Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Last time I can remember this much sleet/ ice was Superstorm 93 when I was in my 20s and living in PG. Can remember "skating" in my backyard on ice crusted snow. It was great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: First time I've ever seen my tool used in the wild! Thanks NPCJoey <happy tear> 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr. That’s what this is reminding me of too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Weather Will said: Last time I can remember this much sleet/ ice was Superstorm 93 when I was in my 20s and living in PG. Can remember "skating" in my backyard on ice crusted snow. It was great! Yea I remember in the early 90s having to take a hammer and chisel to our driveway because there was at least 1/2" of ice on everything. It actually was a bad thing that we shoveled the snow off because anything that still had some snow left on it, the ice came up easy. Bare surfaces the ice had adhered to and didn't want to let go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nams have sleet all the way into southern CT & RI. Just wait Boston, the sleet's coming for you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mitchnick said: Nams have sleet all the way into southern CT & RI. Just wait Boston, the sleet's coming for you too! How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Will be watching Nashville. They are forecasted for 2-3" If they get thumped with more then might be good sign for us, if they get skunked then we are cooked. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Minor models: FV3 remains cold. 17-18Z changeover in DC. 0.8" QPF to that point 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover. ~0.65" 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 3k NAM has over 1" QPF here from 24-36h. All sleet. That's awful. Nam says we don't see much daytime snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, konksw said: How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? Surface level cold, the upper levels get blasted with warmth from the south. Someone smarter than me can explain how when the coastal low bombs out it brings in cold air. Something about the wind direction I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, konksw said: How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Minor models: FV3 remains cold. 17-18Z changeover in DC. 0.8" QPF to that point 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover. ~0.65" 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4" Yeah was gonna say shield your eyes on the MPAS cores… could be the worst of all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time. Looks to be on an island though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, konksw said: How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? I was in Vermont back in 1994 I think, and saw the thermometer at -28 overnight, only to have a storm cut and we rained the same day. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, konksw said: How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Minor models: FV3 remains cold. 17-18Z changeover in DC. 0.8" QPF to that point 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover. ~0.65" 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4" Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time. Thanks. It feels unbelievable. Maybe it’ll happen but having a hard time buying what it is selling in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, LP08 said: Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need RRFS has had a horrific trend for central VA since its 0z runs, really concerned I may fully bust this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The WRF mesos are also worse unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in. But then immediately rush right back in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, konksw said: How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through? It's not blowing through. It's blowing over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need It delays the change in DC until between 11 and 12, but has the same or less snow due to less qpf. Problem is, with the qpf comes the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The RRFS doesn't even look plausible with the precip shield, but it is ~0.4" in DC before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The HRRR is only starting to get to the WAA with its hourly runs now but between 13z hr17/12z hr18 VA got drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The RRFS doesn't even look plausible with the precip shield, but it is ~0.4" in DC before the flip. The precip shield makes it look like one big warm front. Maybe that's all it is for us. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If radar is any indication at the moment, Nashville seems almost guaranteed to overperform in the snow department and it’s wild to think, given the current trajectory, that the mix line would end up anywhere near us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Ya'll over here analyzing end of run hrrr maps and models we'd never look at cause they are garbage. Hard to keep reading this thread right now. lol. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If radar is any indication at the moment, Nashville seems almost guaranteed to overperform in the snow department and it’s wild to think, given the current trajectory, that the mix line would end up anywhere near us. Yes. Seeing a lot of folks on WxTwitter in Nashville surprised at how much snow if falling there. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Got un-nam'd this morning! Less than an inch qpf in the Northern Neck with a dry slot. Hahaha... Hopefully those models will bust but it's a huge red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, Interstate said: Can snow blowers blow 6 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet on top? spray the intake chut inside and augers good with silicone, helps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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