February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

why would you mention my username

So we know who to sacrifice when it doesn’t snow 

[Weather Will]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

why would you mention my username

Spunky for a newbie to open a thread; but we need some new energy!!!!

[paulythegun]

All of the models are too warm with their surface temps for this weekend..and here's why: Their snow cover estimates are too aggressive with melting. They're assuming typical snow density and compaction. They can't handle the slow pace of north facing snowcrete melt-off. Please hit the hot dog emoji

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March.  The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. 

MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

[Terpeast]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Can’t say I’m surprised. Feb-Mar usually torches during a Nina, with a few exceptions. In fact this was baked into my winter outlook. 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Euro continues to show a shot at 60s Feb 19-20.. Sounding is 67F around DC

Yep, and on the same Euro run 5 days later there are these temp anomalies. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS pops a fantasy storm Day 10. All I take that to mean is it’s not a shutout pattern.

@CAPE Storm is back??

[CAPE]

58 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@CAPE Storm is back??

I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.

[aldie 22]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I've been posting about that period in the other thread. The 'good' pattern has been getting delayed a bit but beyond the 20th has been looking more favorable on the ens means, with hints of storms.

But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though

[Interstate]

On 2/11/2026 at 1:23 AM, stormtracker said:

Hard to get vested in this with models literally changing every other run. I’d pay for 5 inches of snow rn

I have been saying this for years now. The public should not see a model that goes out more than 5 days.  It would help the mental health of a lot of people.

[stormy]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Man does the long range look bad on long range models.. +EPO has the chance of making it warmer than average the last week of Feb possibly into early March.  The Euro weeklies are warm through March 15th. 

MJO going through Phases 3-6 is a warm composite in late Feb/early March

The EURO weeklies are playing catch-up with the GEFS ext.

[stormy]

The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft.

Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

But Chuck says July and August are looking warm though

lol

I don't think he likes the last week of Feb for cold. -PNA

eta: +EPO!