February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll be pulling into the Shit Face station pretty soon.  Had to go in on a Saturday and it was kinda rough.

[GreyHat]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It’s out. Targets central and southern VA the most but still a good number of hits up our way. It was a colder souther run than 12z. Same as the op. 

Can you tell me why Pivitol shows the following? I was not able to see it while it was coming out.

[Solution Man]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Can you tell me why Pivitol shows the following? I was not able to see it while it was coming out.

It’s called money….gotta pay my man

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

It’s called money….gotta pay my man

Thank you. 

[Yeoman]

43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The original thought was that we were coming out of deep -AO, rising back to neutral, so this could be the big storm. But the Pacific pattern is entering an extreme, and a now projected +450dm -PNA north Pacific High pressure is going to in trend, squash that EC trough, to at least make it warm enough to rain imo. The NAO ridge is right over top, so when the Pacific pattern changes it sometimes take 3 days to impact us downstream, this one is part of the now-time pattern, with a trough perhaps sticking beneath upper latitude ridging. The GEFS has basically brought the NAO to neutral, as you pointed out and the EPS is weakly negative. At this range the ensemble guidance and big picture pattern is the way to go. 

That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

That take assumes the Pacific immediately overwhelms everything downstream, which isn’t how these transitions usually work. A strong NPAC ridge doesn’t automatically squash an EC trough, especially with lingering -AO influence and a trough tucked under higher-latitude ridging. Neutral NAO doesn’t equal warm rain by default. At this range, ensembles are smoothing over key timing and structural details, so declaring this dead based on a broad Pacific signal seems dumb.

The -AO trough is lifting out, as the Polar Vortex places over Alaska at Days 3-5, flushing out the cold and warming up the US pattern. Then the N. Pacific High starts building and establishing. At that point we are already in the Upper 30s, with no cold air reinforcement: The -NAO/-AO is weakening and lifting out. The N. Pacific ridge then gets very strong, a >5820dm block. That does overwhelm weak things in February where the wavelengths are longer. Of course, the further along we go, the warmer it gets. 

[Weather Will]

WB's JB just released an updated video.  His take is that there will be warmup after the upcoming week, followed by a cool down as we head into the end of the month into March.  Reasoning: return of a negative WPO and his belief that the NAO will trend more negative.  He cites similarities to 56 and 60.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB's JB just released an updated video.  His take is that there will be warmup after the upcoming week, followed by a cool down as we head into the end of the month into March.  Reasoning: return of a negative WPO and his belief that the NAO will trend more negative.  He cites similarities to 56 and 60.

I actually agree with this but without the crazy stupid 1960 comp 

Dude can’t just make a projection without comparing it to the most extreme example of what he is talking about. 

[Weather Will]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually agree with this but without the crazy stupid 1960 comp 

Dude can’t just make a projection without comparing it to the most extreme example of what he is talking about. 

I agree with your assessment that the upcoming weekend can still work (snow) before a true thaw takes place and then maybe we reload one more time.   At least it does not look like a shut the  blind's pattern to me yet.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I agree with your assessment that the upcoming weekend can still work (snow) before a true thaw takes place and then maybe we reload one more time.   At least it does not look like a shut the  blind's pattern to me yet.

I think the true thaw lasts about a week and by the very end of Feb we’re tracking again. Keep in mind by then though a “typical” regime with snow chances will still be in the 40s or even 50s. We’re probably done with sustained cold after the next few days. Not saying we don’t get some truly cold days. But not weeks of it.  But a regime wit a high of 45 when it’s sunny in March can be plenty cold enough to snow 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

before a true thaw takes place

It's looking to be short lived, followed by another cooldown that goes into March.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

It's looking to be short lived, followed by another cooldown that goes into March.

Long range 12z EPS today brings cold back the last week of Feb

[soadforecasterx]

This pretty consistent 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Long range 12z EPS today brings cold back the last week of Feb

Also I would not be shocked if the post PD warmup gets muted like all the other ones have since New Year's. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM

[Kevin Reilly]

51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the true thaw lasts about a week and by the very end of Feb we’re tracking again. Keep in mind by then though a “typical” regime with snow chances will still be in the 40s or even 50s. We’re probably done with sustained cold after the next few days. Not saying we don’t get some truly cold days. But not weeks of it.  But a regime wit a high of 45 when it’s sunny in March can be plenty cold enough to snow 

Ummm yes it was 47f some areas 50f the day before the March 12-14th superstorm.  Hell it was 43f when the first flakes fell at onset with winds gusting to 40 mph out of the NNE. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The -AO trough is lifting out, as the Polar Vortex places over Alaska at Days 3-5, flushing out the cold and warming up the US pattern. Then the N. Pacific High starts building and establishing. At that point we are already in the Upper 30s, with no cold air reinforcement: The -NAO/-AO is weakening and lifting out. The N. Pacific ridge then gets very strong, a >5820dm block. That does overwhelm weak things in February where the wavelengths are longer. Of course, the further along we go, the warmer it gets. 

You’re assuming a clean, immediate pattern flip that the guidance doesn’t actually show—cold erosion is gradual, downstream response lags the Pacific, and a strong NPAC ridge doesn’t guarantee East Coast warmth without a confirmed height rise, which isn’t locked in yet.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Ummm yes it was 47f some areas 50f the day before the March 12-14th superstorm.  Hell it was 43f when the first flakes fell at onset with winds gusting to 40 mph out of the NNE. 

It was warm. I was in Annapolis that evening worried about temps, staring at a flag pole concerned as well about wind direction while sitting at the bar. Lol  Nowadays, I  would just be staring at my phone for temps and wind. But not knowing was part of the fun.