The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Question, I thought Kuchera maps always specified 10:1 ratios. The last day or so, the K Maps I’ve seen posted, don’t say 10:1. Am I to assume they are 10:1?

Kuchera maps are different from 10:1 maps. 

[QC_Halo]

Thanks,

I just always assumed it always used 10:1, because that’s what I’ve usually seen. Why doesnt it specify the ratio it’s assuming on all the maps?

[lilj4425]

Well, it’s almost go time. Good luck to all of you and may the odds forever be in your favor. Welcome to the Hunger Games.

[NEGA_Dawg]

Im in the 4-7" zone according to NWS latest statement. See how it plays out.

[Regan]

RAH at just before 2 am dropped the accumulation totals quite a bit and…

 

now models are coming in quite nice for the triangle. 

[timnc910]

6z Euro

[Regan]

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t we past the euro at this point? A met said late last night time to move on. Not being snarky. But the latest short range are quite different. 

[UpstateSCBud]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t we past the euro at this point? A met said late last night time to move on. Not being snarky. But the latest short range are quite different. 

I think it’s still pretty good at 24 hours. This run may be the last we really need to consider though

[Solution Man]

Use the short range now, it picks up better on banding. You may ask why am I in here. I have to bring my wife to Duke for treatment this Monday, but will leave today and stay in Raleigh with friends.

[WXNewton]

Euro,GFS,icon,nam, RRFS 6z 

[sarcean]

28 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Well, it’s almost go time. Good luck to all of you and may the odds forever be in your favor. Welcome to the Hunger Games.

We are about 15 hours until go time but doubt much changes besides where the sweet spots will be and deform bands / dry spots happen 

[Upstate Tiger]

Wonder how the short range models do sniffing out the meso low.  GSP still confident this will develop and enhance rates in upstate and NC Piedmont. 

[ncforecaster89]

4 minutes ago, Regan said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t we past the euro at this point? A met said late last night time to move on. Not being snarky. But the latest short range are quite different. 

The mesoscale (short range) models are the primary source at this point.  However, the globals still have value in helping determining the track of the coastal low.  

[frazdaddy]

34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Kuchera maps are different from 10:1 maps. 

You know it’s on when this man shows up. Good to see you sir. 

[DTP]

39 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Thanks,

I just always assumed it always used 10:1, because that’s what I’ve usually seen. Why doesnt it specify the ratio it’s assuming on all the maps?

Static v dynamic modeling- dynamic takes into account the atmospheric moisture in any given area within the map, which can have vastly different ratios based on temperature,  upper and lower level dynamics, etc.  10:1 simply normalizes the data set for all locations within the map having equal atmospheric moisture content.

Think about being at the top of Beech Mtn during a hypothetical "normal" snowfall event, v downtown Hickory.  Both locations are getting snow, but the air temp at the top of Beech is 15 F, and the air temp in Hickory is 29 F.  10:1 basis assumes the snow water equiv is equal at both locations (we all know it is not); Kuchera takes the temperature differential and other factors into account, and adjusts on that basis- the term "basis" simply means normalizing the data set to provide context based on given parameters.....10:1 (y)*(amt of modeled precip) solves for x (total snowfall)

Kuchera has more variables factored in to reflect the dynamic when solving for x- in English- there can be many different ratios within the same given map

[buckeyefan1]

38 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Kuchera maps are different from 10:1 maps. 

Indeed my friend and I love it when you drop in

[Spidyr2k]

Wondering when the last time all of NC was under a WSW?  I don't remember it. 

[PackGrad05]

WRAL sticking with 3-6" for central NC

RAH also sticking with 3-7" for central NC.  

Matches the EURO.  

Latest 06Z HRRR shows 10" for Wake County

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL sticking with 3-6" for central NC

RAH also sticking with 3-7" for central NC.  

Matches the EURO.  

Latest 06Z HRRR shows 10" for Wake County

0z EURO was a banger 6z scaled back. All CAMs trended well for triangle. As others have said, it’s almost go time. Let’s get a forum wide smack down 

[lilj4425]

[Regan]

The latest short range runs look good. Hope it means something. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Decent returns in SW Virginia. @BornAgain13 any ground truth or just virga? 

[wake4est]

11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL sticking with 3-6" for central NC

RAH also sticking with 3-7" for central NC.  

Matches the EURO.  

Latest 06Z HRRR shows 10" for Wake County

I would assume if short range stays consistent today they would boh nudge things to correct for that. 

[ADB83]

Triad looks like we will get a nice snow. Not a crazy amount, but we have a decent chance to break our consecutive days in a row streak without a 4inch snowfall. For Greensboro it’s been 2607 days. So that’s nice! Hope ENC and the upstate score big! Good luck, everyone!


.

[Regan]

I would hope, but idk. I was sad to see RAH caved to the dry slot idea much like Wrals totals. Hoping the short range today keeps going and they have to pay attention or you’d think. 

[bigjohndc]

15 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

WRAL sticking with 3-6" for central NC

RAH also sticking with 3-7" for central NC.  

Matches the EURO.  

Latest 06Z HRRR shows 10" for Wake County

To be fair to RAH all their headlines include language for potential significant amounts above forecast amount.

[donsutherland1]

58 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

You know it’s on when this man shows up. Good to see you sir. 

Good luck with the snow. I hope it meets or exceeds your expectations.

[Blue Ridge]

7 minutes ago, Regan said:

I would hope, but idk. I was sad to see RAH caved to the dry slot idea much like Wrals totals. Hoping the short range today keeps going and they have to pay attention or you’d think. 

Don’t think of it as caving, think of it as hedging. They make the upside potential clear in their writings. 

[CentralNC]

8 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Triad looks like we will get a nice snow. Not a crazy amount, but we have a decent chance to break our consecutive days in a row streak without a 4inch snowfall. For Greensboro it’s been 2607 days. So that’s nice! Hope ENC and the upstate score big! Good luck, everyone!


.

Yeah I think 3-5 in Triad is reasonable. If it's gonna bust, I think it busts on the low side

[Regan]

6 minutes ago, bigjohndc said:

To be fair to RAH all their headlines include language for potential significant amounts above forecast amount.

Except that few people I know read the disco. I’d imagine that’s a good representation of much of the public. They just look at colors and numbers and see they went from 9 to 7 (low end 1-2 and hi 12). That high end temp does suggest the possibility, but the 10% there would discount that from a lot of people’s grasp on the situation.