psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, bncho said: why would you mention my username So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow 2 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, bncho said: why would you mention my username Spunky for a newbie to open a thread; but we need some new energy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March. The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC Yep, and on the same Euro run 5 days later there are these temp anomalies. 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern. @CAPE Storm is back?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @CAPE Storm is back?? I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms. But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/11/2026 at 1:23 AM, stormtracker said: Hard to get vested in this with models literally changing every other run. I’d pay for 5 inches of snow rn I have been saying this for years now. The public should not see a model that goes out more than 5 days. It would help the mental health of a lot of people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March. The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March The EURO weeklies are playing catch-up with the GEFS ext. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft. Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though lol I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA eta: +EPO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, stormy said: The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft. Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal. So far it held overnight for the Catoctins. As of now it looks like at about 1000' is the flip. I want to get up on the highest peak i can. Salamander Rock is cool. I might go out to Cunningham Falls and hike to the peak behind the closed summer camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 lol I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA eta: +EPO!I am so tired of hearing about the -PNA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: I am so tired of hearing about the -PNA. The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, CAPE said: The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month. I'll gamble with a -PNA. We need some damn moisture! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: @CAPE Storm is back?? *Looks for that Lucy Charlie Brown gif where she pulls the football away at the last second* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC Weather channel hasn’t gotten the memo, it has DC at 50 on the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. The same euro has the warmup canceled out by another cold shot a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol. I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails. Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol. 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails. 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition. I just don't want to hit 60° this month. It can start March 1st, but my Co-Op site is just 16 days away from having it's first winter in a decade with no 60°+ readings. This is a meaningless stat that only matters to me, but it's important to my sanity for some reason. Just give me this. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I just don't want to hit 60° this month. It can start March 1st, but my Co-Op site is just 16 days away from having it's first winter in a decade with no 60°+ readings. This is a meaningless stat that only matters to me, but it's important to my sanity for some reason. Just give me this. Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, CAPE said: Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point. At least baseball season is starting, something to look forward to. Love the Bassitt signing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, ravensrule said: At least baseball season is starting, something to look forward to. Love the Bassitt signing. They needed to sign another starter. Was worried Elias was going to pull the same old shit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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