February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my question is what's stopping this from running inland?

this

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We still have some blocking 

The preceding wave also shifts the boundary further east 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my forecast for the week

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

thank you for that! you motivate me to keep

going. I won't post it here any longer though

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

thank you for that! you motivate me to keep

going. I won't post it here any longer though

The New England forum loves your posts. Maybe it's time to share some with them. 

[Poker2015]

17 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

my forecast for the week

Why are you putting snow amounts for something a week away? Just stick to chance of snow or something.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now 

[hooralph]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

The New England forum loves your posts. Maybe it's time to share some with them. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Meh. He’s doin what he loves. Leave him alone. Even if it is completely insane. 
 

next time just put “chance of snow”

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro looks similar to CMC and is a miss! 

Eps is more amplified than the op. Red flag 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is more amplified than the op. Red flag 

thats why ensembles are important at this range

[coastalplainsnowman]

27 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

I don't mind it.  The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us.

One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this:  It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right?  Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.

[SnowGoose69]

This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building.  Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this.  I think it'll be Thursday before we know much

[snowman19]

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I don't mind it.  The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us.

One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this:  It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right?  Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.

thanks I think you're right that's a typo, it should be Wintry mix

[rclab]

37 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. 

Actually CP …. WG’s efforts bring back TV show memories from my youth. Raul Dahl ‘Way Out’ and even the Outer Limits and they were fun to watch. Stay well, as always…..

[brooklynwx99]

really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

maybe that's why the models have been all over the place this winter

[NEG NAO]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read:
 

can't read it its blocked but probably he said there will be no storm or rain plus he just put a video out a few days ago saying nothing through March 1 -thats why you are posting it ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now 

Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong.

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong.

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now 

Agree, possibly even waiting till 00z Thursday. Have to get more sampling in the next few model runs and the players on the field. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

I don't mind it.  The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us.

One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this:  It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right?  Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way.

Very true, that's why you can't hate the guy.

[MJO812]

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building.  Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this.  I think it'll be Thursday before we know much

Hmmm, sounds like this applies to any potential snow situation?

[the_other_guy]

Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow.

 

Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season.

Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming

[qg_omega]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow.

 

Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season.

Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming

California getting 15 feet this week

[Metasequoia]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

thank you for that! you motivate me to keep

going. I won't post it here any longer though

Post wherever you want. Just know that many on this forum are anonymous (anonymity makes some a bit too blunt) and some get annoyed too easily. Anyone who's not a met or doesn't have a great track record, is naturally going to catch some Hell for posting overly precise forecasts a week out or calling for two feet of snow without decent model support. Sounds like you don't like blunt critiques from triggered people (who does?)... then stick to three day forecasts that are less based on wishcasting.  

[SI Mailman]

23 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Post wherever you want. Just know that many on this forum are anonymous (anonymity makes some a bit too blunt) and some get annoyed too easily. Anyone who's not a met or doesn't have a great track record, is naturally going to catch some Hell for posting overly precise forecasts a week out or calling for two feet of snow without decent model support. Sounds like you don't like blunt critiques from triggered people (who does?)... then stick to three day forecasts that are less based on wishcasting.  

Agreed. I’ll throw out a Facebook post after the 12z runs tomorrow if at least 75% of the models/ensembles are still showing the storm as a “lookout Sunday/Monday for something” without overhyping it. I’d probably throw in daily updates after 12z runs everyday and wouldn’t even throw out a first call on amounts until after Friday night’s 0z runs. If you call for a foot of snow a week out and it ends up being 45 and sunny, then no one will take you or your posts seriously on social media