January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[psuhoffman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Icon should be significantly improved this run 

I never even looked at its 6z run lol 

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I never even looked at its 6z run lol 

Was not the best lol 

[baltosquid]

Flatter flow as snow begins. Phase is a bit more disjointed.

[Solution Man]

That wedge at 72 down through Virginia is very prevalent on the icon this time

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It also happened up here in March 2018 with the front running WAA snow....models had that flipping to sleet up here after only a couple inches and it stayed heavy snow through the whole WAA thump and we got about 8" before the dry slot when we got snizzle until the ULL associated stuff that got the whole area with 4-8" the next day.  

That was the first huge sign to me the upgraded Euro stunk because the night before (0z) it dropped 20"+ imby, then the next run was 12"+, and I  ended up with 3"+.

[stormtracker]

Hell of a sleet bomb at 18z Sunday

[baltosquid]

Oh, interesting trend on the ICON popping into view. Check the low around Hudson Bay. Run to run it is impinging downstream on the NS energy that wants to phase. Could that help string out the energy perhaps and de-amp?

[bncho]

ICON is 6-12", more NW, less SE. I'm going to take that and run,

[Interstate]

Yeah... the outcome is not much different on the ICON

[LP08]

Seems that the first couple pieces of guidance at 12z (NAM, RGEM,ICON) delay the phase out west compared to their previous runs.  And before anyone says anything i know these are not even the B squad lol

[TSSN+]

Icon was heading euro and gfs way. Onto the real models now 

[bncho]

ICON was actually a tick SE and gave most areas (including NW areas) about 25% more snow.

[TSSN+]

Here’s the 6z and 12z comparison 

 

[mitchnick]

Last comment on 12z Nam, if you look at the 84hrs Conus surface map, there was a lot of precip to go. It was definitely heading toward the long long duration scenario of one form of precip or another.

[Nomz]

Icon doesn’t really make sense to me with warmer 700mb temps due west of DC

[TSSN+]

Rgem coming in looking flatter as well. 
 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Rgem coming in looking flatter as well. 
 

Cmon seasonal Nina atmos memory, sloppy phase, sloppy phase!

[Bob Chill]

My yard is a kitchen sink no matter what but I'd take the ICON all day over the ice runs that are popping up. 5" of snow and 3" of sleet is 1 million times better than anything that has a half inch of ice or more. Our forests are loaded with pines. Big ice would be awful to clean up behind.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cmon seasonal Nina atmos memory, sloppy phase, sloppy phase!

that is just so f-ing beautiful I am just staring at it.  connected 1040s up top.  man that is just pretty 

[hstorm]

RGEM looks a bit colder but also less QPF overall than 6z.  At least through 78.

[TSSN+]

Rgem continues the colder trend 

 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

RGEM looks a bit colder but also less QPF overall than 6z.  At least through 78.

Ain’t worried about qpf on the models yet that will bounce around till tomorrow. Let’s get temps good first 

[LP08]

I guess with a later sloppier phase we do lose some of the super intense thump, who knows what to root for anymore!

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 9Z SREF thru 7pm Sunday

This is just sooooo far off from the Euro, the GFS, the AIs, NWS forecast, and the NBM for my area that it should be disregarded and tossed.

[baltosquid]

I want to put myself in the shoes of someone to our north who may prefer amping. I think if I was looking at the stuff out west and potential fragility of that phase, with the Baja piece threatening to lag, I’d probably be sweating a bit. Confluence also has threatened to increase. Still seems guaranteed to amp some but when you reframe it like this I think it shows a lot of the angst is putting the blinders on. I don’t think we’re gonna get the dream all-snow scenario but there are real risks to the phase that I’m sure we’d be honing in on if we were hoping for a phase.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

This is just sooooo far off from the Euro, the GFS, the AIs, NWS forecast, and the NBM for my area that it is just a toss and should be disregarded and tossed.

Yeah I'd say there's a pretty solid consensus that, no matter where the sleet line sets up, it sets up about parallel to the Blue Ridge

[Buddy1987]

@Bob Chillcheck out hr 64 on the RGEM. That is an absolute beatdown right across 460 line out to you.

[grhqofb5]

So the RGEM shows the storm entering the DC area around 1:00am Sunday 1/25 and continuing until about 1:00pm on Monday 1/27. Is 36 hours that about right for duration?

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem coming in looking flatter as well. 
 

 

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Rgem continues the colder trend 

 

It's weird looking at these 2 GIFs.  the top one has the 6z slamming a LP into TN and 12z its gone.  Bottom one as a 6z LP into middle KY and 12z the triangle of KY/TN/VA.  It's like the 12z are sniffing out a stronger HP to the north each run and adjusting.  If stout walls of cold can stay above it will be interesting to see if the models move to a colder solution or still find ways to punch warm noses into our areas

[umdterps29]

2 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

So the RGEM shows the storm entering the DC area around 1:00am Sunday 1/25 and continuing until about 1:00pm on Monday 1/27. Is 36 hours that about right for duration?

The RGEM run ends at 7pm Sunday and looks basically over. What are you looking at?