Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon is Igone 

ICON EPS not gone 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

That map you showed Steve did not inspire confidence lol

 

I'm fine with Miller A. They’re preferable to me because they’re simple. I was agreeing with not wanting occlusion too soon, which is a risk here. More than OTS imo.

That was the virga storm here..snowed for hrs and hrs aloft here, but never reached the ground. Lost a ton of precip to dry air inland here. Southeast CT crushed it cuz they saturated super quick and snowed to beat the band. 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Out west looks similar - but the trough is positive tilt this time out - I posted approx the same time frames on the current 06z GFS 500 and the verified '96 500 vort.  

96 had good ridging out ahead of it. Here we have a PV lobe dropping south of us suppressing the flow and the vort digs and amplifies last minute over the Carolinas. It tries late to pump some ridging back our way, but there’s less wiggle room for pulling something off.

But we’re still at the point where we can see significant changes at H5 that could drastically change the outcome so everything is still on the table. 

[ineedsnow]

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

That doesn't look great.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That doesn't look great.

2 different camps

Looks decent 

[Typhoon Tip]

The ICON is not a dependable model even at this range, from my own experience.

That said ... the 12z rendition of the wholesale evolution (operational) was in fact a marked improvement over the 00z. 

I don't pay enough attention to the off hour runs of this model - need more background on how it works/data feeds/initialization ...everything, which is not something I've been inclined to research given to the unstable performance I've noticed at anything beyond 60 or hours.  But as as far as the former, there's time and space for trending.

[Kitz Craver]

Even the west leaning members on ICON ENS wouldn’t get it done. I’m starting to waver on this threat. 

[WinterWolf]

IMO the OTS idea is the bigger concern…she wants to slide SE at the moment. Obviously that could change being where we are in lead time…but the vast bulk of modeling today is SE currently.  

[Damage In Tolland]

I’m not feeling very good about a direct hit 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Even the west leaning members on ICON ENS wouldn’t get it done. I’m starting to waver on this threat. 

Nah, these west 'leaning' members in this depiction would rage from D.C. to BOS

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Even the west leaning members on ICON ENS wouldn’t get it done. I’m starting to waver on this threat. 

Yeah, you’ll want to see significant trends from multiple models by tomorrow night to instill any confidence of this being favorable for much of SNE.

[Typhoon Tip]

people don't see a very obvious and direct hit, they get emotionally downtrodden, then ... interpret the models according to that emotive response.

check.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m not feeling very good about a direct hit 

I am. Not worried about OTS at all.

[weatherwiz]

I'm kind of glad models are south and east at this point. Means we don't have to be bombarded with snow maps every 5 seconds and then every 3 seconds when you get the Kuchera showing 40" 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm kind of glad models are south and east at this point. Means we don't have to be bombarded with snow maps every 5 seconds and then every 3 seconds when you get the Kuchera showing 40" 

I am, too, but for different reason.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am. Not worried about OTS at all.

I don’t think a miss is an option either. Just don’t see the classic pattern for us to get the belly of the beast . I felt much better about this past Storm delivering. It’s gonna snow Sunday/ Monday for sure . Things still evolving absolutely 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

people don't see a very obvious and direct hit, they get emotionally downtrodden, then ... interpret the models according to that emotive response.

check.

This is true, I also think, believe it or not, there is some snow fatigue and people are hedging emotionally at the thought of another blockbuster and dealing with it. For the record I’m not in that camp. I want a dystopian, ozone sniffer. 

[cleetussnow]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

96 had good ridging out ahead of it. Here we have a PV lobe dropping south of us suppressing the flow and the vort digs and amplifies last minute over the Carolinas. It tries late to pump some ridging back our way, but there’s less wiggle room for pulling something off.

But we’re still at the point where we can see significant changes at H5 that could drastically change the outcome so everything is still on the table. 

For us amateurs, I think posting what the 'perfect' scenario is against the current setup really helps illustrate what it takes from here.  I'm looking for Jan 4 2018 as a possible analog

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not crazy about how far to the south it digs as presently depicted.

Could be better 

 

But..

I’m seeing the risk is much greater that it moves north from that depiction, given the current forecast progression of MJO and -NAO. 

[George001]

AI gfs is more amplified

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS looks to be digging for oil again

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Gfs AI is a tick nw with a glancing blow. I bet goofus does the same. 

[CCHurricane]

AI-GFS says game on for eastern areas...

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs AI is a tick nw with a glancing blow. I bet goofus does the same. 

Some weird dual low/barbell slingshot action going on with that. A lot to be sorted out still.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS looks to be digging for oil again

Yep coming west

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gfs AI is a tick nw with a glancing blow. I bet goofus does the same. 

Tell me where you live without telling me where you live....

1 minute ago, CCHurricane said:

AI-GFS says game on for eastern areas...

 

[dendrite]

Yeah it seems to be ampifying a tick west this run which should give us more time to pump the downstream ridging a little more. It’s still digging pretty far south though.

[SouthCoastMA]

A 968mb low SE of the benchmark would obliterate SE areas. Long way to go with this one. 

ICON was a whiff but probably an improvement over 6z. 

[ineedsnow]

GFS trending