Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Nor is op euro.  Gfs at 0Z seems alone.  But it’s pretty early still so we stay the course.  I accidentally booked my car at RSW for Monday evening vs our scheduled arrival Sunday.  I told my wife it’s easier to leave it be until we’re sure we’re getting out Sunday.

Its 125 miles west of 12z

[Baroclinic Zone]

00z EPS pretty close to 18z run

[78Blizzard]

EPS followed the Euro with a marked improvement to the NW.  One more run like that and much of E MA will be sharing the cape's good stuff.

 

I was comparing to 12z.

[tiger_deF]

28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Any mention of the 00z ICON-EPS?

solid hit over eastern areas.

Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model 

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Soon we'll be reduced to tracking westward movements on the JMA model 

 

Rule number one of weenie forecasting:  Ride the model that provides snow. 

Rule number two of weenie forecasting:  Toss anything that doesn't.

Rule number three of weenie forecasting:  Say "these always come north/south/east/west" (whichever correction says snow.

[moneypitmike]

BOX tosses weenies--at least for SE areas.

 

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Blustery and not as cool with lows 10 to 15. Temperature rising into the lower 20s after midnight.

 

Sunday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Windy with highs around 30.

 

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Windy with lows around 20.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

BOX tosses weenies--at least for SE areas.

 

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Blustery and not as cool with lows 10 to 15. Temperature rising into the lower 20s after midnight.

 

Sunday

Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Windy with highs around 30.

 

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Windy with lows around 20.

New Pit 1 might not be so bad after all! 

[NeonPeon]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

Rule number one of weenie forecasting:  Ride the model that provides snow. 

Rule number two of weenie forecasting:  Toss anything that doesn't.

Rule number three of weenie forecasting:  Say "these always come north/south/east/west" (whichever correction says snow.

 

You forgot rule four:

If I'm in an area less likely to be affected, there is no storm for anyone.

[Henry's Weather]

14 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Tonight I think it’s full OTS on operationals but ensembles only get marginally worse. Tomorrow night, thinfs will start to tick back

All part of my plan…

[ineedsnow]

GFS OTS but what is that piece of energy coming in from Quebec.. its looks like it originated from the North Atlantic

[Roger Smith]

Greenland Air Force? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

If this ends up scraping, the GFS needs to be retired, that would be 4 medium range busts/caves in a row.  Still have 84-96 hours to get it 75 miles west for most of us though so we track

[CoastalWx]

Meh trends overnight. Still have a few cycles though.

[MJO812]

Euro is further west

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro is further west

Ya looks a good amount better

[ineedsnow]

[MJO812]

Really nice hit for the Cape on Euro

[mahk_webstah]

It is pretty clear for me after the overnight runs that we are not in the game up here.  I still think though, because this will get northerly component and not just slide east that the eastern parts particularly of southern New England are still going to have a decent snowstorm and I think it’ll trend in that direction. Best I can hope for us maybe 2 to 4 inches if lucky. Bummer because it’s fun to get back to back big storms, but it’ll probably snow again in the next 10 days.

[JKEisMan]

This thing is causing model mayhem, so much flip flopping.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Damn high stakes for ENE .. Flip flopping continues

ENE - equal odds for either:

1. Major hit

2. light to moderate blow

3. Scrape miss

West of River - 50% miss/scrape 30% light to mod hit 20% major hit