Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I was just going to mention that, but look how it changed since 0z. How can it be considered, let alone trusted, for more than 6 hours?Didn’t even look at surface lol. Cape told me to stop looking at surface maps but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Looking ahead toward the late week into weekend period, additional perturbations in the flow keep low-end probabilities (15 to 25 percent) for precipitation in the forecast. As temperatures cool through the week, some of this would be comprised of a rain/snow mix. The overall surface pattern does show high pressure building in from the Great Lakes while a wavy frontal zone arcs along the southern U.S. Uncertainty is unusually high toward the end of the period given the complexities of the flow to resolve. Deterministic models continue to vary wildly from run to run, but this is not surprising at this point. It does remain a period to monitor ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 This thread got weird. Chuck said it couldn’t snow this week because the pacific pattern would make it too warm. The problem we have right now is a combination of guidance trending towards a weaker wave that gets absorbed by the approaching larger scale pacific trough and a more suppressive Atlantic which squashes any weak energy that ejects ahead. If anything it’s the opposite problem of what Chuck was worried about. If that Atlantic low backed off some and a healthier wave ejects it looks cold enough until Monday. After that it starts getting problematic fast but the window over PD weekend is there IF a strong enough wave ejects and right now it looks like it might not Mitch we can’t trust anything bit if you want there to be a shot you want good solutions snowing up within the scope of all the guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. Will wait until 84 hours out to be certain, but I’m starting to think that we’ve lost this one. Maybe it’ll morph into a minor event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Will wait until 84 hours out to be certain, but I’m starting to think that we’ve lost this one. Maybe it’ll morph into a minor event? Id lean against it also, But I never right it was likely so maybe I’ve gone from giving it a 40% to a 20% chance. But the adjustment we need is still minor, a stronger pacific wave ejecting. How many times did we have a snow threat at 150 Hours and that trend hurt us by causing a more amped wave to trend north? It happens all the damn time, when we don’t want it to! Why can’t I happen when We need it? Because we are living in a simulation programmed by someone who was hurt in a past life my a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole purpose of this simulation is to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma on DC snow lovers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point. Yes it did. I was debating whether to say that or wait another run to see If it’s a blip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Funny thing is, the Gfs, GfsAI, and Gefs bring out a stronger system and have it pass to our west. Geps, on the other hand, is what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Funny thing is, the Gfs, GfsAI, and Gefs bring out a stronger system and have it pass to our west. Geps, on the other hand, is what we want. GFS is on Chucks team. It’s weaker with the flow and allows the pacific wave to gain too much latitude before transferring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 WPC had quite the wetter outlook - I am certain it was based on earlier model runs. Just sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Man, Icon with the hammer, 6-10 region wide with more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Man, Icon with the hammer, 6-10 region wide with more to come It's worth a pic. Lol 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It's worth a pic. Lol Let's go! Time for a nice reversal today! Nice way to start out the 12z suite 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8 Author Share Posted February 8 WB 12Z ICON and not done!!!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 lol. Windshield wiping baby! You gotta love it. The Ji pendulum is gonna be WILD in next 12 hours. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 ICON is tasty. Maybe it can win once. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol. Windshield wiping baby! You gotta love it. The Ji pendulum is gonna be WILD in next 12 hours. I believe that is an official index, like the NAO/AO/PNA/WPO/MJO!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 lol at the icon throwing us a bone out of all models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 29 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Let's go! Time for a nice reversal today! Nice way to start out the 12z suite Let’s see if GFS and Euro do anything similar lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gfs taking the right steps 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Let’s see if GFS and Euro do anything similar lol. GFS actually looks pretty similar to the icon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, TSSN+ said: Gfs taking the right steps Already a noticeable difference seen between the 06z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Are we back? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Snowing in dc metro at 7am Sunday per gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Guys? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I’m liking where this is heading… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Guys? GFS and ICON at range is an awesome combo. Just have to hope they both got some good news in the 12z data. Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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