Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Weather Will]

Last time I can remember this much sleet/ ice was Superstorm 93 when I was in my 20s and living in PG. Can remember "skating" in my backyard on ice crusted snow.  It was great!

[Jmister]

25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

First time I've ever seen my tool used in the wild! Thanks NPCJoey <happy tear>

[anotherman]

This has that 12/20 feel where the Euro had me at 18" and BWI was 4"+ two days before, only for the Nam to knock sense into everything. I ended up with 6" and then ip/zr. 

That’s what this is reminding me of too.

[mdhokie]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Last time I can remember this much sleet/ ice was Superstorm 93 when I was in my 20s and living in PG. Can remember "skating" in my backyard on ice crusted snow.  It was great!

Yea I remember in the early 90s having to take a hammer and chisel to our driveway because there was at least 1/2" of ice on everything. It actually was a bad thing that we shoveled the snow off because anything that still had some snow left on it, the ice came up easy. Bare surfaces the ice had adhered to and didn't want to let go.

[mitchnick]

Nams have sleet all the way into southern CT & RI. Just wait Boston, the sleet's coming for you too!

[konksw]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Nams have sleet all the way into southern CT & RI. Just wait Boston, the sleet's coming for you too!

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

[TSSN+]

Will be watching Nashville. They are forecasted for 2-3" If they get thumped with more then might be good sign for us, if they get skunked then we are cooked. 

[MN Transplant]

Minor models:

• FV3 remains cold.  17-18Z changeover in DC.  0.8" QPF to that point
• 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover.  ~0.65"
• 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4"

[Chris78]

13 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

3k NAM has over 1" QPF here from 24-36h.  All sleet.

That's awful. Nam says we don't see much daytime snow lol

[mdhokie]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

Surface level cold, the upper levels get blasted with warmth from the south. Someone smarter than me can explain how when the coastal low bombs out it brings in cold air. Something about the wind direction I believe. 

[baltosquid]

2 minutes ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time.

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Minor models:

• FV3 remains cold.  17-18Z changeover in DC.  0.8" QPF to that point
• 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover.  ~0.65"
• 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4"

Yeah was gonna say shield your eyes on the MPAS cores… could be the worst of all of them

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time.

Looks to be on an island though.

[somecallmetim]

4 minutes ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

I was in Vermont back in 1994 I think, and saw the thermometer at -28 overnight, only to have a storm cut and we rained the same day.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Minor models:

• FV3 remains cold.  17-18Z changeover in DC.  0.8" QPF to that point
• 06z HRDPS is in the middle with a 14-15z changeover.  ~0.65"
• 06z MPAS-HTPO is about 14z, with lighter precip ~0.4"

Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need

[konksw]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time.

Thanks. It feels unbelievable. Maybe it’ll happen but having a hard time buying what it is selling in my head. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, LP08 said:

Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need

RRFS has had a horrific trend for central VA since its 0z runs, really concerned I may fully bust this storm. 

[baltosquid]

The WRF mesos are also worse unfortunately.

[konksw]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Insufficient blocking allows it to be pushed out as fast as it came in.

But then immediately rush right back in? 

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, konksw said:

How does that fail to happen a lot of the time with a much more marginally cold airmass but now we have this very cold airmass and somehow it’s gonna get blown right through?

It's not blowing through. It's blowing over it. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Rffs seems to be better with more precip in the timeframe we need

It delays the change in DC until between 11 and 12, but has the same or less snow due to less qpf. Problem is, with the qpf comes the warmth. 

[MN Transplant]

The RRFS doesn't even look plausible with the precip shield, but it is ~0.4" in DC before the flip.

[baltosquid]

The HRRR is only starting to get to the WAA with its hourly runs now but between 13z hr17/12z hr18 VA got drier. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

The RRFS doesn't even look plausible with the precip shield, but it is ~0.4" in DC before the flip.

The precip shield makes it look like one big warm front. Maybe that's all it is for us. Lol

[osfan24]

If radar is any indication at the moment, Nashville seems almost guaranteed to overperform in the snow department and it’s wild to think, given the current trajectory, that the mix line would end up anywhere near us.

[TSSN+]

Ya'll over here analyzing end of run hrrr maps and models we'd never look at cause they are garbage. Hard to keep reading this thread right now. lol. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If radar is any indication at the moment, Nashville seems almost guaranteed to overperform in the snow department and it’s wild to think, given the current trajectory, that the mix line would end up anywhere near us.

Yes. Seeing a lot of folks on WxTwitter in Nashville surprised at how much snow if falling there.

[peribonca]

Got un-nam'd this morning! Less than an inch qpf in the Northern Neck with a dry slot. Hahaha... Hopefully those models will bust but it's a huge red flag.

[stormy]

24 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Can snow blowers blow 6 inches of snow with 2 inches of sleet on top?

spray the intake chut inside and augers good with silicone, helps.