SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read: 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I don't mind it. The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us. One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this: It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right? Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way. thanks I think you're right that's a typo, it should be Wintry mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 37 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: We all post things that are sometimes useless to the average reader but your percentage is getting a little too high. Actually CP …. WG’s efforts bring back TV show memories from my youth. Raul Dahl ‘Way Out’ and even the Outer Limits and they were fun to watch. Stay well, as always….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 really nice configuration on the AIFS-EPS synoptically... Pacific trough is spiking a ridge over MT, decaying block over SE Canada with confluence, and vort amping underneath the block. one of the better setups we've had recently 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read: maybe that's why the models have been all over the place this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Love him or hate him, DT has a very good point here. This is a very interesting read with facts to back it up. This may be the reason why we are seeing so many completely different solutions and flip flopping run to run with multiple models. We have many weather balloon sites permanently down right now in important areas of the CONUS due to budget cuts. It definitely makes sense. Worth the read: can't read it its blocked but probably he said there will be no storm or rain plus he just put a video out a few days ago saying nothing through March 1 -thats why you are posting it ? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc ensembles show the coastal . Op is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Which is exactly the reason why we need to wait until 0z Wednesday night before we take anything seriously. It’s going to be model mayhem at this range, to be expected. You have models showing a major snowstorm, a blizzard, a near miss and no storm at all. You aren’t going to get anything close to consensus right now Agree, possibly even waiting till 00z Thursday. Have to get more sampling in the next few model runs and the players on the field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I don't mind it. The enthusiasm and the good natured way he takes the criticism is better than a lot of us. One quibble, and happy to be corrected by anyone on this: It's "Wintry" not "Wintery" right? Always bugs me when I see it written the latter way. Very true, that's why you can't hate the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: This one is going to require fairly perfect timing of the western ridge building. Pretty much any delay in that or any unforseen disturbance at this time flattening that ridge will kill this. I think it'll be Thursday before we know much Hmmm, sounds like this applies to any potential snow situation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow. Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season. Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Bozeman today. looks and feels like summer here. sunny and 60. not a flake of snow. Jives with my last few SLC trips. Under an inch for season. Devastating winter out west and a summer water crisis coming California getting 15 feet this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: thank you for that! you motivate me to keep going. I won't post it here any longer though Post wherever you want. Just know that many on this forum are anonymous (anonymity makes some a bit too blunt) and some get annoyed too easily. Anyone who's not a met or doesn't have a great track record, is naturally going to catch some Hell for posting overly precise forecasts a week out or calling for two feet of snow without decent model support. Sounds like you don't like blunt critiques from triggered people (who does?)... then stick to three day forecasts that are less based on wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Post wherever you want. Just know that many on this forum are anonymous (anonymity makes some a bit too blunt) and some get annoyed too easily. Anyone who's not a met or doesn't have a great track record, is naturally going to catch some Hell for posting overly precise forecasts a week out or calling for two feet of snow without decent model support. Sounds like you don't like blunt critiques from triggered people (who does?)... then stick to three day forecasts that are less based on wishcasting. Agreed. I’ll throw out a Facebook post after the 12z runs tomorrow if at least 75% of the models/ensembles are still showing the storm as a “lookout Sunday/Monday for something” without overhyping it. I’d probably throw in daily updates after 12z runs everyday and wouldn’t even throw out a first call on amounts until after Friday night’s 0z runs. If you call for a foot of snow a week out and it ends up being 45 and sunny, then no one will take you or your posts seriously on social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 minutes ago, qg_omega said: California getting 15 feet this week It has been hot and cold there too in terms of snow. but you know that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Agreed. I’ll throw out a Facebook post after the 12z runs tomorrow if at least 75% of the models/ensembles are still showing the storm as a “lookout Sunday/Monday for something” without overhyping it. I’d probably throw in daily updates after 12z runs everyday and wouldn’t even throw out a first call on amounts until after Friday night’s 0z runs. If you call for a foot of snow a week out and it ends up being 45 and sunny, then no one will take you or your posts seriously on social media great points i appreciate it and I will take that advice. Thanks guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, the_other_guy said: It has been hot and cold there too in terms of snow. but you know that Been terrible but now into March April looks good for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here comes the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: Here comes the gfs I was going to say Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run! At least its there. Nice run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Been terrible but now into March April looks good for them too little too late for most ski resorts-was in CO a couple weeks ago it was awful and alot of people canceled their trips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: looks like a 3-6 inch snow event on the GFS, much weaker and southeast of last run! Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NEG NAO said: Too far out to micro manage this storm its still where we want it - its all frozen - not cutting west of us AI Gfs is a big coastal hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The only model I'm watching is the Euro AI 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI Gfs is a big coastal hugger good thing is the water temps are only a few degrees close to 32- I think the AI is overdone if there is no support- but too far out still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I would argue. DT just sucks. He's been wrong so many times and in years where there hasn't been a shut down. Just DT being DT. He is a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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