Maestrobjwa Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range. That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Based on the last euro run and some forecasts here made in response to it I think it’ll be near the ceiling of your range. Please go to bed. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I mean I guess if we see those features strengthen/weaken again at 6z then perhaps it is a trend. But hard to tell that right now I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago this is for SE of 95. if we flip on the early side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, TowsonWeather said: I guess I'm a big dummy because I'm just not seeing any noteworthy evidence of a cave here. And let me be clear: I FULLY expect the GFS to cave some or all of the way to a Euro-like solution at some point. I'm just saying that, to my eye anyway, the differences folks are pointing to are so small and synoptically inconsequential as to be well within the normal run-to-run variability. It's actually remarkably consistent with the 18Z run. Again, to my eye. I fully acknowledge I could be missing something big. From what a couple others have said it makes sense...very subtle changes but they're there. 6z and 12z will certainly be telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago WB 0Z Can. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Here's what I'm thinking. In the upper levels, any difference in temperature can make a huge difference at the surface. A bust -0.25*C cold is probably an extra hour of snow before a flip to mixing, which is an extra 1-2". In these overrunning CAD setups it's harder to predict the upper level temps. There's more risk for those forecasts to bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. Thats 1" more precip than the Euro in some spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. lol well that would be something. 7" snow to 2.5" sleet then .5" ZR? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, nj2va said: Looks like DC stays all snow until about 15z Sunday on CMC based off the 700 map. By then 1” of QPF has fallen so its quite the thump. yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well. Yes, you can catch up on your biology.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Can. Great, an inch of rain apparently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, balltermen said: yeah. even assuming 12:1, that's a good hit. I'm going with noon flip for DC for now. seems about the right time for the infamous sound of pinging Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago YMMV, but i think it makes sense to forecast snow amounts as "including" sleet since it's included anyway. 6-10" (including sleet) is better than 5-8" of snow. and then 1-2" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, Nomz said: Worth noting that the LWX AFD says "Snow to liquid ratios look to start around 15-18:1 with this system for the entirety of the area, while then trending down toward 7-10:1 Sunday morning into the afternoon" yeah. I'm not as apt to bite on that. I figure 12:1 is a conservative blend until we flip. then around 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. It got lost, it’s all rain for you. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. Cold air slower to come in slower to leave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. The arctic front doesn't come through until Friday evening, but when it does, the freeze is on. Multiple models show upper 30s at 4pm falling to low teens by 1am. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Where is the cold air btw? Temps are running +5 to +10 over modeled currently around our region. Seems as modeled to me. Right now I am 38.7F. Most recent NAM calls for 39F. 24 hours ago NAM called for 37. Seems pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Ukie looks colder than 18z through 60 (which was end of run for the 18z). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Was CMC colder compared to 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 minutes ago, balltermen said: it looks kinda ugly. flip is around 17z maybe for DC. That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That map is trash and includes sleet. Calculating in on pivtol its like 6" snow dc before the flip about 10 at the pa line. yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 2 minutes ago, balltermen said: yeah. not sure why I posted 18z Monday. I think meant to do 18z sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. What really tends to irk me is how we faithfully track storms, only to have the damn NNE get the snow, while we make due with the scraps. Time after time, after time after time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, Jebman said: This board has really become kinda slow. It's been really fun readin all the posts - but now everything has kind of fallen off. Jeb I was supposed to be flying out your way on Sunday - obviously that's not happening, now we're going next weekend. Aren't you worried about losing power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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