DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, hstorm said: 12k NAM: Thank you sir; both are pretty wet. Good to see, give us the QPF first and foremost, especially in the front end piece. That’s how we all win 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GGEM is a beatdown for a lot of folks here. 8+ for metro areas thanks to a big thump. Bit colder as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Ji said: i think 18z could be snow. If its heavy enough may it fights off the sleet this is near Leesburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Okay so here we are at what...48 hrs? Are there any signs of a cave so far? Not really. It is definitely a touch warmer up top this run. But its been pretty damn consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CMC definitely improved over 00z 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: GGEM is a beatdown for a lot of folks here. 8+ for metro areas thanks to a big thump. Bit colder as well. First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, clskinsfan said: Not really. It is definitely a touch warmer up top this run. But its been pretty damn consistent. We are certainly rooting for the GFS in our necks, it’s how this can produce close to memorable #’s for us. 15+ is not out of the question with a few minor changes overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Everyone expecting a full on cave here. These are noise level changes. Snow starts tomorrow night. Don’t expect major changes at this point, unless things get warmer like the 12z NAM showed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Not really. It's just as accurate to say the Euro has incrementally moved to the GFS. The GFS, for better or for worse, has been one of the most consistent models over the last couple of days (once it finally figured out there was a storm for us, lol) in terms of how it sees the evolution of this thing unfolding. And yeah, the raw snowfall output has crept down a bit and the ice component crept up a bit, but the Euro (and some other models) have taken clear steps toward the GFS in terms of expanding the frozen precip shield more back to the S and SE and not being as aggressive with driving the low into Toledo and initiating a lower latitude transfer to the coast. Ok then they both incrementally moved towards general agreement. I tend to watch the location and track of the developing coastal low because that has more influence over here. GFS has shifted NW with the track and is warmer than it was(more like the Euro) as the flow off the ocean erodes the low level cold for a time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Maestrobjwa said: First time all week it's had a friendlier run, lol As cavi posted above, it was actually a notable move in the gfs direction. We need those kinds of trends down the home stretch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I think the gfs and euro are meeting in the middle, with the cmc joining them. Starting tomorrow the synoptics should be in place, and we’ll start taking the thermals seriously. Hopefully the NAM is wrong today and shifts colder tomorrow. All we need is a 20-30 mile shift to the cooler side at 700-850, and double digits is in play along and west of the fall line. 10 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Snow through 15z for DC and southern burbs since they will flip earlier - hopefully after 10 am but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'd post the CMC pretty maps but CMC/GEM and RGEM/RDPS are essentially the same model so why bother. Only big difference I see is the RGEM really slams us during the transition period, which is in line with how this usually goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM’s are hands down the most aggressive at the handling of the thermal profiles with the warm nose marching northward faster than any other guidance. I do think it’ll come in quick, but perhaps the NAM is too aggressive at this lead. NAM Nest wheelhouse starts tonight and improves stepping through time closer to the event. Curious to see how it responds. The margins are thin when it comes to the handling of the warm nose between 850-700mb. I think what it will come down to is the intensity of the WAA precip Sunday morning to midday. The NAM issue IMO is it's a bit lackluster in that regard over VA and MD south of 70. There is a disconnect between the h7 and h85 FGEN and the lift is displaced from the DGZ and the precip just isn't cranking like we need. The mid level temps jump way north during this period where the precip is less than thumpy and it never recovers...you see once the warm layer hits where the heavier precip is ongoing along the PA line it stalls for a while...we need that to happen further south...which it would IMO if there was heavy precip going on to fight the warming. What I would like to see is what the thermals will look like if the NAM comes around to look like what all other guidance does in terms of the precip profile during the 9z-15z time period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said: What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south. As presented that's an astonishing map. Are those #s even possible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Crazy Uncle looks like it smoked the good stuff at 12z. The ptype shows snow way down SW of DC at 18z. Way different look. Would be much snowier. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I believe @wxmeddlersaid that Friday 12z runs are the real go time for models to hone in on a final solution. Not sure to trust the GFS thermals just yet as the same with the NAM. But the GFS getting some support from CMC/GEM is encouraging. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Well the UK is definitely in the colder camp, snow down to NC still Sunday morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Crazy Uncle looks like it smoked the good stuff at 12z. The ptype shows snow way down SW of DC at 18z. Way different look. Would be much snowier. Some really weird handling of the LP transfer. Sleet line evaporates down south as it tries (and fails?) to go off the NC coast before reappearing over all of Virginia as the MSLP eventually runs up the Apps. Idk what to make of it minus it's probably a toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, wdcrob said: As presented that's an astonishing map. Are those #s even possible? Absolutely! In the lates 80s had a sleet bomb in Atlanta that produced about 5 inches of sleet. It’s interesting to watch it poor off roofs, it behaves like a liquid and piles up. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like a bug at least on pivotal. Has sleet solidly in central Va then the algorithm changes all of sleet back to snow. Still is a great thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, wdcrob said: As presented that's an astonishing map. Are those #s even possible? I wonder what the sleet record is for DC/Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Looks like a bug at least on pivotal. Has sleet solidly in central Va then the algorithm changes all of sleet back to snow. Still is a great thump. It's *possible* the warm nose might not be as bad, and it's oscillating right on the edge of flipping between snow and sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Development has begun! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Well models are very bullish on we will be doing this all over again next week with a Big Event next weekend possible. Check the GFS and CMC 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well the UK is definitely in the colder camp, snow down to NC still Sunday morning. This is like the 4th straight model with this kind of trend, and not one person has said "Caving to the GFS" ;-) In all seriousness, I love these trends this morning. Let's keep it going. Every little tick south could mean hours or more of snow vs. sleet/freezing rain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, winter_warlock said: I know that this may be me wishing it... But there have been many many storms in the past where the modeling said a change over was going to occur, but never did. Would be nice if this was also one of those times. Models are walking that very narrow line where the change over occurs This is true but not so much so in recent times. tends to be true more so when it comes to freezing rain turning to plain rain as surface temps are difficult for models but I am I right there with you on hoping the turn over does not occur or at least holds off longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: This is like the 4th straight model with this kind of trend, and not one person has said "Caving to the GFS" ;-) In all seriousness, I love these trends this morning. Let's keep it going. Every little tick south could mean hours or more of snow vs. sleet/freezing rain. There's still time as the players are being sampled better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The UK ptype maps had a glitch...shows snow in places that are clearly above freezing at 850 at 15z Sunday. It still has a good thump legit for the area, 6-8" from what I can tell DC north to PA line... but the maps have to be thrown out because its not calculating precip type correctly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 22 hours ago, MN Transplant said: My estimates of the precip before and after the modeled changeover in DC. Model Model Run Prior QPF Time of flip Post-flip QPF Euro 12z Thursday 0.75" 18z Sun 0.65" GFS 12z Thursday 0.90" 02z-07z Mon 0.52" GDPS 12z Thursday 0.80" 15z Sun 0.84" ICON 12z Thursday 0.70" 16z Sun 0.54" UKMET 12z Thursday 1.05" 22z Sun 0.50" AIFS 12z Thursday 0.62" 15z Sun 0.75" AIGFS 12z Thursday 0.75" 15z Sun 0.70" RDPS 12z Thursday 0.84" 13z Sun 0.62"+ 12k NAM 12z Thursday 0.60" 14z Sun 0.90"+ Updated version 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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