February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

why would you mention my username

So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow 

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

why would you mention my username

Spunky for a newbie to open a thread; but we need some new energy!!!!

[paulythegun]

All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March.  The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. 

MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Yep, and on the same Euro run 5 days later there are these temp anomalies. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

@CAPE Storm is back??

[CAPE]

58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@CAPE Storm is back??

I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.

But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though

[Interstate]

On 2/11/2026 at 1:23 AM, stormtracker said:

Hard to get vested in this with models literally changing every other run. I’d pay for 5 inches of snow rn

I have been saying this for years now. The public should not see a model that goes out more than 5 days.  It would help the mental health of a lot of people.

[stormy]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March.  The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. 

MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

The EURO weeklies are playing catch-up with the GEFS ext.

[stormy]

The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft.

Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though

lol

I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA

eta: +EPO!

[dailylurker]

9 minutes ago, stormy said:

The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft.

Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal.

So far it held overnight for the Catoctins. As of now it looks like at about 1000' is the flip. I want to get up on the highest peak i can. Salamander Rock is cool. I might go out to Cunningham Falls and hike to the peak behind the closed summer camp. 

[anotherman]

lol
I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA
eta: +EPO!

I am so tired of hearing about the -PNA.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I am so tired of hearing about the -PNA.

The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month.

[bncho]

Just now, CAPE said:

The WPO is forecast to be significantly negative for the last week of the month. The advertised orientation of the ridge can help offset the -PNA some, and the EPO is forecast to be only slightly positive before rising some the last few days of the month. AO and NAO look to be negative, but not severely. If all this verifies then the only 'unfavorable' index is the PNA, which is forecast to trend less negative from the 20th through the end of the month.

I'll gamble with a -PNA. We need some damn moisture!

[Eskimo Joe]

Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. 

[adelphi_sky]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@CAPE Storm is back??

*Looks for that Lucy Charlie Brown gif where she pulls the football away at the last second* 

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Weather channel hasn’t gotten the memo, it has DC at 50 on the 19th.

[JenkinsJinkies]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. 

The same euro has the warmup canceled out by another cold shot a week later.

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Months of work to get a normal to below normal winter and we're could lose it in the last two weeks of winter. 

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails.

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails.

Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I wouldn't care if we had gotten some snow on top of the glacier, but most of that cold was wasted, other than keeping snow/ice cover otg for an extended period. At least our dry streak continues lol.

 

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I think they mean the temp anomaly. Though I don’t think next weeks warmup would be enough to cancel out the whole 3 month period. February maybe if the cold shot the week after fails.

 

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I didn't read his post correctly. That sort of thing doesn't really interest me, but it probably wont if the forecast pattern comes to fruition.

I just don't want to hit 60° this month. It can start March 1st, but my Co-Op site is just 16 days away from having it's first winter in a decade with no 60°+ readings. This is a meaningless stat that only matters to me, but it's important to my sanity for some reason. Just give me this.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

I just don't want to hit 60° this month. It can start March 1st, but my Co-Op site is just 16 days away from having it's first winter in a decade with no 60°+ readings. This is a meaningless stat that only matters to me, but it's important to my sanity for some reason. Just give me this.  

Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point.

[ravensrule]

Just now, CAPE said:

Might make a run at 60 mid next week. Mid 50s look likely at this point.

At least baseball season is starting, something to look forward to. Love the Bassitt signing. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

At least baseball season is starting, something to look forward to. Love the Bassitt signing. 

They needed to sign another starter. Was worried Elias was going to pull the same old shit.