It's coming 1/31-2/1

[SACRUS]

 

1/28 12z ICON

 

 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/28 12z ICON

 

 

Buh-bye 

[nycsnow]

Icon is probably the worst way you can start the 12z suite lol this thing is gonna be DOA by 00z

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/28 12z ICON

 

 

Having the trough start with such a positive tilt isn’t helpful either. Although if anything the ridge axis in the west is getting even further west. 

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

by the way, though it was rain, it was a beast of a storm and caused lots of outages here; had to move a 60th birthday party for a friend at the last second because the restaurant lost power; we found a hotel that could accommodate us at the last second. 

Yeah I was out in it as a volunteer firefighter at the time. We were out chasing downed trees and power lines. Then the next night the river flooding started. There was massive runoff in the hills from the big February snowstorms. The only thing that topped it was being out during Sandy. March 2010 is one of my all time favorite storms. The wind and rain were unbelievable. And in hindsight, it was stupid and dangerous for us to be out in both storms. During Sandy a tree narrowly missed our truck and after that we stopped operations until the next day.

[Stormlover74]

Sorry rjay its not coming

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Icon is probably the worst way you can start the 12z suite lol this thing is gonna be DOA by 00z

Got to see what real models have to say-the ICON is pretty bad but agree would have liked to see something better

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sorry rjay its not coming

"was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor "

[Jersey_Snowhole]

After 12z suites time to sign the DNR

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Having the trough start with such a positive tilt isn’t helpful either. Although if anything the ridge axis in the west is getting even further west. 

Anymore positive tilt the storm will head south into the Bahamas.  Was nice to see the 06 euro come west a bit - who knows at this point hope for a light snow with precip shield northwest of where forecast.

[jm1220]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Anymore positive tilt the storm will head south into the Bahamas.  Was nice to see the 06 euro come west a bit - who knows at this point hope for a light snow with precip shield northwest of where forecast.

Some models are kinda trending to bands of snow getting west as the low spins and rots. Better than zippo. 

[deathstar9]

21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Are you referring to March 2010? It was also March, not late January. There’s a lot more cold air to work with. The analogs are based on 500mb similarities. It’s just a tool to compare past events to current setups at 500mb. It doesn’t mean a repeat is likely.

Yes that one, but others as well.  I guess if upper air pattern is only criteria it’s using it makes some sense but the only two on the list that had the southern displacement of the PV and Arctic high deep into the south central states were Feb 1989 and Jan 1996.  
 

If you use those as criteria along with upper air patterns opens up a bunch of other events that were overall more similar.  Admittedly I’m a rank amateur with little meteorological knowledge.

[SACRUS]

Longer range of the RGEM but a better look than the ICON at 500 84H

 

[jm1220]

Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Trough induces like 5 lows to develop too as it gets to the VA/NC capes so it can’t congeal and gets booted east. That might be the model trying to resolve a low center or it might be real-Jan 2022 suffered from a double low dragging everything east. Hopefully by tonight 0z we start to see this turn around, otherwise I think the fat lady’s starting to sing. If this one doesn’t happen I’m confident there will be other threats. 

The problem is every time the models start to make improvements they immediately take a step back

[SACRUS]

1/28 12z Summary Total QPF NYC

 

ICON: -0
GFS:  0.01
GFS Ai AIFS: 0.01
GGEM: 0.2

[nycsnow]

End of the RGEM looked like it would’ve been ok… guess we’ll see when regular GGEM runs

[WeatherGeek2025]

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches

[TriPol]

Maybe a thread shouldn't have been started a week out. Probably jinxed us.

[CentralNJSnowman]

7 minutes ago, deathstar9 said:

Yes that one, but others as well.  I guess if upper air pattern is only criteria it’s using it makes some sense but the only two on the list that had the southern displacement of the PV and Arctic high deep into the south central states were Feb 1989 and Jan 1996.  
 

If you use those as criteria along with upper air patterns opens up a bunch of other events that were overall more similar.  Admittedly I’m a rank amateur with little meteorological knowledge.

I suspect that the way we're using the analogs isn't really well suited to what they're showing

My impression is that the only dates "eligible" to come up as analogs are when there's a strorm.  So what the analogs are showing is not "What are the chances of a big storm?" but rather "Of the past big storms, which ones most resembled the current situation?".  That means that it's ALWAYS going to come up with a pretty juicy set of analogs, even in situations where we're unlikely to get much of anything.

If we want to use the analogs to forecast likelihood of a big storm, we need a universe of potential analog dates that includes everything, including all the days that ended up "blue skies and sunny everywhere".  Then if we had a number of big storms showing up in the top ten analog dates, we'd know there's a good chance of something substantial.

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS loading a bunch of QPF...

[CentralNJSnowman]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend in back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches

 

NIcely illustrated and this is the main thing that's giving me some hope

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Maybe a thread shouldn't have been started a week out. Probably jinxed us.

This thread vs 34 million residents praying for a miss and timing a phase just right the headwinds.  

[NEG NAO]

Just now, TriPol said:

Maybe a thread shouldn't have been started a week out. Probably jinxed us.

I don't know why some folks think this is going to be set in stone after todays model runs - review the AFD's posted from Don for the Boxing Day storm less then 3 days in advance of the onset of precip

[TJW014]

These things always tick NW last second. The NW trend has been the theme this winter too.

I really don't think we're going to get a good idea until we get within reliable mesoscale range (<60h) 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches

The GFS going the other wast to meet in the middle at some point.

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Last 5 runs of the Euro. Oldest top, new 06z bottom. to me screams trend is back and i'm back on the train. I think we go back to at least a 6-12 inches

I don’t understand why people are saying it’s gone if this is the trend 

[WeatherGeek2025]

still 4 days out

[jm1220]

Just now, TJW014 said:

These things always tick NW last second. The NW trend has bee the theme this winter too.

I really don't think we're going to get a good idea until we get within reliable mesoscale range (<60h) 

If the overall setup doesn’t allow for a NW trend it won’t. Last winter it sure didn’t help with all the suppressed crap we saw. Not saying this one won’t but if the setup is that it closes off and occludes early, 4 lows develop off Cape Hatteras and it’s too positive tilt, it can only trend N so far. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

can someone do a PBP ?