JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow Probably the absolute latest the cave happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's just slightly warmer but it's just not going the route the other models show I'm not unhappy at this run verbatim, but I'm gonna take the pessimistic route and say that the confluence was ever so lessened on this run and it was reflected in the more prominent warm nose at 700 late on Sunday...and that 6z is going to take another step and be the obvious cave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: GFS seems to hold. And more to come after hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 0Z GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow...if it caves it will be the most wrong the GFS has ever been on a storm we're tracking, lol I mean we're at 72 hrs and no change! I mean it HAS to happen at 12z tomorrow if it's gonna happen, right? Well someone has to cave or maybe meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 There's some serious PTSD in this thread 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just wondering, what happens after 72hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwLwx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Eyeballing those panels looks like about 11" here. 8" snow and 3" sleet then a .1 of ice. That is OK, minus that the OTG total after it stops will be in the 7" range. It'll be around a while though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, TSSN+ said: Love the run cause it crushes me, but it moves to the warmer models. Primary was stronger that run, coastal was shoved more into the coast. Also only model that flips back to snow after mix. Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, TowsonWeather said: I mean, I'm as skeptical as everyone else that this will verify, but you're reaching some here, I think. These are mostly noise level differences. Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 AiGFS was colder than 18z at least at 700, fwiw 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 00z GFS is the best case scenario. 8"-12" along I-95, 12"-16" immediate western suburbs. 16"+ west of US 15. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 How much snow is really going to depend on where the heaviest bands set up before the flip. Look at WB 0Z GFS compared to 18Z. Many of us lost several inches but there are those southeast of DC that picked up more this run. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ? The 850mb low needs to track south of us. If it tracks NW of our area were most likely going to dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GFS is about 8-9" for DC before the flip which is about 2-ish? we're hodl'ing at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: It's subtle, the GFS did cave a bit back to the west at 850mb looking at the isohypses. Not as far as other global guidance (Euro, UKMET, CMC, etc.) It's still very aggressive on it's coastal development along the warm front. More so than other models, which in turn slows down the WF advance northward. So safe to say if we a similar cave at 6z then it's on it's way, lol Goodness gracious this model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 hours ago, baltosquid said: Yeah it looks like it's amping a bit more. I don't know if this depiction survives even another small nudge like that. agree that GFS is starting its gradual cave towards Euro. To me it appears to have lost a couple inches of snow for most/many from the 18Z run. I expect it will shave a couple inches off each run and meet the Euro fairly closely at game time. For me in Towson, I am expecting 5-10 inches of snow turning to sleet. then a light freezing rain to top it off. It will still be cold, white, and beautiful! Just not as deep! But should be fun walking on top of it this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 cmc doesn't look bad no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Isn’t it common for these big storms for sleet to change back to snow ? there's no real wraparound. we just get dry slotted. If GFS is right, Loudoun will get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bringmesnow1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Idk if the GFS really held serve. While it's still putting down good snows for many, the trend is undeniably moving the bigger snows further to the NW with each of the last 4 runs. If this keeps up, it'll be squarely in the camp of the other models calling for a lot of QPF, but more like 5-10" of snow for the big cities, followed by a lot of sleet. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, gopper said: For me in Towson, I am expecting 5-10 inches of snow Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range. That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range. Please go to bed. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 this is for SE of 95. if we flip on the early side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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