Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nor is op euro.  Gfs at 0Z seems alone.  But it’s pretty early still so we stay the course.  I accidentally booked my car at RSW for Monday evening vs our scheduled arrival Sunday.  I told my wife it’s easier to leave it be until we’re sure we’re getting out Sunday.

Its 125 miles west of 12z

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z EPS pretty close to 18z run

[78Blizzard]

EPS followed the Euro with a marked improvement to the NW.  One more run like that and much of E MA will be sharing the cape's good stuff.

 

I was comparing to 12z.

[tiger_deF]

28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Any mention of the 00z ICON-EPS?

solid hit over eastern areas.

Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model 

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model 

 

Rule number one of weenie forecasting:  Ride the model that provides snow. 

Rule number two of weenie forecasting:  Toss anything that doesn't.

Rule number three of weenie forecasting:  Say "these always come north/south/east/west" (whichever correction says snow.

[moneypitmike]

BOX tosses weenies--at least for SE areas.

 

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Blustery and not as cool with lows 10 to 15. Temperature rising into the lower 20s after midnight.

 

Sunday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Windy with highs around 30.

 

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Windy with lows around 20.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

BOX tosses weenies--at least for SE areas.

 

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Blustery and not as cool with lows 10 to 15. Temperature rising into the lower 20s after midnight.

 

Sunday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Windy with highs around 30.

 

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Windy with lows around 20.

New Pit 1 might not be so bad after all! 

[NeonPeon]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Rule number one of weenie forecasting:  Ride the model that provides snow. 

Rule number two of weenie forecasting:  Toss anything that doesn't.

Rule number three of weenie forecasting:  Say "these always come north/south/east/west" (whichever correction says snow.

 

You forgot rule four:

If I'm in an area less likely to be affected, there is no storm for anyone.

[Henry's Weather]

14 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Tonight I think it’s full OTS on operationals but ensembles only get marginally worse. Tomorrow night, thinfs will start to tick back

All part of my plan…

[ineedsnow]

GFS OTS but what is that piece of energy coming in from Quebec.. its looks like it originated from the North Atlantic

[Roger Smith]

Greenland Air Force? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If this ends up scraping, the GFS needs to be retired, that would be 4 medium range busts/caves in a row.  Still have 84-96 hours to get it 75 miles west for most of us though so we track

[CoastalWx]

Meh trends overnight. Still have a few cycles though.

[MJO812]

Euro is further west

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro is further west

Ya looks a good amount better

[ineedsnow]

[MJO812]

Really nice hit for the Cape on Euro

[mahk_webstah]

It is pretty clear for me after the overnight runs that we are not in the game up here.  I still think though, because this will get northerly component and not just slide east that the eastern parts particularly of southern New England are still going to have a decent snowstorm and I think it’ll trend in that direction. Best I can hope for us maybe 2 to 4 inches if lucky. Bummer because it’s fun to get back to back big storms, but it’ll probably snow again in the next 10 days.

[JKEisMan]

This thing is causing model mayhem, so much flip flopping.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Damn high stakes for ENE .. Flip flopping continues

ENE - equal odds for either:

1. Major hit

2. light to moderate blow

3. Scrape miss

West of River - 50% miss/scrape 30% light to mod hit 20% major hit 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is snowy 

[CoastalWx]

6z euro AI out to sea. She gone.

[dendrite]

lol…that CMC low looked tropical forming in convection over the gulf stream. 

100kt at 925

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI out to sea. She gone.

Not for you

[mahk_webstah]

We don’t have a February thread and we probably should. There are I’m sure other dates of interest for early February. I can start it but it’s not like I have any meteorological knowledge to add.  But I’ll do it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Wonky Euro track , Bombs and stalls off Hatteras, goes ENE then curls back in .. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Not for you

50/50. Don’t like seeing euro AI pretty much a whiff. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

50/50. Don’t like seeing euro AI pretty much a whiff. 

6z Euro jeus cristi Scooter where ya gonna put the snow 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

50/50. Don’t like seeing euro AI pretty much a whiff. 

50/50 it’s pretty good when it comes to intense coastal storms. But are you becoming one of these AI tech icons? Don’t forget the rest of us back here in the real world where people live not robots.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI out to sea. She gone.

You said that about the last storm and then look.