“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[SJonesWX]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It is amped, lol And its the sleet line that remained south, qpf  was a decent bump up here.

Ok I like to see that 1” line jumping up and over my fanny 

my call for MHT: 16”

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

Yeah no kidding. Monster QPF.

[HoarfrostHubb]

19 minutes ago, ptspvd said:

16 year lurker here, have a question. If the sleet does make it into PVD, how much will it cut down accumulations? Hoping the majority of snow falls before transition.


.

 Not much.  If the NAM is right, any concerns from sleet are balanced by an increase in QPF there.   

[moneypitmike]

Like someone always says with the SWFE, in early with the snow and in early with the sleet.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

lol. I mean, are you new here? There’s going to be a dozen people here who base their forecast heavily off the worst possible model run for their BY, despite what the majority compromise may suggest.

Lowering expectations to be pleasantly surprised later 

Who are you and what have you done to our TFlizzy?

[JKEisMan]

Rufus looking like it’s pushing sleet further north too

[WeatherGeek2025]

both of these will end up wrong, go with the middle

 

[subdude]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Our daughter is a lift operator and has a shift for Sunday 3-closing and 7:30-3 on Monday.

I hope they close or at least delay Monday's  start.   Roads will be awful

Wow, I can't see them opening Sunday night. Monday however will be a definite powder day. 

[dryslot]

Let 12z play out.

[WeatherGeek2025]

i feel like the sleet line will fight off with snow line around maybe a few miles north of Tom's River, NJ

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow I hope the NAM is right. I’d have to up my forecast here to 15-20” easily. That’s a monster QPF bomb. 

8" for Kevin and 18" for you? Yikes. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i feel like the sleet line will fight off with snow line around maybe a few miles north of Tom's River, NJ

Ha. GL with that

[Masswx]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Anyone out on the ice today? 

I prob will be

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dendrite said:

Ha. GL with that

Lol Toms River…they’ll be fighting to keep the rain at bay.

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We will trust in you 

Ha, well like I said, I don't think it's terribly substantive unless the 3K wins the battle. Even then, folks get smoked. 

I have to do my final call and I don't think I'm changing anything. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2nd update and likely final call. We are still about 24hrs out so will do an update before the storm if anything major changes. We split the initial 8-16" range up to 8-12/12-16. Less on the s. coast and most in NE MA and Berkshires. 

Some thought on the forecast

• BUFKIT ratios initially start high and drop off closer to 10:1 as the warm air intrudes, this is less of an issue well inland where ratios will be a bit higher. Went with about 12-14:1
• Strong H7 frontogensis tomorrow afternoon/eve will yield a period of 1-3" per hour and move E/NE
• Models still diverge on how far N the mix line gets but most of the damage will be done (floor of 8"), but went with slightly lower totals and bottom end of the 8-16 range there
• Definite signals for enhanced snowfall in E/NE MA but didn't feel confident enough to introduce a new range of 16-22, but highest totals likely there...i put that in text
• Most of snow appears to fall Sunday/Sun Night with any redeveloping snows wrapping around N of the MA boarder and will add to totals there by an inch or two

We are probably one of the most conservative fx out there right now, def more so than the NWS. We'll see how today goes and update if needed, still should be a great storm for most w/ widespread 1 foot+. Biggest concern is southern areas. 

[Torch Tiger]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The cold press is real.  Nobody in SNE is seeing much taint.  

reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.  like the 0z NAM

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol Toms River…they’ll be fighting to keep the rain at bay.

maybe hit 60 there?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

2nd update and likely final call. We are still about 24hrs out so will do an update before the storm if anything major changes. We split the initial 8-16" range up to 8-12/12-16. Less on the s. coast and most in NE MA and Berkshires. 

Some thought on the forecast

• BUFKIT ratios initially start high and drop off closer to 10:1 as the warm air intrudes, this is less of an issue well inland where ratios will be a bit higher. Went with about 12-14:1
• Strong H7 frontogensis tomorrow afternoon/eve will yield a period of 1-3" per hour and move E/NE
• Models still diverge on how far N the mix line gets but most of the damage will be done (floor of 8"), but went with slightly lower totals and bottom end of the 8-16 range there
• Definite signals for enhanced snowfall in E/NE MA but didn't feel confident enough to introduce a new range of 16-22, but highest totals likely there...i put that in text
• Most of snow appears to fall Sunday/Sun Night with any redeveloping snows wrapping around N of the MA boarder and will add to totals there by an inch or two

We are probably one of the most conservative fx out there right now, def more so than the NWS. We'll see how today goes and update if needed, still should be a great storm for most w/ widespread 1 foot+. Biggest concern is southern areas. 

Good map and explanation. Totally reasonable. 

[Hoth]

Amazing, a few days ago this thing was correcting north from the MA and I thought we were golden for a classic all-snow event in SNE. Now it's "congrats Dendrite" and another sloppy mess. Shoulda known.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

maybe hit 60 there?

Replacing shoveling with installing?

[dryslot]

Slop on the cop down there?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Amazing, a few days ago this thing was correcting north from the MA and I thought we were golden for a classic all-snow event in SNE. Now it's "congrats Dendrite" and another sloppy mess. Shoulda known.  

The north surge started too early for the So84 crowd.

[SeanInWayland]

LFG 6z GFS Kuchera 6Z Euro depth

Insane depths in the Southern Adirondacks. Or,
to be completely honest, more like the depths I recall as a kid in the 70’s


.

[DomNH]

Wonder if we're going to lose some of the great snow growth further north if we warm some in the mid-levels. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

IDK, it just seems to me like the NAM is really strugging to nail down the mid-levels.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Amazing, a few days ago this thing was correcting north from the MA and I thought we were golden for a classic all-snow event in SNE. Now it's "congrats Dendrite" and another sloppy mess. Shoulda known.  

Still, a few days ago a total whiff was a possibility. Isnt 8-12 not good still? lets say bottom of end of that, 8". Still a good event considering congrats NC/VA with cirrus here. No way it doesnt snow several inches on the front end for many hours. 

[OrangeCTWX]

Oof no chance at a foot down here with the NAM/RRFS . What a bummer

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

8" for Kevin and 18" for you? Yikes. 

When will you guys raise totals?

[Hoth]

This feels like March '17 all over. Quick snow thump while we watch the sleet line race across the Sound and know our joy will soon crumble.