February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Ji]

I was just going to mention that, but look how it changed since 0z. How can it be considered, let alone trusted, for more than 6 hours?

Didn’t even look at surface lol. Cape told me to stop looking at surface maps but wow

[clueless]

Looking ahead toward the late week into weekend period, additional
perturbations in the flow keep low-end probabilities (15 to 25
percent) for precipitation in the forecast. As temperatures cool
through the week, some of this would be comprised of a rain/snow
mix. The overall surface pattern does show high pressure building in
from the Great Lakes while a wavy frontal zone arcs along the
southern U.S. Uncertainty is unusually high toward the end of the
period given the complexities of the flow to resolve. Deterministic
models continue to vary wildly from run to run, but this is not
surprising at this point. It does remain a period to monitor
ahead.

[psuhoffman]

This thread got weird.

Chuck said it couldn’t snow this week because the pacific pattern would make it too warm.  The problem we have right now is a combination of guidance trending towards a weaker wave that gets absorbed by the approaching larger scale pacific trough and a more suppressive Atlantic which squashes any weak energy that ejects ahead.
 

If anything it’s the opposite problem of what Chuck was worried about.  If that Atlantic low backed off some and a healthier wave ejects it looks cold enough until Monday. After that it starts getting problematic fast but the window over PD weekend is there IF a strong enough wave ejects and right now it looks like it might not  

Mitch we can’t trust anything bit if you want there to be a shot you want good solutions snowing up within the scope of all the guidance. 
 

[psuhoffman]

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. 

Will wait until 84 hours out to be certain, but I’m starting to think that we’ve lost this one. Maybe it’ll morph into a minor event?

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger. 

In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Will wait until 84 hours out to be certain, but I’m starting to think that we’ve lost this one. Maybe it’ll morph into a minor event?

Id lean against it also, But I never right it was likely so maybe I’ve gone from giving it a 40% to a 20% chance. But the adjustment we need is still minor, a stronger pacific wave ejecting. How many times did we have a snow threat at 150 Hours and that trend hurt us by causing a more amped wave to trend north?  It happens all the damn time, when we don’t want it to!  Why can’t I happen when We need it? 
 

Because we are living in a simulation programmed by someone who was hurt in a past life my a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole purpose of this simulation is to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma on DC snow lovers. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

In that regard, 6z Eps did improve over 0z with the stronger wave and the trough off the east coast moving out quicker. Enough? Who knows at this point.

Yes it did. I was debating whether to say that or wait another run to see If it’s a blip 

[mitchnick]

Funny thing is, the Gfs, GfsAI, and Gefs bring out a stronger system and have it pass to our west. Geps, on the other hand, is what we want.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Funny thing is, the Gfs, GfsAI, and Gefs bring out a stronger system and have it pass to our west. Geps, on the other hand, is what we want.

GFS is on Chucks team. It’s weaker with the flow and allows the pacific wave to gain too much latitude before transferring. 

[midatlanticweather]

WPC had quite the wetter outlook - I am certain it was based on earlier model runs. Just sharing.