1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[Harry Perry]

22 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man it's hard to look at those big totals taper off as you head NE. It seems either were battling precip issues or suppression. 

[Stevo6899]

6 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Rip twister cast.

[Harry Perry]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Rip twister cast.

Movies nowadays just aren’t the same. Mid 90’s were prime. 
 

 

 

[Harry Perry]

17 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Pretty remarkable the differences between  gfs and rgem. Rgem been consistently showing 10+ for most of the metro area.

Also RGEM spitting out 0.4 to 0.6” with 25-30:1 ratios would be pretty damn nice. 

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, Harry Perry said:

Also RGEM spitting out .04-.06” with 25-30:1 ratios would be pretty damn nice. 

Yea dry air and virga worries me. Gonna be a sharp cutoff as always. I thought about flying back from Florida but for some reason this thing isn't getting me excited. Plus it's gonna be 80 down here the next 3 days.

[Radtechwxman]

58 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man it's hard to look at those big totals taper off as you head NE. It seems either were battling precip issues or suppression. 

Dry air. Big arctic high with that cold dry air will eat at precip shield on n/nw side. How nw it gets is million dollar question. 0z gfs downright depressing. Seems like each run stunts better totals south. I hope it's wrong. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Gem is northwest with the low but has the same northern cutoff being brutal 

[McHenrySnow]

39 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea dry air and virga worries me. Gonna be a sharp cutoff as always. I thought about flying back from Florida but for some reason this thing isn't getting me excited. Plus it's gonna be 80 down here the next 3 days.

Sounds miserable. 

[Jackstraw]

13 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Dry air. Big arctic high with that cold dry air will eat at precip shield on n/nw side. How nw it gets is million dollar question. 0z gfs downright depressing. Seems like each run stunts better totals south. I hope it's wrong. 

Yep. I posted about that earlier today. When we get these NE flows on the backside dry air in the DGZ  can be a mf#$%er unless your just down wind of an open lake. Models are taking their time juicing up at 700mb. BUT we also get some of our biggest snows once the moisture wraps around. Granted you're a little farther NW but I still think once the juice gets wrapped we could get a quasi double hit TROWAL type setup on the N/NW side. Thats where the extremely cold  air is going to get smacked by a cross country warm source moisture filled slap. Trying to stay positive and thinking the GFS is off on this one. At least could be riding the line of single to double digits instead of dust to 2in  

[ILSNOW]

UKMET brings snow north compared to 12z

X

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

17 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Yep. I posted about that earlier today. When we get these NE flows on the backside dry air in the DGZ  can be a mf#$%er unless your just down wind of an open lake. Models are taking their time juicing up at 700mb. BUT we also get some of our biggest snows once the moisture wraps around. Granted you're a little farther NW but I still think once the juice gets wrapped we could get a quasi double hit TROWAL type setup on the N/NW side. Thats where the extremely cold  air is going to get smacked by a cross country warm source moisture filled slap. Trying to stay positive and thinking the GFS is off on this one. At least could be riding the line of single to double digits instead of dust to 2in  

I like the way you think

11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

UKMET brings snow north compared to 12z

X

 

 

God I wish. Lol

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, McHenrySnow said:

Sounds miserable. 

Enjoy that -15 on those nipples in the morning chief.

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea dry air and virga worries me. Gonna be a sharp cutoff as always. I thought about flying back from Florida but for some reason this thing isn't getting me excited. Plus it's gonna be 80 down here the next 3 days.

 

Definitely jealous...

[Harry Perry]

00z Euro trending drier on the NW fringes. Precip shield is shrinking. My guess is from the cold. 

[KeenerWx]

23 hours ago, KeenerWx said:

Liking 2-5” locally. 

Still looks good. Will go 3.9” final call. Let’s go! 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Chicago916]

Welp, instead of any positive shift north the last 36hrs, every model shifted south. So much for cautious optimism. Maybe we'll be able to smell the snow.

[Stevo6899]

If only the low didnt transfer so fast and strengthen as it moves up into Ohio. Perfect track for Detroit. Potential big dog wasted, shame.

[mimillman]

13 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Going 6 final call imby with the long duration lightly lake enhanced graze job

[A-L-E-K]

GFS really owned the competition this time around

[michsnowfreak]

49 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

If only the low didnt transfer so fast and strengthen as it moves up into Ohio. Perfect track for Detroit. Potential big dog wasted, shame.

Theres plenty of snow already on the ground ahead of the storm. Fly in sunday morning and you won't know the difference.

[Stevo6899]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Theres plenty of snow already on the ground ahead of the storm. Fly in sunday morning and you won't know the difference.

No thanks. Crazy there's gonna be almost a 100 degrees temp difference between my house in Michigan and Florida. It is pretty rare tho that y'all might see 6 inches on top of pretty decent snow depth already.

[Powerball]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Theres plenty of snow already on the ground ahead of the storm. Fly in sunday morning and you won't know the difference.

Oh yes we would...

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

Oh yes we would...

Nobody gets more satisfaction from weeks old dirty crusty snow piles.

[IWXwx]

14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

DT's still doin' his thing, eh?

[Chicago WX]

I was holding out hope that the euro was going to be right, but every run erodes more and more of the northern edge. GFS took it to the woodshed on that aspect. Final call for myby is mood flakes through dim sun. Great start to this winter, but it went kapoot after that. Can’t end soon enough.

Regardless, good luck to those to the east and south. Hope it over performs. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Oh yes we would...

I mean, you guys are sitting in warm climates from afar, youre not even here. Yeah it sucks that were missing the brunt of a massive storm. But some of the whining about the east coast lol. Theyve literally been in a decade long record snow drought, let em get a climo storm for once. It was bound to happen. 

[A-L-E-K]

Just now, Chicago WX said:

I was holding out hope that the euro was going to be right, but every run erodes more and more of the northern edge. GFS took it to the woodshed on that aspect. Final call for myby is mood flakes through dim sun. Great start to this winter, but it went kapoot after that. Can’t end soon enough.

Regardless, good luck to those to the east and south. Hope it over performs. 

yeah, getting watch the deep south get an epic ice storm will make up for the L here

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Nobody gets more satisfaction from weeks old dirty crusty snow piles.

Trust me theres nothing dirty about the state of the snowpack right now. Its fresh drifty arctic looking powder.

[A-L-E-K]

u tell 'em