“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[mreaves]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Tonight's isn't squat really.

 

 

 

Don't be dissin' my .2!

[Chrisrotary12]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Watch out, you might catch shit for this lol.

But I agree. I’m selling any secondary involvement. I’d guess this ends up a pretty uniform 6-10” spot 12

I’m glad this has trended north for us, I just think there are still a lot of caution flags. 

[wx2fish]

Too early to get into details but the DGZ is like sfc-500 for a time of the euro soundings. Definitely has potential to fluff totals up a bit. 

[CT Rain]

That's a deep DGZ lol

[The 4 Seasons]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Watch out, you might catch shit for this lol.

But I agree. I’m selling any secondary involvement. I’d guess this ends up a pretty uniform 6-10” spot 12

I agree it could certainly end up that way especially if it keeps ticking N a bit and its just a front end punch to slot, but right now there's also a lot of potential for much higher numbers - we're still 4 days out from 18Z ish. I don't think i've ever seen you not be conservative to very conservative for every storm we've had and ive been on here for over 10 years. That's your thing, sometimes it works out.

[WeatherGeek2025]

My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer!  

[Damage In Tolland]

At least 50:1 ratios it seems 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Too early to get into details but the DGZ is like sfc-500 for a time of the euro soundings. Definitely has potential to fluff totals up a bit. 

It's showing up like that on most soundings....10 to 1 will be way too low to use in this storm imho. I'd go the "cold storm' climo right now of about 14 to 1 but I could see something higher than that too...but you never want to forecast higher unless you're really close with obvious model agreement. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

55 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

probably the biggest storm since March 2023 here

Well... 30+" storms aren't that common...

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is pretty solid...I think this will increase a bit too as we get closer unless something drastically changes aloft.

 

 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

That's a deep DGZ lol

This is wild ha

[HoarfrostHubb]

That's beefy for an ensemble mean 4 days out

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If have F5 model package, you can draw on their maps..that's what I use. 

What does the Euro Narcan say?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

29 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

In agreement with this but might remove the word hellacious from my current thinking.

There are a lot of signs that point to this being a very strong thump especially south of the pike.. extremely anomalous WWA setup . As is euro is like 9+ hours of 1-2” + rates around here.. 

[OrangeCTWX]

Been busy at work and haven’t been able to lol much. Are things still relatively tame from a wind perspective?

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Tonight's isn't squat really.

 

 

 

Missing out on the bulk of the big dog, we need to get as many scraps as we can.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's showing up like that on most soundings....10 to 1 will be way too low to use in this storm imho. I'd go the "cold storm' climo right now of about 14 to 1 but I could see something higher than that too...but you never want to forecast higher unless you're really close with obvious model agreement. 

Going more than 15:1 is so dangerous. We've seen many fluff bombs like Jan 7 2022 and Feb 7 2021 produce 15-25:1 but you're just asking for it when you start a forecast with those kind of insane ratios as an average across the entire storm.

But many of our positive busts come from underestimating ratios and we end up getting 20:1+ ...like Feb 11-12th, 2006. 

Light wind also helps, strong winds can cut back ratios a bit. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Been busy at work and haven’t been able to lol much. Are things still relatively tame from a wind perspective?

I think so. Coast in particular ern MA may have gusts to 30kt a or so. Nothing insane. Perhaps this gets strong if the low comes closer or becomes more intense than currently modeled. Interior west of any CF will have light winds and stack up. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There are a lot of signs that point to this being a very strong thump especially south of the pike.. extremely anomalous WWA setup . As is euro is like 9+ hours of 1-2” + rates around here.. 

My name is Humpidty pronounced THUMPIDTY 

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is wild ha

damn. cant remember the last time i saw the dgz all the way in the basement like that, that is crazy. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

damn. cant remember the last time i saw the dgz all the way in the basement like that, that is crazy. 

Right  

Probably something you'd see in like central Alaska lol 

[Henry's Weather]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer!  

Apart from amount discontinuities and insane totals, decent job on the graphics man

[weatherwiz]

Wow I'm shocked to see Winter Storm Watch as far south as Houston (looks like for ice)...I don't see anything indicating they will get icing that far south. I know that far south it takes like 3 drops of frozen liquid but very odd

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wow I'm shocked to see Winter Storm Watch as far south as Houston (looks like for ice)...I don't see anything indicating they will get icing that far south. I know that far south it takes like 3 drops of frozen liquid but very odd

They issue winter storm watches when a cold win blows down there

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Apart from amount discontinuities and insane totals, decent job on the graphics man

thanks i got an instagram page u can follow... @nycweathernow

[kazimirkai]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wow I'm shocked to see Winter Storm Watch as far south as Houston (looks like for ice)...I don't see anything indicating they will get icing that far south. I know that far south it takes like 3 drops of frozen liquid but very odd

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

[weatherwiz]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

They issue winter storm watches when a cold win blows down there

I see it now...I looked further ahead to Sunday with I guess if you want to call it the second wave 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain

Went to the AMS in Austin in 2018 and we got stuck in Austin for an extra two days because our flight got cancelled for wintry precip. The whole town of Austin was virtually shut down...not a single car on the road. They legit got like 2 second of sleet haha. Missed the first two days of the spring semester.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I agree it could certainly end up that way especially if it keeps ticking N a bit and its just a front end punch to slot, but right now there's also a lot of potential for much higher numbers - we're still 4 days out from 18Z ish. I don't think i've ever seen you not be conservative to very conservative for every storm we've had and ive been on here for over 10 years. That's your thing, sometimes it works out.

I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios.

However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think the trend at 12z, minus the Canadian, was decidedly less potential CCB influence from another developing low pressure. I think that’s the key. And if we don’t get that, you have a hard time reaching big totals.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but don’t we normally see huge ratios in a more traditional coastal? I’m not sure in this type of setup you are going to get 15+:1 ratios.

However, even an inch of water at 12-13:1 is close to a foot of snow.

Lock in the Euro AI and call it a day. That's how I hope this unfolds.