February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. Was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April.
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10
	18.4	2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22	0
	17.0	1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22	0
	16.0	1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07	0
-	16.0	1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06	0
	15.0	1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23	0
	14.9	2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21	0
	8.5	1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10	0
	8.0	1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30	0
-	8.0	1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29	0
	6.0	1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29	0

 

 

Getting out of school early walking into the house, smelling soup on the stove, “the” TV tuned to the local news, with all the out-in-the-snow reports, news of cancellations, meteorologists in front of awesome maps, possibility of school closed the next day, etc.. and I wonder why still  love the snow..

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Nibor said:

All hail skynet.

The Google Deep Mind has pulled ahead of the National Hurricane Center. 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-model-impressed-during-its-first-hurricane-season/

[wthrmn654]

39 temp dropping already

[wthrmn654]

Mount Holy update, 

Must of been a major/ catastrophic failure of the radar down over 5 days now. 

EQUIPMENT...
The Fort Dix radar (KDIX) remains out of service. Work remains
ongoing with progress obtaining and installing replacement
parts.

[ag3]

We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+.
Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+.
Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20

Yep a nice cutter

[TJW014]

33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Looks like AI to me notice wheels not sitting on the ice properly

40 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

We would love to see a video of you on this...

For the atheists:
https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust

[TJW014]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

For the atheists:
https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust

Some drone footage too:

https://imgur.com/a/DdlU4u6

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Getting out of school early walking into the house, smelling soup on the stove, “the” TV tuned to the local news, with all the out-in-the-snow reports, news of cancellations, meteorologists in front of awesome maps, possibility of school closed the next day, etc.. and I wonder why still  love the snow..

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. 
 

April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	15.8	1915-04-04	0
-	15.8	1915-04-03	0
2	12.8	1982-04-07	0
-	12.8	1982-04-06	0
3	12.0	1924-04-02	0
4	9.5	1854-04-17	0
5	8.0	1850-04-06	0
-	8.0	1850-04-05	0
6	7.0	1916-04-09	0
7	6.0	1862-04-09	0
8	5.5	1896-04-08	0
-	5.5	1896-04-07	0
9	5.2	1938-04-07	0
10	5.0	2018-04-03	0
-	5.0	2018-04-02	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1923	13	0
2	1982	16	0
3	1857	17	0
4	1856	20	0
5	1874	21	0
-	1868	21	0
-	1855	21	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1982	30	0
2	1938	32	0
-	1857	32	0
3	1898	33	0
-	1862	33	0
4	1919	34	0
-	1896	34	0
-	1874	34	0
-	1868	34	0
5	1943	35	0
-	1879	35	0
-	1875	35	0

 

[TriPol]

Dr. No says no again. 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Dr. No says no again. 

Said yes at 0Z - will it change again with updated fresh data ? 0Z runs get the full load of data - interesting that the Canadian has been close to consistent with the phasing and more intense storm for a few days now

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, ag3 said:

We need a good drenching rain storm of 1”+.
Looks like that’s coming after Feb. 18-20

I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll take the under on anything with alot of QPF

if you believe the GFS regarding the upcoming miss then you will have to believe this - 1 inch over the next 16 days total qpf - which will help little

[IrishRob17]

50 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

For the atheists:
https://imgur.com/a/L5eUust

Well played, looks like they deleted their comments LOL. Looks like fun! 

[RU848789]

On 2/9/2026 at 11:36 AM, donsutherland1 said:

 

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill.

Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall. 

 

Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms.  Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April.  

[nycsnow]

Icon south again 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

Fascinating that there is that gap from 3/23-3/31 for >6" storms.  Presumably it's not "real" i.e., there's not enough statistical power in the data (when n's are 1 out of 156 years) to conclude that late March would be less likely than early April to have 6" snowfalls, plus it simply fails the common sense test, since late March is colder than early April.  

I agree. I think it's a statistical artifact, but can't rule out other factors being involved e.g., an increase in baroclinicity in early April that allows for occasional big storms even as the weather is warming. Interestingly enough, one finds a similar dearth of 6" or above daily snowfalls during March 23-31 in Newark where records go back even farther to 1843.

[NEG NAO]

Upton AFD says high amount of uncertainty for next potential storm

AFD from KOKX

[nycsnow]

AIGFS locked in on south hasn’t wavered in days.

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

AIGFS locked in on south hasn’t wavered in days.

neither has its cousin the GFS - Canadian has stayed with the more amped north solution - Euro has displayed both - thats why Upton has maintained a high amount of uncertainty which it should 5 days out 

[Roger Smith]

Regarding the dearth of heavy snowfalls in late March, Caswell's weather diary extends the period back a few more years (to spring 1832) and also samples a different location (Providence) to 1860, it's the same story other than a record of 7.5" on March 24, 1840, all very low record values otherwise in late March, and an extra major snowfall in early April is uncovered, 18.0" fell on Apr 13-14, 1841. From his comments this was also a very severe windstorm (nor'easter of course). 

Toronto's record snowfalls show a less anomalous dropoff when comparing late March and early April, for the period 1843 to present, there are a few rather large falls in the late March interval but some daily records are below the run of those encountered in early April, so a bit of the same signal applies there too. 

[donsutherland1]

42 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Regarding the dearth of heavy snowfalls in late March, Caswell's weather diary extends the period back a few more years (to spring 1832) and also samples a different location (Providence) to 1860, it's the same story other than a record of 7.5" on March 24, 1840, all very low record values otherwise in late March, and an extra major snowfall in early April is uncovered, 18.0" fell on Apr 13-14, 1841. From his comments this was also a very severe windstorm (nor'easter of course). 

Toronto's record snowfalls show a less anomalous dropoff when comparing late March and early April, for the period 1843 to present, there are a few rather large falls in the late March interval but some daily records are below the run of those encountered in early April, so a bit of the same signal applies there too. 

The April 1841 snowstorm was a really big one from parts of the Mid-Atlantic region into New England. Philadelphia received at least 8”. NYC picked up a foot. Some parts of New England saw 20”.

[winterwarlock]

I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER

 

mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March

 

LFG!

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER

 

mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March

 

LFG!

No one cares

[MJO812]

AI euro eps further north 

[MJO812]

Euro eps also north 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

25 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH. I AM DECLARING THIS WINTER OVER

 

mid 50s in my parts next week..brief cold spell last week in February and all systems go for a much needed and much deserved warm March

 

LFG!

Enjoy your time in Richmond. We will all miss you. 

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro eps also north 

0Z runs should be interesting - that northern energy out in the Pacific should begin to get more fully sampled each run.........we hope - closing of weather offices across the country have reduced the number of ballons launched though

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, Dark Star said:

While anything can happen in March, you can get a good read in general of what the rest of winter will be like by around the 2nd week in February.  

It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.

[nycsnow]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI euro eps further north 

Warm no?