January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[wxdude64]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Check date on that 12.23.25

They knew about this storm a month ago? Impressive!

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

     

      The NBM does not use Kuchera.   It uses a mix of different SLR techniques.

We are so fortunate to have you around and even more fortunate that you’re patient.

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Then no I cannot confirm lol. Timestamp is different 12.23.25

It's a time series STARTING 12-23-25, read it closely

[ravensrule]

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

We are so fortunate to have you around and even more fortunate that you’re patient.

He has some serious knowledge, it’s extremely impressive. 

[nj2va]

I don’t see much of any change in the early GFS hours (which has the new data).

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, nj2va said:

I don’t see much of any change in the early GFS hours (which has the new data).

it's actually a hair west with our baja low by H21. after already being the most held back

[stormtracker]

GFS out to 30..nothing noteworthy vs 18z

[baltosquid]

Just now, nj2va said:

I don’t see much of any change in the early GFS hours (which has the new data).

Baja low is more cutoff (now cutoff at 567 by hr21), but it was close to being cutoff at 18z anyway so not a huge change.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

     

      The NBM does not use Kuchera.   It uses a mix of different SLR techniques.

Does it have a score for accuracy? 

[WesternFringe]

38 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Shit.. I’m kinda hurt by this.. I’ve literally been around since the Eastern US Weather days and have posted plenty of times in here, mainly in the winter months. People acting like I’m posting from Jackson Hole  I call it the dead zone down here because we are inbetween the mid Atlantic and southeast forum crews. 

I appreciate your posts and observations as your weather often becomes mine in Augusta County!  Hope we trend colder and less sleet and ice as we approach game time!

[stormtracker]

Differences are really minute..northern stream energy out west is a bit western..but nothing jumping out

[high risk]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Does it have a score for accuracy? 

   

    Stats are generated, but the comparisons are to the WFO forecast grids, since the NBM is the starting point.   It generally scores well if the input models are doing well;  it performs bias correction, but that has limitations.    

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS out to 30..nothing noteworthy vs 18z

i think confluence may be stronger?

[eduggs]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

nobody knows that the icon is except for people on this forum....so no

In Europe, the ICON is considered a superior model to the GFS particularly out to 72 hours and across mid-latitudes. The GFS does not have the dominant perch amongst global models that it used to have.

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

lol Ji found the Weather Channel Local Forecast Music - Winter 1991 vintage 

https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/ will do it with your real local data 

[stormtracker]

Looks more interactive and a tick east with the baja s/w so far

[stormtracker]

Yeah it's definitely a little more amp'd than 18z..heights slightly higher out front

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Differences are really minute..northern stream energy out west is a bit western..but nothing jumping out

Yeah this is the only thing jumping out to me through 48.  Maybe the Baja vort is a touch east but minute.

[LP08]

AiGFS will be north. Much more interaction out west

[stormtracker]

Not sure where it's gonna go.  Might not be bad necessarily...let's wait and see

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Not sure where it's gonna go.  Might not be bad necessarily...let's wait and see

Gotta love it just spawning in the second NS vort.

[stormtracker]

So over our way, zoomed it..surface isn't really that radically changed so far

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

AiGFS will be north. Much more interaction out west

Worst panel. I’ll take my chances. 

[weathercoins]

Excited to decide whether GFS is the worst model of all time or the most accurate winner for this storm in about three minutes 

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Worst panel. I’ll take my chances. 

How about 700mb?

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So over our way, zoomed it..surface isn't really that radically changed so far

i mean it was the outlier south model. i figured it was coming north but lets see how much lol

[stormtracker]

[LP08]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Worst panel. I’ll take my chances. 

Looks like we lose 700 mb at 90

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Worst panel. I’ll take my chances. 

I don't think 850 was our warm layer

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

How about 700mb?

Fair… about identical but it’s on the edge at 90. No movement at 96