February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[Roger Smith]

If you read the historical roundup and noted the heavy snowfall of 17.0" over three days in 1920 (Feb 4-6) adding 0.5" more on 7th for the 17.5" total mentioned, that must have included a load of sleet or freezing rain at times because all three days have over an inch of precip with snowfall values of 5 inches and change for each day ... a total of 4.41" liquid for 17.0" snow. If that liquid had fallen at 10:1 ratios there would have been 44.1 inches, plus the 0.5" on 7th that yielded only 0.02" liquid. (so 4.43" for 17.5", a ratio of just 4:1 for the entire event). 

These are the stats for all three days. The precip never set a daily record although the 5th would have broken the 6th daily record. The middle snowfall of 5.9" was a daily record also. I list the daily records because they all indicated other mixed events.. 

DATE ___ MAX _ MIN ____ PREC _ SNOW _____ Record daily precip

FEB 4 ___ 33 __ 23 _____ 1.70 _____ 5.7 _______ 2.10" 1961 (major snowstorm 11.4"+6.0" 3rd)

FEB 5 ___ 28 __ 24 _____ 1.31 _____ 5.9 _______ 1.43" 2014 (incl 4.0" snow after 8.0" and 1.17" prec on Feb 3rd)

FEB 6 ___ 33 __ 26 _____ 1.40 _____ 5.4 _______ 2.74" 1896 (followed 3.5" snow 3rd-4th, no snow 6th)

_ _ _ _ _ _______________________________________ temp 57F on Feb 6, 1896, subzero eleven days later.

1920

Also on today's date, in 1918 max of 4 and min of -6 ... the 4F reading is the lowest max ever for February and tied second with one other date (Dec 30, 1880) as second lowest max all-time after 2F Dec 30 1917. 

The lowest min for Feb on 9th, 1934 warmed back to 8F on that date, the previous day had a midnight high but was probably subzero by afternoon of 8th. 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

31 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Well sure, the sun is a giant fusion reactor in the form of a glowing ball of plasma - it damn sure’s going to feel warm in unobstructed sunlight  .

That said, February is still a real winter month and I’m picky, not a fan of March and never have been. To me that’s when winter feels over. Let’s see how the next few weeks progress. 

On the Jersey shore I'm sure it does. To those of us to the north of NYC latitude I've always looked at the first two to three weeks of March as just another winter month. After the 20th or so I agree.

[LoboLeader1]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder if upton will follow mt holly and issue an extreme cold watch. Wind advisory also would seem likely 

Extreme Cold Watch

Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

 

 

 

[TriPol]

42 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Extreme Cold Watch

Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed
skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Twenty below possible? That’s not a weather alert, that’s a medical thriller. Frostbite in thirty minutes means I’ll be counting to twenty nine and going back inside. Cancel all outdoor ambition. If anyone needs me, I’ll be wrapped in cashmere, monitoring my extremities like a NASA launch.

[Roger Smith]

I don't care how they sort, to a statistician, the value after two values tied seventh is ninth, not eighth. 

If you are at the Olympics and you come in one place after two skiers who tie seventh, you are ninth, not eighth place. 

More to the point, if you were one behind two tied for second, you would not get a bronze medal, you would finish fourth. Every Canadian knows this because for many, many years we would always say, hey fourth, not too shabby. 

Back to what you were doing ...

[TJW014]

6 hours ago, MANDA said:

Gotta admire them.  Wish I had learned to surf,  that train has left the station.  Nice video though.  

https://x.com/i/status/2019349379715305856

They're warmer in that water than on land. Wetsuit technology has made some big advancements, even over the last 10 years or so. I have a 3/2 made from Yamamoto rubber that will keep me warm in water temps down to the low-mid 50s. Dries in an hour or two vs needing a full day with my old suits. I have a few friends who have made it a few winter seasons in just 4/3s and 5mm boots & gloves. 
It's never too late to get started out in the water!

[TJW014]

Sun feels great. Getting to that point in the year where I don't need to crank the heat on full blast when getting in the car in the afternoon. It's already warm inside.

[psv88]

35 today and lots of snow melting off the panels. Solar production highest since January 24. Its been really bad since then...

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I don't care how they sort, to a statistician, the value after two values tied seventh is ninth, not eighth. 

If you are at the Olympics and you come in one place after two skiers who tie seventh, you are ninth, not eighth place. 

More to the point, if you were one behind two tied for second, you would not get a bronze medal, you would finish fourth. Every Canadian knows this because for many, many years we would always say, hey fourth, not too shabby. 

Back to what you were doing ...

because people there actually pay attention to the winter olympics.....my wife is colombian; never heard of the winter olympics before she came here.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Sun feels great. Getting to that point in the year where I don't need to crank the heat on full blast when getting in the car in the afternoon. It's already warm inside.

yes i'm able to walk outside again, without fear of frostbite but slip and falls are still a threat.

[Roger Smith]

They have a different kind of snow in Colombia, from what I hear.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

On the Jersey shore I'm sure it does. To those of us to the north of NYC latitude I've always looked at the first two to three weeks of March as just another winter month. After the 20th or so I agree.

We can get snow even here in March, I have pics from a few year back a solid coating on like the 28th, and I’m fairly inland to the immediate coast. It’s just a preference thing whether I live here or in upstate Vermont, more tied in with the length of a solar day. My point was Feb is early to call winter, March is more preferential - but I’m not naive to the climate differences over the relative short distances across the northeast and various metros. I didn’t extend my thoughts on March to anyone but myself. 

March is absolutely still winter even down here, especially in the northern pine barrens where overnights remain very cold on radiative cooling nights. Like I said, it’s more an abstraction than empirical as far as what I like / dislike or feel is a winter vibe or not, paramount is dark, short days. I was being tongue in cheek about the sun. 

It’s similar to how the sun starts to ‘look like fall’ in August, nothing beats the dark of December and the feel of looking to the entire winter ahead - that’s more what I meant. 

[Roger Smith]

As there is no discussion thread for cold and snow Friday night into weekend, feel free to use contest thread to discuss details. I have amended the thread title. 

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

 

 

 

To me in the charts above for example, the 39.7 in 1990 is the 9th coldest temperature but the 13th coldest year.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another cold day with highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens.

A strong surge of Arctic air will arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Some areas could pick up a heavier snow squall. Much of the region could see a coating to an inch of snow early Saturday morning. The temperature will rise no higher than the lower 20s in New York City Sunday will be even colder. Temperatures on Sunday will likely top out in the teens in New York City with a low in the single digits. 

The persistent and often severely cold pattern will likely break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +28.05 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.852 today.