Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Warm Nose]

The number of people taking the NAM as unimpeachable is laughable.

It's this weird thing where instead of hugging the model with the highest snowfall, they cling to the worst.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

A changeover before noon would not be ideal, but if I’ve got 6” on the ground by then, then so be it. I’ve been hugging the euro for my backyard. 

Bare minimum I'm asking for too. It should not be this hard to do, lol

[MillvilleWx]

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

[mappy]

Nam is wild. .7 qpf before the flip, another .7 after. Snow depth map is 10+ IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen multiple inches of sleet before 

[mappy]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

Sweet, firmly within a black halo  

Thanks for this! 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

Curious how bad do you think Icing will be on that map? In particular near Cvill as I’ve decided if over .4 is likely I’m driving to nova to avoid power outages  

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z RRFS pounds DC metro between 09z and 13z

Looks like maybe 0.4/0.5” QPF before the flip?

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

2.5 inches of sleet on top of 4.5 inches of snow would be wild. 

 

The NAM has been right, but it’s also fell on its face in embarrassing fashion close up to events as well so of course consider it but I wouldn’t assume 100 percent it is correct.  Just have to keep it in mind as a possibility. 

I thought the NAM was sort of useful 5 minutes before precip start? And even then it’s wrong AF! Am I missing something here!? LOL. I guess we all have nothing else to do at this point except look for how we can fail? Jeez! Manifest some positive vibes, peeps! It’s going to snow. Be happy that we can actually still snow in our new semi-tropical climate. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

Hopefully this low ball busts so bad

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I thought the NAM was sort of useful 5 minutes before precip start? And even then it’s wrong AF! Am I missing something here!? LOL. I guess we all have nothing else to do at this point except look for how we can fail? Jeez! Manifest some positive vibes, peeps! It’s going to snow. Be happy that we can actually still snow in our new semi-tropical climate. 

We've had sleet busts before...that's why it's concerning.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Curious how bad do you think Icing will be on that map? In particular near Cvill as I’ve decided if over .4 is likely I’m driving to nova to avoid power outages  

Honestly, have not been paying attention enough to the ZR portion of the storm, so I don't want to give bad information. I think snow and sleet will be the majority, but I'm really keeping an eye on the NAM Nest and how other hi-res respond tomorrow. The school will likely have generator power, so I would stay. I stayed for the big ice storm at Millersville in 2014 and it was awesome. Incredible pictures came from that one. Just stay safe down there!

[pazzo83]

we had several inches of sleet from PD2 in Charlottesville.  It definitely did not melt for a while.

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

First Call Forecast 

Went with a EC/AIFS/AIGFS blend with a stronger push on the FGEN, front end thump to help with many on Sunday AM, but I am very very wary of the NAM Nest right now, so will revise if necessary tomorrow. For now, I'm sticking with this. I do think banding will be impressive area wide. Just a matter of how thermals behave. Going to be a big day of trend monitoring tomorrow. Also, the lines are imperfect. I wish I had a better program, but utilized Microsoft Designer and it wasn't too bad. Wil work with it. 

Thoughts about freezing rain? Probably too soon, but some CAM soundings are showing a warm nose down to 900mb at the bottom DC and SE. i’m hoping that doesn’t creep north because of the risk of power outages, and difficulty of crews getting to fix them due to the preceding snow/sleet accums. 

As for as mby, I’m on the dark blue line or just underneath. When I’m on the line I like to mentally split the difference, as in 6-10” max 12”. Which was what I had in mind as far as my own forecast goes. 

EDIT: Saw your reply to Snowen, that answers my question. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I thought the NAM was sort of useful 5 minutes before precip start? And even then it’s wrong AF! Am I missing something here!? LOL. I guess we all have nothing else to do at this point except look for how we can fail? Jeez! Manifest some positive vibes, peeps! It’s going to snow. Be happy that we can actually still snow in our new semi-tropical climate. 

I’m not sure if you’re responding to me or the general vibe.  But I agree with you. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hopefully this low ball busts so bad

I want to be so wrong, that people look at me and go, "Man, isn't that that guy who was really wrong and sucks at forecasting? Don't even look his way, you might catch the Wrong..."

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Sweet, firmly within a black halo  

Thanks for this! 

You are not that young. Don’t you remember 94?

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I thought the NAM was sort of useful 5 minutes before precip start? And even then it’s wrong AF! Am I missing something here!? LOL. I guess we all have nothing else to do at this point except look for how we can fail? Jeez! Manifest some positive vibes, peeps! It’s going to snow. Be happy that we can actually still snow in our new semi-tropical climate. 

Yeah we need to project positive vibes on this thing.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to be so wrong, that people look at me and go, "Man, isn't that that guy who was really wrong and sucks at forecasting? Don't even look his way, you might catch the Wrong..."

Im thinking about my own forecast for Sunday and man im just hoping the NAM caves because otherwise I don’t know how I even make one. I say oh yeah could have an inch or 10 inches of snow and sleet depending on which model handles the warm nose. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Thoughts about freezing rain? Probably too soon, but some CAM soundings are showing a warm nose down to 900mb at the bottom DC and SE. i’m hoping that doesn’t creep north because of the risk of power outages, and difficulty of crews getting to fix them due to the preceding snow/sleet accums. 

As for as mby, I’m on the dark blue line or just underneath. When I’m on the line I like to mentally split the difference, as in 6-10” max 12”. Which was what I had in mind as far as my own forecast goes. 

Yeah, like I told Snowen, I have not paid attention to ZR much, so apologies for not really having an answer on that. I've been focused on the snow and sleet like crazy, so I can't give a great answer. I'll say this, any freezing rain will accrete very very efficiently with these temperatures. I think most here stay in the low to mid-20s MAX. Only east of the Bay and far southern MD will break 26F imo. It's going to be really hard to scour out. 

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You are not that young. Don’t you remember 94?

I remember close to 6" of sleet in NoVA in one storm that year

[Scraff]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

We've had sleet busts before...that's why it's concerning.

PTSD. I get it and understand. But still NAM?? The same NAM that needs to be brought back out behind the shed? I’ll sweat the NAM tomorrow. Then again, I have alcohol I’ll need to sweat out first. 

[nj2va]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

we had several inches of sleet from PD2 in Charlottesville.  It definitely did not melt for a while.

I’m kinda excited for a sleet bomb after snow.  We’re going to be a glacier.

Down to 27 here.  1/-3 at Deep Creek!

[LeesburgWx]

Have dropped another 10 degrees since 8pm. Was 28 and now down to 18. Getting that cold AF feel real fast

[Interstate]

18.2/3.7

[Terpeast]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Have dropped another 10 degrees since 8pm. Was 28 and now down to 18. Getting that cold AF feel real fast

22 now. This cold means business

[Wow]

Enjoy ice!

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

22 now. This cold means business

Down to 13 here 

[bncho]

I actually planned on doing a revised forecast tonight, but the models are not handling the HP out west well at all. I'll release a final call tomorrow at 18z.

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I’m not sure if you’re responding to me or the general vibe.  But I agree with you. 

Yeah. I just went off on my own tangent. Sorry. LOLZ. But we are on the same page for sure! You are super level headed. Always have been. Long day of DIPA’s is my current issue.  

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

I actually planned on doing a revised forecast tonight, but the models are not handling the HP out west well at all. I'll release a final call tomorrow at 18z.

Why not just do it Sunday at 2pm? I do think that nowcast does bode well for us, less ML warm tongues out there.