“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie looks great. LFG!

Naked snow angels on that run. 

[DJln491]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1144 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Potential for snow accumulations
  between 6 and 12 inches, with localized accumulations over 12
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Southern New England.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
  conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday
  morning and evening commutes. Travel during the Monday morning
  commute is likely to be very difficult.

[Typhoon Tip]

It seems ( to me ) that we're in 'looking for what can go wrong' mode, which is what happens when we are pretty much at the ceiling of the given event's emergence in the guidance.  

It appears we are getting pretty consistent mean between 11 and 14" out of all this stuff, and so it's negotiating details to add a couple or take a couple away.  We keep coming back to that range

[TrueBlue]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Gun to head, 8-12" up here right now.

What about northern Franklin county?

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It seems ( to me ) that we're in 'looking for what can go wrong' mode, which is what happens when we are pretty much at the ceiling of the given event's emergence in the guidance.  

It appears we are getting pretty consistent mean between 11 and 14" out of all this stuff, and so it's negotiating details to add a couple or take a couple away.  We keep coming back to that range

 

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Me too

I think we've all had a run-in with that perfect someone now escaped over their rear horizon.  ... perhaps never truly forgotten. The what-might-have-been if were not for the saboteur within.   They contrive these torpedo designes to sink the relationship, manifesting all these frustrating plausibility's that we have to consider or else we're dismissive - see how they trap you?   But, these implosion fears, they're far less likely true. So it's all but impossible trying to give them respect.   Relationship, over.   Brilliant ghosts.

These people have fear of intimacy with this storm!  HAHAHA       

That girl sure did a number on you, huh?

I kid!  

What could possibly go wrong at this juncture?! 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlue said:

What about northern Franklin county?

Same

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie was juiced. Kept that onshore flow into Monday evening to add a few additional inches. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, TrueBlue said:

What about northern Franklin county?

Same for now.

[TrueBlue]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Same for now.

like

[HoarfrostHubb]

Happy Scooter is much more tolerable than beach weather in January Scooter

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie was juiced. Kept that onshore flow into Monday evening to add a few additional inches. 

definitely at least an homage to a CCB stinger upon exit.  Granted it's a honey bee compared to a bald faced hornet's jabber but it's there nonetheless. 

gosh for winter weather goobers we are sitting in a fun time.   relish in this folks... it's been years, YEARS, since we could be sitting at 90 hour before a major, with 12 model cycles of possible upshot solutions to dose our dopa drips  hahaha

[dryslot]

Watches are hoisted to the zones to my south.

[wxsniss]

An example of what I and others posted earlier... 0z ICON last night showed this as well (but backed off at 12z today).

This is from 12z UK, keeps low level easterly flow into 0z-6z Tuesday... this is what we'd need to get us closer to 20":

(EDIT: this is 850, 0z Tuesday, from 12z UK run Jan 22):

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Happy Scooter is much more tolerable than beach weather in January Scooter

When you have been absolutely positively beaten into a pulp for four years in this long season called winter, eventually it wears on you. I’ve paid my dues.

[tamarack]

54 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Sorry for referring it to a name lol I can’t remember dates


.

2/8-9/2013.  Scattered 30"+ (including 31.9" at PWM, their biggest on record) and lots of 20s.  My area had 9-11" while AUG (25 mi SE) and LEW (40 mi s.) had ~25".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Weenies are hoisted to the zones in my mouth.

Yea, just open up today...one and all, right in the kissah

[kazimirkai]

38 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Guess NWS-Boston has seen enough, Watches are up.

Not Albany and New York yet, interestingly. Guess they're still less certain despite NBM outputs

[Chrisrotary12]

Just realized that we are still 72 hours from first flakes. So much time for things to go wrong improve more!

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie was juiced. Kept that onshore flow into Monday evening to add a few additional inches. 

This has inches of hang back snows written all over it 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Just realized that we are still 72 hours from first flakes. So much time for things to go wrong improve more!

One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Not Albany and New York yet, interestingly. Guess they're still less certain despite NBM outputs

Albany is always the crayon chewer of the bunch what else is new

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[wxsniss]

12z AIFS crushes and continues to hint at lingering coastal through Monday evening

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

That girl sure did a number on you, huh?

I kid!  

What could possibly go wrong at this juncture?! 

heh... I know your kidding but,  both those are a reflection of what I am seeing in the moods and possible reasons for the moods, going on in the people around me?

yet you've made them about me.  HAHAHA.  

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Not Albany and New York yet, interestingly. Guess they're still less certain despite NBM outputs

It's probably just going to take time to update their afternoon package. Watches are coming for all in SNE and probably even CNE soon. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles. 

It's about damn time. 

[moneypitmike]

43 minutes ago, radarman said:

If this turns into widespread 10-12" you hope there won't be a lot of disappointment here

In the next few days I'll be watching out for drying midlevels showing up, especially if the trough keeps trending west.   As mentioned if it goes the other way and you start seeing mesobands and mid-level magic or ivt snows then we'd start to push the expectations up.

2/5/14 was widespread 10-14" even down to DC and it was an awesome storm.  Just hope a redux of that wouldn't be considered a fail.

I’ll be happy if i can even round up to double digits.

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Same

Wrong franklin county

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Watches are hoisted to the zones to my south.

South of me too, FTL.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

12z AIFS crushes and continues to hint at lingering coastal through Monday evening

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... 

There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place.  And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. 

But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off...  verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd.  The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance.   

However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ?  questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window.  How much or in time..  The more the consolidation the bigger the 2nd low.  Hell ... even 25% doesn't reduce the lead but will add a ton to the 2nd.  

[snowman21]

Watches up for OKX zones now.

[dryslot]

12z Euro still a big hit, I don't know why its doing this though, But for the last few days, When it gets to hr84, It jumps to hr96 or so/