z Weathernext 2.0 run. It claimed it has 8-12 for Richmojd and 10-14 for DC Saturday night into Sunday morning Who knows if that's true lol There is effectively no way for Gemini to not only have direct and up-to-date information on the Weathernext 2.0, but also to be able to disseminate that information into snowfall ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: After this past storm and with the GFS taking the euro out to the back shed today, we might need to update this photo… Wait a damn second here. 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28 Author Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z NBM Looks good, but tempering my excitement based on what @high risk said about it lagging behind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: NAM at 84 hours > AI models. Got it. Any physical model + postprocessing with same ERA5 dataset would beat anything AI is capable of when trained as a forecasting model. I'm not sure why this isn't done already tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, Cobalt said: There is effectively no way for Gemini to not only have direct and up-to-date information on the Weathernext 2.0, but also to be able to disseminate that information into snowfall ranges. Yeah I figure it doesnt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks good, but tempering my excitement based on what @high risk said about it lagging behind Lagging behind in this case would show less snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, LordBaltimore said: Any physical model + postprocessing with same ERA5 dataset would beat anything AI is capable of when trained as a forecasting model. I'm not sure why this isn't done already tbh I believe thats what Euro AIFS and AIGFS do, no? Use AI to adjust raw model outputs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I vote this one be called the WeatherNext Blizzard of 2026 if it happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Not saying it will happen this time, but when is the last time the GFS outperformed most others for a complex winter event? Feb 2013 is the most similar to this one, perhaps (although far from exact obviously). I think late Jan 2022 it was ahead of Euro that we (correctly) would NOT get anything down here. Gfs did great job during JFM 2014&15. the mid range with fast moving progressive northern stream waves. Euro did well inside of 72 hours but the gfs was the one you wanted on your side in the mid range. That said, the gfs and euro haven't been that far apart with the current threat. Its just one of those setups where a little means a lot on the ground. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: After this past storm and with the GFS taking the euro out to the back shed today, we might need to update this photo… Do this again with a guy in a toque watching a hockey game on his I-phone with score CANADA 5 USA 1 (sorry eh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 LOL, this is what Gemini said when I asked about for Baltimore area regarding 18z WeatherNext (take with a grain of salt): The 18z run of the WeatherNext 2.0 model (Google’s advanced AI weather system) indicates an increasing risk for a significant winter storm in the Baltimore area this weekend, specifically from late Saturday night (Jan 31) through Sunday morning (Feb 1). Compared to earlier runs, the 18z update shows a "sharpening" of the coastal low-pressure system, which has resulted in a notable westward shift in the heavy snow band—bringing the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore, into the primary impact zone. 18z WeatherNext 2.0 Snowfall Forecast for Baltimore Forecast Detail Model Projection (18z Run) Projected Totals 5–9 inches (Mean Ensemble Forecast) High-End Potential 12+ inches (if the low tracks 50 miles closer to the coast) Probability of >6" ~45% (a significant jump from the 12z run) Start Time Saturday between 8:00 PM and 11:00 PM Peak Intensity Sunday between 2:00 AM and 8:00 AM 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: Lagging behind in this case would show less snow. That’s what I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcautionisbad Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Google search claims Gemini has weathernext 2.0, so idk.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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